Goldstein - To start or to not start, that is the question

[Gigantor]

So I'm seeing a lot of "I'll pick up Goldy cheaper after rd7" comments and am wondering why everyone is so sure Goldy is going to drop a lot?

Yes I know there is the old "Ruckman never back up a premo year" saying but SMartin did it 2014-15 and Cox went from 122 in 2011 to 111 in 2012, which is a drop but that was with NicNat also averaging 112. Goldy really doesn't have any competition for ruck points and I think we can safely say he is not a normal ruckman (128 average is proof enough :) )

Am I missing something in his draw? yes he plays Sandi in rd 4 but its at Etihad where he scored 116 against Freo this year at that ground.

I don't see why he couldn't maintain a 120 ave which means he would only drop 50-60k after 7 rds.

If he really drops off, say 110, is it work trading him in if Leuy is averaging 100?

For what its worth I'm currently looking at set and forget Goldy/SMartin next year, with the value picks in the mids I feel its worth spending the extra money in the rucks

[_wato]

He has Jacobs round 1, SMartin round 2, Gawn round 3, Sandi round 4, then will dominate the rest of the year.

The more I think about it, the more it seems smarter to get him in... But I just cannot justify his starting price and how cheap Leuenberger is, who I see as a real talent. All it takes is Leuey to average over 90 and you've alresdy won the decision to choose him over Goldy. That's the way I see it, as I indeed can see Leuey averaging 95+ as the number ONE ruckman at Essendon.

Then a cheap $100-200k upgrade to Goldy. Lose a trade but make up for it by having another mid keeper from the beginning and you increase your starting value of your team by what you offset getting Goldy for. Win win in my eyes.

[quinny88]

I don't think he will drop heaps but he does play Sandi early who he generally struggles against and at his price that was built on some monster scores like a 221 I'm happy to leave him out and hope he doesn't bust out those sort of numbers early in the season

[kilbluff1985]

will make the call based on structure if i can use the extra cash more affectively or not

[Big Mac]

Haven't looked into it too much but at the moment it looks something like Libba/Crouch/O'meara + Leuey vs Goldy + rookie

Leaning towards the first option, but that assumes TBC doesn't get a game

[RaisyDaisy]

will make the call based on structure if i can use the extra cash more affectively or not

[Holz]

You pay up to get the best of the best in the mids with Ablett Fyfe Pendles etc.

Goldy clearly the best of the best ruck.

Goldy Martin and I dont have to look at it all year except to see those nice 100+ scores every week.

Burger could be a great pick up, but my rookies will make me cash, i dont need burger.

[RaisyDaisy]

You pay up to get the best of the best in the mids with Ablett Fyfe Pendles etc.

Goldy clearly the best of the best ruck.

Goldy Martin and I dont have to look at it all year except to see those nice 100+ scores every week.

Burger could be a great pick up, but my rookies will make me cash, i dont need burger.

I reckon there has to be a chance that Burger gets DPP, and if so then starting him at F4/5 might be the way to go, with Goldy and Martin as set and forget

Would cost a fair bit up front, but wouldn't cost you a trade all year (except LTI)

[Holz]

You pay up to get the best of the best in the mids with Ablett Fyfe Pendles etc.

Goldy clearly the best of the best ruck.

Goldy Martin and I dont have to look at it all year except to see those nice 100+ scores every week.

Burger could be a great pick up, but my rookies will make me cash, i dont need burger.

I reckon there has to be a chance that Burger gets DPP, and if so then starting him at F4/5 might be the way to go, with Goldy and Martin as set and forget

Would cost a fair bit up front, but wouldn't cost you a trade all year (except LTI)

This is why you pick Goldy

22 21 21 games. he only missed 2 games from resting and with the bye at the end of the season I reckon he plays 22.

Jacobs doesn't miss either 22 22 21.

probably will go those two even though Martin shouldn't miss.

If burger is dpp forget about his R status and see if he is worth picking as a forward (which he might be)

[LordSneeze]

For me there are some worries on both the Luey and Goldy options. Im tempted to ignore both at this stage.

Lets start off with Goldy. His average last year was 128.3 which equates to a base price of $695k. So it is likely that you are looking at a price around 695-700k to start with a breakeven of around 130.
Obviously he is one of the best ruckmen in the comp, if not the best. There is one vital questions to ask firstly

Do you believe he will be a top 2 ruck come years end?
If yes, is $700k worth it?
If no, dont pick him and stop reading

So what was the reason for his increase in value. Some will say it was the score changing, others will just say he is a beast, but the truth in the matter is there is always a statistical reason.
If you look at his stats (Including finals) from 13-15 he has improved possesions from 12 to 14.5, Marks from 2 to 4, hitouts from 37 to 44 and tackles from 3 to 4. What im worried about here is his ability to hold a 44 hitout average next year as that is above what Sandilands have average over the last 2 years..
Additionally he scored over 130; 11 times last year; 6 times in 2014 and 5 times in 2013.
Over 100 scored 2015 = 21, 2014 = 16, 2013 = 16. This shows that last year he both increased his ceiling scores and reduced his amount of low score games.
If you exclude his 221 point game his average drops back to 122. I dont believe this is a sustainable score to reproduce next year.

Next lets look at his start to the years. Across the first 10 rounds his averages have been
2013 - 113
2014 - 88
2015 - 112

The biggest thing that stands out to me is that he has never backed up a good year, there is always a drop off
2011 - 113
2012 - 93
2013 - 113
2014 - 107
2015 - 128

So overall. Increases across all stats including a big hitout increase (Potentially unsustainable), Overinflated average due to the 221 point score, Never average over 113 in the first 10 rounds, Never backed up a good year has always had a drop off. Massive price to start.
Taking all that into account i think i might be avoiding him to start the year as i believe that the risk of not having him and using the cash elsewhere will offset the potential for him to backup with another 120 average year.

