Goldstein - To start or to not start, that is the question

[LordSneeze]

Very good stats mate, and I cannot really argue with that at all. But the scope for improvement is still not there.

Nic Nat averaged 103 SC points, and averaged 114 after Round 7, and his tog ran at only 74%. Averaged 34 hitouts per game, and 12 touches. And unsurprisingly, each of Nat's larger games was when he was on field for over 80% of the game.

Round 9, 152 v Geelong, 83%
Round 11, 147 v Essendon, 81%
Round 12, 146 v  Richmond, 83%

And two games where he went 130, and 133, he played only 61 and 66% of game time. He averaged only 2 marks per game also, and kicked 17 goals. Sinclair is gone. Lycett was third in line. A FULL preseason, NO offseason surgery, and hurting from the previous year. Picked up some good players, and has some good mids at his feet. Is still learning the game. But the biggest thing is, when I compare Nic Nat and Martin, one player has to do a hell of a lot to score well, while the other does not have to do much at all for CD to reward him. I'm suggesting right here and now, that Naitanui is in for a huge season.

For me right now, Nat + $$ + upside > Martin & getting a whole lot of leather to score points

We'll see how Martin travels after Nat Round 1, and then Goldy in Round 2. But each to their own.

Totally understand.
As a R1 keeper though im happy to take a player that have a low standard deviation with a slight upside being disposal efficiency. Especially seeing as I feel my second pick will be a player that has upside and is likely to have a lot more variance in scores. Either Nic Nat or Blicavs are the current thoughts.

Nic Nat still worries me as people hype him every year and other than 2012 he has never put a full season together. No doubt his upside is huge.

[AaronKirk]

You have to remember that the vast majority of rucks don't reach their peak till their late 20s, early 30s.

Nic Nat will be 26 next season. The scope for improvement in a lot if he can learn to get his hands on the ball more around the ground.

He is a lock in my side for round one.

About Goldy - I am not committed to him yet. I want to start with him but will have to wait for another couple of weeks till prices come out to see if he can fit in my preferred structure.

[dottman]

You've all convinced me, I'm starting Martin/Nic Nat any injuries and cull rookie trade up to Goldy.

As 4 Jacobs he can "Get stuffed".

[RaisyDaisy]

Damn, I was hoping that based on how this thread was going that Martin was going to be the FF lovechild of 2016 and everyone would be picking him, while I quietly had NicNat locked in

NicNat is the biggest ruck lock for my team without a shadow of a doubt. As long as he gets through another solid preseason he locked beyond belief. Goldy most likely will be starting along side of him for me

[_wato]

I can delete it RD? ;)

[LordSneeze]

I can delete it RD? ;)

Too Late

Damn, I was hoping that based on how this thread was going that Martin was going to be the FF lovechild of 2016 and everyone would be picking him, while I quietly had NicNat locked in

NicNat is the biggest ruck lock for my team without a shadow of a doubt. As long as he gets through another solid preseason he locked beyond belief. Goldy most likely will be starting along side of him for me

NicNat is going to be a great pick if he stays fit and at his price will be hard to pass up as my second ruck.
Starting to think a Martin/Nic Nat combo will be the one i go with if they both get through preseason.

[Speculator]

I personally do not select fully priced ruckmen to start the year and that strategy has served me very well for many years. I won't be starting Goldy in 2016 but clearly will upgrade to him at some point.

[Southstorm]

If you don't start Goldy, you'll require an insane amount of leftover cash or two downgrade trades to get him in the team. Much better off to start him in my opinion.

[Drak]

After starting with two premo ruck man last year, I'm never going to try the 1 premo 1 (could be great) strat.

Goldy at half mast can still outscore any ruckman in the comp, North will seriously push for a flag again this year, and barring injury Goldy will be at the forefront of its premiership push.

He is the Ablett of the rucks, reason all you want to not get him, you'll regret it.

[Holz]

After starting with two premo ruck man last year, I'm never going to try the 1 premo 1 (could be great) strat.

Goldy at half mast can still outscore any ruckman in the comp, North will seriously push for a flag again this year, and barring injury Goldy will be at the forefront of its premiership push.

He is the Ablett of the rucks, reason all you want to not get him, you'll regret it.

Good call.

however Goldy is more of a lock to be the best in his position then Ablett

so Ablett wishes he was the Goldy of the mids :P

[quinny88]

After starting with two premo ruck man last year, I'm never going to try the 1 premo 1 (could be great) strat.

Goldy at half mast can still outscore any ruckman in the comp, North will seriously push for a flag again this year, and barring injury Goldy will be at the forefront of its premiership push.

