Goldstein - To start or to not start, that is the question

[RaisyDaisy]

As I mentioned earlier I wouldn't be starting Luey unless he has FWD DPP

When he was averaging 95-100 as far as I remember he was the number 1 ruck with little support. Essendon will have Luey and Belly playing together, so I think 95+ is no chance for Luey, but if he could push 90 as F6 and provide cover he would be worth start for me (in the fwd line)

hes +300k, you'd at best be starting him F4 unless your going real light elsewhere. There should be more value in he range around and below that.

Pretty sure he means F6 when team is effectively complete

Yep

Start him at F4 and then he turns into F6

That's the only way I would use Luey

[LordSneeze]

Right now there are arguably 9 rucks that will make up the majority of the starting rucks lines with Currie as the bench one.

Goldy, Jacobs, Martin, Nic Nat, Maric, Sandi, Blicavs (If still ruck), Mumford & Luey

Out of these i rule Maric out myself as the HOTA destroyed his scores making him not really worth it. After the discussion i doubt i will start Goldy or Luey, so for me it is do i start Jacobs and Martin, or do i take a risk on Nic Nat, Sandi or Blicavs

[quinny88]

Right now there are arguably 9 rucks that will make up the majority of the starting rucks lines with Currie as the bench one.

Goldy, Jacobs, Martin, Nic Nat, Maric, Sandi, Blicavs (If still ruck), Mumford & Luey

Out of these i rule Maric out myself as the HOTA destroyed his scores making him not really worth it. After the discussion i doubt i will start Goldy or Luey, so for me it is do i start Jacobs and Martin, or do i take a risk on Nic Nat, Sandi or Blicavs

So if you're starting Jacobs and Martin I assume you're ruling out Goldy for the year and hoping they can match him?

[LordSneeze]

Right now there are arguably 9 rucks that will make up the majority of the starting rucks lines with Currie as the bench one.

Goldy, Jacobs, Martin, Nic Nat, Maric, Sandi, Blicavs (If still ruck), Mumford & Luey

Out of these i rule Maric out myself as the HOTA destroyed his scores making him not really worth it. After the discussion i doubt i will start Goldy or Luey, so for me it is do i start Jacobs and Martin, or do i take a risk on Nic Nat, Sandi or Blicavs

So if you're starting Jacobs and Martin I assume you're ruling out Goldy for the year and hoping they can match him?

If i did yes i really dont think Goldy will perform aswell as he did last year.,
I feel the interchange cap will help Martin getting more touches around the ground thus increasing his value, i see him as a must have this year. Its just who else i put with him.
Jacobs disposal efficency was down last year on what i expect, if he rectifies this i see him increasing to a 110+ average. The only thing that worries me with Jacobs is the loss of Danger getting the clearances and score assists when he broke through the packs to take a shot on goal.

[GM]

Goldy is in his prime .
Can't see him dropping off.
No risk for me here Goldy/Martin.

[_wato]

Goldy & Nic Nat

Martin is not a must have, if Nic Nat has a full year with no injuries I can just about bet that he will outscore Martin, sayig that right now

[GM]

Goldy & Nic Nat

Martin is not a must have, if Nic Nat has a full year with no injuries I can just about bet that he will outscore Martin, sayig that right now

If he can take some marks Wato , I recon you're right.

[_wato]

If he can take some marks Wato , I recon you're right.

Yep, and he started to do that as the year went on, Sinclair gone and Lycett in, more ruck time for Nat, general progression as a ruckman to gain more touches, marks etc, a full preseason with no offseason surgery, the embarrassment of the granny, Redden coming across with Priddis and Shuey, I can see Nat averaging 115-120 easy, he averaged 114 after Round 7 this year

S Martin averaged 22 touches a game, as a ruckman he is poor, and his DT numbers were over a 114 avg, he will not continue that, Rocky/Hanley with full years, Bell and Bastinac across too, I just can't see him bettering Naitanui

I could be wrong, but in no way is he a must

[Holz]

If he can take some marks Wato , I recon you're right.

Yep, and he started to do that as the year went on, Sinclair gone and Lycett in, more ruck time for Nat, general progression as a ruckman to gain more touches, marks etc, a full preseason with no offseason surgery, the embarrassment of the granny, Redden coming across with Priddis and Shuey, I can see Nat averaging 115-120 easy, he averaged 114 after Round 7 this year

S Martin averaged 22 touches a game, as a ruckman he is poor, and his DT numbers were over a 114 avg, he will not continue that, Rocky/Hanley with full years, Bell and Bastinac across too, I just can't see him bettering Naitanui

I could be wrong, but in no way is he a must

im sold

Goldy NicNat combo locked and loaded

[quinny88]

If he can take some marks Wato , I recon you're right.

Yep, and he started to do that as the year went on, Sinclair gone and Lycett in, more ruck time for Nat, general progression as a ruckman to gain more touches, marks etc, a full preseason with no offseason surgery, the embarrassment of the granny, Redden coming across with Priddis and Shuey, I can see Nat averaging 115-120 easy, he averaged 114 after Round 7 this year

S Martin averaged 22 touches a game, as a ruckman he is poor, and his DT numbers were over a 114 avg, he will not continue that, Rocky/Hanley with full years, Bell and Bastinac across too, I just can't see him bettering Naitanui

I could be wrong, but in no way is he a must

Far from poor, he was 5th in the league for hitouts.
Keep in mind Berger is gone now too so he will likely ruck all day. Expect him and NicNat to average around 110

[_wato]

Yep Holz I agree, scored 10/13 tons and 6 over 130+ in the time he averaged 114 too

I meant poor when relating him to the cream of the AFL, he is not good (in ruck terms) when it comes to playing Goldy, Sandi, Jacobs etc, he gets towelled up in the ruck.. And you can't tell me Berger played in the ruck for more than 2-3 minutes at a time, Martin played there predominately the whole game, no difference will be made

[LordSneeze]

If he can take some marks Wato , I recon you're right.

