Goldstein - To start or to not start, that is the question

[quinny88]

I regretted not starting him last year and I probably will this year but I'm standing firm.. For now  :-X

[LordSneeze]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

[quinny88]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

This is my concern. If I had Luey and he was averaging 100 I doubt I'm going to trade him unless it's late in the season and I have the luxury (and a spare 100k) to trade him to Goldy. You're pretty much ruling out Goldy all together if you dont start him unless you get lucky and he gets injured to drop his price a large chunk. We all fantasise about upgrading mid priced players to guns but it rarely works out which is why I usually avoid them and just start the guns.

Think I just talked myself into starting Goldy  :o

[Holz]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

This is my concern. If I had Luey and he was averaging 100 I doubt I'm going to trade him unless it's late in the season and I have the luxury (and a spare 100k) to trade him to Goldy. You're pretty much ruling out Goldy all together if you dont start him unless you get lucky and he gets injured to drop his price a large chunk. We all fantasise about upgrading mid priced players to guns but it rarely works out which is why I usually avoid them and just start the guns.

Think I just talked myself into starting Goldy  :o

On the bright side when burger averages 85-90 and Goldy goes 115-120 the upgrade move is easier.

[RaisyDaisy]

I'm not totally convinced on Burger

IIRC he only really posted up good numbers when he was the sole ruck. I expect Belly and Luey to share the ruck load and play forward.

If I start Luey, I think it would be as a forward (if he has DPP) with the hope that he could be good enough to cement F6 and provide ruck cover. The possibility of averaging enough to maintain F6 and provide cover is probably much higher than him being good enough to be R2 all season because I don't think I really want to be wasting my time on him as a stepping stone

In regards to Goldy, I think the fact that Ablett, Rocky, Jelwood etc all being priced cheaply allows us to spend the money on him instead. Whether it's Goldy at 700k and Jelwood at 500k, it's the same as Jelwood at 630k and Goldy at 570k more or less. The total outlay of these guys is going to be similar because of how cheap the gun mids will start so it makes it easy to justify spending up on Goldy

I dare say the backline is going to be a line that we can go cheap on too. Not sure I would be spending over 600k to start Heater or Hodge, because I know they can drop 20-25% in price and I can get them later, so again loading up with the Rolls Royce ruck line does have merit indeed

[quinny88]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

This is my concern. If I had Luey and he was averaging 100 I doubt I'm going to trade him unless it's late in the season and I have the luxury (and a spare 100k) to trade him to Goldy. You're pretty much ruling out Goldy all together if you dont start him unless you get lucky and he gets injured to drop his price a large chunk. We all fantasise about upgrading mid priced players to guns but it rarely works out which is why I usually avoid them and just start the guns.

Think I just talked myself into starting Goldy  :o

On the bright side when burger averages 85-90 and Goldy goes 115-120 the upgrade move is easier.

Still probably the last move you would do though.
Let's just say the stars align at round 7 and Goldy has dropped 100k and Berger has averaged 90, I would much rather be using trades to upgrade rookies to premiums at that time. Trading Berger to Goldy will really be a luxury trade unless Berger is stinking it up which if you think there's a risk of that then he's not worth starting in the first place.
I really think that you should only start mid priced players if you think they have a good chance to become keepers. Berger is a potential keeper if he rucks the season alone but even at his best will be 15-20ppg behind Goldy

[enzedder]

Goldy will be in my starting team.

[Dons]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

I agree with not disregarding it. 160+ i dont even consider removing, but a 221 i show the impact it had without it in there as it is a massive outlier.

The captain option can be covered by one G Ablett/Fyfe/Rocky/Pendles/Shaw, but Goldy is a good one to have there if someone else doesn't and you need to make up points. It would be interesting to do a variance analysis on his scores compared to a fit Ablett/Fyfe type.

An average of 113 would be around $600k, so this is likely to be the lowest that he will drop to barring an injury or multiple sub 100 games to start the year. It is likely to be a situation if you don't start him it will be very hard to bring him in. without it being a sideways. Luey is the only option, but he would need to average 100 and get to 500k at the same time as goldy drops to $600k to make it viable.

If you dont have him at the start, it will be hard to bring him in. Im liking this discussion :)

This is my concern. If I had Luey and he was averaging 100 I doubt I'm going to trade him unless it's late in the season and I have the luxury (and a spare 100k) to trade him to Goldy. You're pretty much ruling out Goldy all together if you dont start him unless you get lucky and he gets injured to drop his price a large chunk. We all fantasise about upgrading mid priced players to guns but it rarely works out which is why I usually avoid them and just start the guns.

Think I just talked myself into starting Goldy  :o

On the bright side when burger averages 85-90 and Goldy goes 115-120 the upgrade move is easier.

Still probably the last move you would do though.
Let's just say the stars align at round 7 and Goldy has dropped 100k and Berger has averaged 90, I would much rather be using trades to upgrade rookies to premiums at that time. Trading Berger to Goldy will really be a luxury trade unless Berger is stinking it up which if you think there's a risk of that then he's not worth starting in the first place.
I really think that you should only start mid priced players if you think they have a good chance to become keepers. Berger is a potential keeper if he rucks the season alone but even at his best will be 15-20ppg behind Goldy

What about Berger and Goldy then? Same idea as above, ie cost similar to a Jacobs/Martin/sandi type duo.