He is the Ablett of the rucks, reason all you want to not get him, you'll regret it.

Good call.

however Goldy is more of a lock to be the best in his position then Ablett

so Ablett wishes he was the Goldy of the mids :P

It's about bang for your buck though and Goldy is at the tipping point. Will still get him if I can but R1 will be my last position I fill. If I don't have enough left over I'm happy to go with Martin or Mummy and hope they can push close to Goldys average.

On a side note, is anyone worried about the rotation cap affecting ruckman? A lot of people forcasting that teams will go with 2 ruckman 

[fasttrack13]

After starting with two premo ruck man last year, I'm never going to try the 1 premo 1 (could be great) strat.

Goldy at half mast can still outscore any ruckman in the comp, North will seriously push for a flag again this year, and barring injury Goldy will be at the forefront of its premiership push.

He is the Ablett of the rucks, reason all you want to not get him, you'll regret it.

Good call.

however Goldy is more of a lock to be the best in his position then Ablett

so Ablett wishes he was the Goldy of the mids :P

It's about bang for your buck though and Goldy is at the tipping point. Will still get him if I can but R1 will be my last position I fill. If I don't have enough left over I'm happy to go with Martin or Mummy and hope they can push close to Goldys average.

On a side note, is anyone worried about the rotation cap affecting ruckman? A lot of people forcasting that teams will go with 2 ruckman

For teams that can it's probably going to be a Jolly + Leigh Brown situation again. IMO the substitution rule made it more likely for teams to go with 2 ruckmen knowing they could sub one off to inject pace.
Teams like Adelaide, Geelong, North won't having Jenkins, Brown, Blicavs, Clark etc who are flexible rucks who can play elswhere can afford the single ruckman. Same with nicnat and west coast having lycett.
However hawthorn, Collingwood and others i don't think have that flexibility.
White under performing for the pies and who do Hawks have that can play ruck? Unless they get Roughead again...

You'd probably have to analyse teams and look at there structures to actually find out what sort of impact.
Ruckmen don't generally spend much time on the bench though spending 85-95% TOG

Jacobs, Martin, Leuenberger, Sandilands, Mumford, Goldstein the ones I'd say wouldn't be effected...

[quinny88]

After starting with two premo ruck man last year, I'm never going to try the 1 premo 1 (could be great) strat.

Goldy at half mast can still outscore any ruckman in the comp, North will seriously push for a flag again this year, and barring injury Goldy will be at the forefront of its premiership push.

He is the Ablett of the rucks, reason all you want to not get him, you'll regret it.

Good call.

however Goldy is more of a lock to be the best in his position then Ablett

so Ablett wishes he was the Goldy of the mids :P

It's about bang for your buck though and Goldy is at the tipping point. Will still get him if I can but R1 will be my last position I fill. If I don't have enough left over I'm happy to go with Martin or Mummy and hope they can push close to Goldys average.

On a side note, is anyone worried about the rotation cap affecting ruckman? A lot of people forcasting that teams will go with 2 ruckman

For teams that can it's probably going to be a Jolly + Leigh Brown situation again. IMO the substitution rule made it more likely for teams to go with 2 ruckmen knowing they could sub one off to inject pace.
Teams like Adelaide, Geelong, North won't having Jenkins, Brown, Blicavs, Clark etc who are flexible rucks who can play elswhere can afford the single ruckman. Same with nicnat and west coast having lycett.
However hawthorn, Collingwood and others i don't think have that flexibility.
White under performing for the pies and who do Hawks have that can play ruck? Unless they get Roughead again...

You'd probably have to analyse teams and look at there structures to actually find out what sort of impact.
Ruckmen don't generally spend much time on the bench though spending 85-95% TOG

Jacobs, Martin, Leuenberger, Sandilands, Mumford, Goldstein the ones I'd say wouldn't be effected...

Yeah good points you make FT. Will be interesting to see if any teams go with 2 genuine ruckman. Will be a mad scramble to change ruck line ups when teams are named for round 1

[BomberSam]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

Enter Kurt Tippett. He only needs to make 16.2k to get to 500k. At the moment I am starting Martin and Tippett with Leuey as cover in the forward line.

[Southstorm]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

Enter Kurt Tippett. He only needs to make 16.2k to get to 500k. At the moment I am starting Martin and Tippett with Leuey as cover in the forward line.

Defeats the purpose. I'd value a trade as being worth a lot more than 16.2k. Tippett and Sinclair will be good cover, but they aren't going to be premium rucks and they aren't going to make any more than 100k. So, there's no good reason to have either when you can have a premium ruck at the expense of a line that will be far easier to upgrade, and when you can have Leuenberger who will do the same but for much less.