Yep, and he started to do that as the year went on, Sinclair gone and Lycett in, more ruck time for Nat, general progression as a ruckman to gain more touches, marks etc, a full preseason with no offseason surgery, the embarrassment of the granny, Redden coming across with Priddis and Shuey, I can see Nat averaging 115-120 easy, he averaged 114 after Round 7 this year

S Martin averaged 22 touches a game, as a ruckman he is poor, and his DT numbers were over a 114 avg, he will not continue that, Rocky/Hanley with full years, Bell and Bastinac across too, I just can't see him bettering Naitanui

I could be wrong, but in no way is he a must

Far from poor, he was 5th in the league for hitouts.
Keep in mind Berger is gone now too so he will likely ruck all day. Expect him and NicNat to average around 110

I have my reasons why I see him as a lock

In matches (8) that Luey didn't play last year Martin averaged
24 Poss
37 Hitouts
117 SC Points
91 mins TOG per game
Only 2 f these matches were below 100 SC Points

As this is such a small sample add in the matches from 2014 (19)
22 Poss
32 Hitouts
114 SC Points
Of these 19 matches only 4 were below 100 with a low of 84

The fact that last year was higher than the total shows that he trended up year on year without Luey. The TOG is good as it proves he can play full games as a solo ruck.

Not to say that Nic Nat isn't worth picking, for all I know he might be my other ruck, but I cannot go past Martin this year.

[quinny88]

If he can take some marks Wato , I recon you're right.

Yep, and he started to do that as the year went on, Sinclair gone and Lycett in, more ruck time for Nat, general progression as a ruckman to gain more touches, marks etc, a full preseason with no offseason surgery, the embarrassment of the granny, Redden coming across with Priddis and Shuey, I can see Nat averaging 115-120 easy, he averaged 114 after Round 7 this year

S Martin averaged 22 touches a game, as a ruckman he is poor, and his DT numbers were over a 114 avg, he will not continue that, Rocky/Hanley with full years, Bell and Bastinac across too, I just can't see him bettering Naitanui

I could be wrong, but in no way is he a must

Far from poor, he was 5th in the league for hitouts.
Keep in mind Berger is gone now too so he will likely ruck all day. Expect him and NicNat to average around 110

I have my reasons why I see him as a lock

In matches (8) that Luey didn't play last year Martin averaged
24 Poss
37 Hitouts
117 SC Points
91 mins TOG per game
Only 2 f these matches were below 100 SC Points

As this is such a small sample add in the matches from 2014 (19)
22 Poss
32 Hitouts
114 SC Points
Of these 19 matches only 4 were below 100 with a low of 84

The fact that last year was higher than the total shows that he trended up year on year without Luey. The TOG is good as it proves he can play full games as a solo ruck.

Not to say that Nic Nat isn't worth picking, for all I know he might be my other ruck, but I cannot go past Martin this year.

Nice write up! Justifies picking him even more! I guess the only slight concern is if the play West as well but I wouldn't think they would?

[quinny88]

Yep Holz I agree, scored 10/13 tons and 6 over 130+ in the time he averaged 114 too

I meant poor when relating him to the cream of the AFL, he is not good (in ruck terms) when it comes to playing Goldy, Sandi, Jacobs etc, he gets towelled up in the ruck.. And you can't tell me Berger played in the ruck for more than 2-3 minutes at a time, Martin played there predominately the whole game, no difference will be made

Well against those guys his high possession count is what makes him so good to have.
Even if he doesn't improve with no Luey, I will still take 110 any day. NicNat is a great pick also but I don't think it's as clear cut as you.
A Martin/NicNat combo is a serious possibility for me

[_wato]

Very good stats mate, and I cannot really argue with that at all. But the scope for improvement is still not there.

Nic Nat averaged 103 SC points, and averaged 114 after Round 7, and his tog ran at only 74%. Averaged 34 hitouts per game, and 12 touches. And unsurprisingly, each of Nat's larger games was when he was on field for over 80% of the game.

Round 9, 152 v Geelong, 83%
Round 11, 147 v Essendon, 81%
Round 12, 146 v  Richmond, 83%

And two games where he went 130, and 133, he played only 61 and 66% of game time. He averaged only 2 marks per game also, and kicked 17 goals. Sinclair is gone. Lycett was third in line. A FULL preseason, NO offseason surgery, and hurting from the previous year. Picked up some good players, and has some good mids at his feet. Is still learning the game. But the biggest thing is, when I compare Nic Nat and Martin, one player has to do a hell of a lot to score well, while the other does not have to do much at all for CD to reward him. I'm suggesting right here and now, that Naitanui is in for a huge season.

For me right now, Nat + $$ + upside > Martin & getting a whole lot of leather to score points

We'll see how Martin travels after Nat Round 1, and then Goldy in Round 2. But each to their own.