[quinny88]

Goldy Berger is an option too but again, only if you think Berger can be a keeper

[LordSneeze]

Lets have a look at Luey now.

In 2013 this is what the injury discounts were. Sorry i dont have 2014 or 2015 to work from. But it should give a reasonable idea of how the system works.

8 games or more: no discount
6-7 games: 10% discount if average was 60 or above; no discount if average was below 60.
4-5 games: 20% discount if average was 60 or above; no discount if average was below 60.
3 games: 30% discount if average was 60 or above; 20% discount if average was from 50-60; 10% discount if average was from 40-50; no discount if average was below 40.
2 games: 30% discount if average was 60 or above; 20% discount if average was from 50-60; 15% discount if average was from 40-50; no discount if average was below 40.
1 game: 30% discount if average was 60 or above; 20% discount if average was from 35-60; no discount if average was below 35.
0 games: 30% discount off last season average.

There are bigger discounts made for players still eligible for rising star and eligible for a discount. For example a player with 50 games who played only 1 last year will get 30%, but one that had only 5 but only 1 last year will get 50%.


Last year he played a total of 14 games, so no discount applied, just an undervalued average.
His average was 57.5 which equtes to a starting price around $310-320k
Going to a new team always makes comparisons to previous years hard, as you have no idea how the players will go. Historically Luey has show he can average between 95-100 if fit (That is a big if)
In 2011 he averaged a career high 102, which was done when averaging 16 possesions and 33 hitouts.
In 2012 he scored consecutive hundreds before succuming to injury
In 2013 he again ahd a fit year averaging a solid 97 with 9 scores over 100. His hitouts did drop down to 30 per game and possessions to 14 per game.
In 2014 he again succumbed to injury playing only 3 games prior all around the 80 point mark.

I believe it is safe to say that if he can stay injury free he should be able to pick up between 10-15 possessions a 30 hitouts a game on average. This should be good for a solid 85-90 point average. At this average his price will only rise to about $430k which is that annoying range where they aren't a keeper or able to be easily upgraded.

The other thing that worries me is the ability of Essendon to be able to destroy ruckmen's scores but running with 2 ruckmen. I believe this will be the case again this year.

At this stage i cannot see any reason to start with Luey, an 85-90 average at a starting price of $315k is that middle ground that wont gain enough cash, nor get enough points. To make it worthwhile you will need him to become a keeper at an average of 100, or have a period that he scores 100+ so you can upgrade him with limited difficulty.

The risk i believe outweighs the reward in this case.

[RaisyDaisy]

As I mentioned earlier I wouldn't be starting Luey unless he has FWD DPP

When he was averaging 95-100 as far as I remember he was the number 1 ruck with little support. Essendon will have Luey and Belly playing together, so I think 95+ is no chance for Luey, but if he could push 90 as F6 and provide cover he would be worth start for me (in the fwd line)

[quinny88]

As I mentioned earlier I wouldn't be starting Luey unless he has FWD DPP

When he was averaging 95-100 as far as I remember he was the number 1 ruck with little support. Essendon will have Luey and Belly playing together, so I think 95+ is no chance for Luey, but if he could push 90 as F6 and provide cover he would be worth start for me (in the fwd line)

Do you think TBC will get games? If I was Essendon I'd be going with Berger and Mckernan

[RaisyDaisy]

As I mentioned earlier I wouldn't be starting Luey unless he has FWD DPP

When he was averaging 95-100 as far as I remember he was the number 1 ruck with little support. Essendon will have Luey and Belly playing together, so I think 95+ is no chance for Luey, but if he could push 90 as F6 and provide cover he would be worth start for me (in the fwd line)

Do you think TBC will get games? If I was Essendon I'd be going with Berger and Mckernan

Hard to tell with Woosha now in charge, but I think most "experts" etc have Belly in the best 22 easily

[LordSneeze]

As I mentioned earlier I wouldn't be starting Luey unless he has FWD DPP

When he was averaging 95-100 as far as I remember he was the number 1 ruck with little support. Essendon will have Luey and Belly playing together, so I think 95+ is no chance for Luey, but if he could push 90 as F6 and provide cover he would be worth start for me (in the fwd line)

hes +300k, you'd at best be starting him F4 unless your going real light elsewhere. There should be more value in he range around and below that.

[GoLions]

As I mentioned earlier I wouldn't be starting Luey unless he has FWD DPP

When he was averaging 95-100 as far as I remember he was the number 1 ruck with little support. Essendon will have Luey and Belly playing together, so I think 95+ is no chance for Luey, but if he could push 90 as F6 and provide cover he would be worth start for me (in the fwd line)

hes +300k, you'd at best be starting him F4 unless your going real light elsewhere. There should be more value in he range around and below that.

Pretty sure he means F6 when team is effectively complete