Ill do one on Luey later.

[Holz]

For me there are some worries on both the Luey and Goldy options. Im tempted to ignore both at this stage.

Lets start off with Goldy. His average last year was 128.3 which equates to a base price of $695k. So it is likely that you are looking at a price around 695-700k to start with a breakeven of around 130.
Obviously he is one of the best ruckmen in the comp, if not the best. There is one vital questions to ask firstly

Do you believe he will be a top 2 ruck come years end?
If yes, is $700k worth it?
If no, dont pick him and stop reading

So what was the reason for his increase in value. Some will say it was the score changing, others will just say he is a beast, but the truth in the matter is there is always a statistical reason.
If you look at his stats (Including finals) from 13-15 he has improved possesions from 12 to 14.5, Marks from 2 to 4, hitouts from 37 to 44 and tackles from 3 to 4. What im worried about here is his ability to hold a 44 hitout average next year as that is above what Sandilands have average over the last 2 years..
Additionally he scored over 130; 11 times last year; 6 times in 2014 and 5 times in 2013.
Over 100 scored 2015 = 21, 2014 = 16, 2013 = 16. This shows that last year he both increased his ceiling scores and reduced his amount of low score games.
If you exclude his 221 point game his average drops back to 122. I dont believe this is a sustainable score to reproduce next year.

Next lets look at his start to the years. Across the first 10 rounds his averages have been
2013 - 113
2014 - 88
2015 - 112

The biggest thing that stands out to me is that he has never backed up a good year, there is always a drop off
2011 - 113
2012 - 93
2013 - 113
2014 - 107
2015 - 128

So overall. Increases across all stats including a big hitout increase (Potentially unsustainable), Overinflated average due to the 221 point score, Never average over 113 in the first 10 rounds, Never backed up a good year has always had a drop off. Massive price to start.
Taking all that into account i think i might be avoiding him to start the year as i believe that the risk of not having him and using the cash elsewhere will offset the potential for him to backup with another 120 average year.

Ill do one on Luey later.

good analysis.

however 2012 he was playing with Hmac

2014 he was injured. to start the year so that explains the 88 start.

take out those factors which dont exist and he has gone 113+ for 5 straight years.

[Gigantor]

Great write up Sneeze, some really good stats that are hard to ignore! Also great counter argument Holz!

It's only December and I'm already stressing about who to pick  :P

[LordSneeze]

For me there are some worries on both the Luey and Goldy options. Im tempted to ignore both at this stage.

Lets start off with Goldy. His average last year was 128.3 which equates to a base price of $695k. So it is likely that you are looking at a price around 695-700k to start with a breakeven of around 130.
Obviously he is one of the best ruckmen in the comp, if not the best. There is one vital questions to ask firstly

Do you believe he will be a top 2 ruck come years end?
If yes, is $700k worth it?
If no, dont pick him and stop reading

So what was the reason for his increase in value. Some will say it was the score changing, others will just say he is a beast, but the truth in the matter is there is always a statistical reason.
If you look at his stats (Including finals) from 13-15 he has improved possesions from 12 to 14.5, Marks from 2 to 4, hitouts from 37 to 44 and tackles from 3 to 4. What im worried about here is his ability to hold a 44 hitout average next year as that is above what Sandilands have average over the last 2 years..
Additionally he scored over 130; 11 times last year; 6 times in 2014 and 5 times in 2013.
Over 100 scored 2015 = 21, 2014 = 16, 2013 = 16. This shows that last year he both increased his ceiling scores and reduced his amount of low score games.
If you exclude his 221 point game his average drops back to 122. I dont believe this is a sustainable score to reproduce next year.

Next lets look at his start to the years. Across the first 10 rounds his averages have been
2013 - 113
2014 - 88
2015 - 112

The biggest thing that stands out to me is that he has never backed up a good year, there is always a drop off
2011 - 113
2012 - 93
2013 - 113
2014 - 107
2015 - 128

So overall. Increases across all stats including a big hitout increase (Potentially unsustainable), Overinflated average due to the 221 point score, Never average over 113 in the first 10 rounds, Never backed up a good year has always had a drop off. Massive price to start.
Taking all that into account i think i might be avoiding him to start the year as i believe that the risk of not having him and using the cash elsewhere will offset the potential for him to backup with another 120 average year.

Ill do one on Luey later.

good analysis.

however 2012 he was playing with Hmac

2014 he was injured. to start the year so that explains the 88 start.

take out those factors which dont exist and he has gone 113+ for 5 straight years.

Okay, so if you take out the scores before the bye in 2014 he averaged 117 for the rest of the year. This included 3 scored of 160+. It is clear the injury affected his scores.
I dont agree with excluding Hmac from 2012 as it is impossible to estimate what he would have got without him there that year.

While i do believe he will go 115-120 across the year, i cannot see a reason to start him at a 130 point price, when historically he is much stronger after bye rounds most years.

[RaisyDaisy]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

[GM]

Handy numbers indeed, but the stats don't cover it all.

What value can you put on having a genuine Captain option like Goldy each week? And what value when your opponent has him and you don't?

I'm not a fan of "removing" his 200+ score or even 160+ scores. He got them, which means he is capable of getting them again. Removing injury/sub games is fine, but not high scoring games

In years gone by people were happy to put 650k+ for Rocky, Pendles etc.

At 700k he is worth it. Let's say he dropped to 620k. Everyone jumps on because he is still the best, but everyone has just used a trade while I haven't. I'll value a trade and the points he gets me from the get go over another ruck to be worth more than the extra 100k or whatever it costs to start him

It goes both ways.

Well said RD.