Holz's Heroes

[GoLions]

Holz ... not going with your old GnR's strategy?

Is Bird + Crouch + Acres/Mills > JKP + 2 Rooks by enough to warrant the risks ?

Also from a non-footballing PoV and looking at Simpson purely as a number ... I don't think he's worth starting. 

If you were told at the beginning of 2015 the he was not going to be top6-D for average and not going to be top6-D for overall ... would you have picked him?

I think this year is no different. He's not going to be like the Hoff at the other end who "should" be top6 overall at least. There is no upside to Carlton's draw.

I would rather pick him up mid-season after a blip and a price drop to bank an overs average that gets him back to 90-95.  As opposed to missing a T.McD early season type scorer who comes in to give you unders ;(

Back Z.Will ... I am :P

And if he starts well then drops off in second half of the year? Better to start him and bank the 90-95 avg

Obviously ... but that's now what i said at all.

If he's cruising at around 90ppg around the bye and pulls a couple stinkers ... which is not unusual ... then pick him up.  If you're confident he'll finish the year at 90-95 ... then his remaining scores will above average.

If defenders are rubbish this year then he's a safe upgrade. If there are defenders who have broken out in a big way ... maybe 92 isn't good enough for Top6 again.

He doesn't have to be top 6. Most people are backing him to average 90-95 like he has for the last hundred years. Yes he might start slow, or have a mid season blip, but he could also kill it early on. If he averages 92 and is the 20th best defender, I'll take it. Because odds are that the 5th best is averaging around 95, so doesn't really matter. Simpson is safe, and you can't say that about many defenders this year.

[Marstar]

Holz ... not going with your old GnR's strategy?

Is Bird + Crouch + Acres/Mills > JKP + 2 Rooks by enough to warrant the risks ?

Also from a non-footballing PoV and looking at Simpson purely as a number ... I don't think he's worth starting. 

If you were told at the beginning of 2015 the he was not going to be top6-D for average and not going to be top6-D for overall ... would you have picked him?

I think this year is no different. He's not going to be like the Hoff at the other end who "should" be top6 overall at least. There is no upside to Carlton's draw.

I would rather pick him up mid-season after a blip and a price drop to bank an overs average that gets him back to 90-95.  As opposed to missing a T.McD early season type scorer who comes in to give you unders ;(

Back Z.Will ... I am :P

And if he starts well then drops off in second half of the year? Better to start him and bank the 90-95 avg

Obviously ... but that's now what i said at all.

If he's cruising at around 90ppg around the bye and pulls a couple stinkers ... which is not unusual ... then pick him up.  If you're confident he'll finish the year at 90-95 ... then his remaining scores will above average.

If defenders are rubbish this year then he's a safe upgrade. If there are defenders who have broken out in a big way ... maybe 92 isn't good enough for Top6 again.

He doesn't have to be top 6. Most people are backing him to average 90-95 like he has for the last hundred years. Yes he might start slow, or have a mid season blip, but he could also kill it early on. If he averages 92 and is the 20th best defender, I'll take it. Because odds are that the 5th best is averaging around 95, so doesn't really matter. Simpson is safe, and you can't say that about many defenders this year.

Now we're on the same page :D

I have very little player knowledge compared to you guys and my opinion is not based on Simpson's ability ... I'm more of a strategist.

I can't tell you who to buy instead of Simpson. If your gut says Z.Williams and you can back it with something like "end of season form", "preseason track numbers, size increase, weight-loss, leadership promotion etc etc etc", "NAB player position and role insights" etc etc etc then that's what needs to be weighed against your opinion of Simpsons 2016 output.

Personally, I can't subscribe to the mentality that "I'm happy to not have the best team" as long as i can "safely" have a pretty good team. I don't think taking Simpson as the "safe" choice is showing any ambition.

I don't think we're the sort of people here that are looking to safely make it into the top 1000, and I'd bet Holz has no interest in prioritizing "safe" SC play.  It's a matter of whether he considers Simpson "smart" play.

It's one thing to say I'm aiming for the 50k and I'm happy to come 1000th and another to say I'm aiming not to be outside the top thousand and taking home the 50k is a bonus.

If you need to play it safer later in the season, when it's "smart" to protect a ladder position, jump on Simpson for that reliable 90-95 finish.

For me there was nothing worse than getting to the bye last year and stressing over whether I would be chashing McDonald and Houli's pre-bye scores .... and i did.

T.Mc -
96 average
101 pre-bye
90 post-bye

Houli -
96 average
104 pre-bye
89 post-bye

Simpson -
93 average
95 pre-bye
90 post-bye

For me Simpson isn't Pendles anymore. He's not that Elite Defender people shoe into the top4 for average and overall.  I think he's become that Priddis type player you might never start ... but always look at mid season to bank the reliable 110ppg when the guns are misfiring and the breakouts have broken down.

Hope this helps.

[Bully]

Very similar team to my own but I really don't like the Bird pick, could be anything this year with an upside of 85. There's even been some hints that he may be used as a tagger when Crowley is off the leash. Big trap to use his one good year with Sydney to justify his inclusion.

[_wato]

Marstar, if you're saying Simpson is the Priddis of the defence, than I'll be the first to jump on. Defence has and always will be the toughest line to get consistent scoring from. One week you get 600, the next you struggle to get 450. If I was to bank a 90 each week with no fuss than I would not complain at all. I see Simmo going 90-95 again. Carlton ain't gonna be bad this year, please do not get caught up in their NAB showings. Half of their best squad is out including their two best players Murphy and Cripps. Draw is favourable indeed. Saints, Lions, Bombers, Swans twice.

[Holz]

liked what I saw from the forward rookie. Have got rid of pretty much all my mid pricers bar Wells Crouch Libba who are injured premos which is my usual strat.

Gund Rookies Injure Premos

Rance Bartel Brichall Weitering Brown Hartley (Collins, Mcdonald-Tippa)
Ablett Rocky Fyfe Pendles Sloane Libba Crouch Mills (Parish Gresham Gore)
Goldy NN (Grimley)
Martin Barlow Wells B.Kennedy Milera Kerridge (Menadue, Kommer)

[Gigantor]

If Grimley is named rd1 would you look to pick Petracca at M11 so you have a loophole option for the first few rounds?

[Capper]

Holz what is your back up plan if Liba, Wells and BCrouch dont play R1?

[Holz]

If Grimley is named rd1 would you look to pick Petracca at M11 so you have a loophole option for the first few rounds?

either that or drop kommer to grimley then pick up a cheap F/R

serisouly looking at recca though as Mills Parish lopphole would be nice. issue is he comes back round 4 and loophole gone also you lose cash generation. Depends if a m11 shows himself to be decent. not sure on gore just placeholder.

[Holz]

Holz what is your back up plan if Liba, Wells and BCrouch dont play R1?

well libba will play.

If wells doesn then i just downgrade sloane and bring in a premo. Same for crouch. Sloane is my cash if i ever need it thats why i have parish on the bench.

[Capper]

and if Crouch and Wells dont play? Ando?

[Holz]

and if Crouch and Wells dont play? Ando?

if crouch wells dont play its easy.

Crouch to 120k ruck via DPP pocket the 180k then Im not too far away from Buddy with Wells just find a spare 50k somewhere.

[Capper]

Is Parish @ $200k too expensive to have on your bench?

Or if Crouch and wells dont play down grade Crouch to a rookie, play Parish and upgrade Wells?

[Holz]

Is Parish @ $200k too expensive to have on your bench?

Or if Crouch and wells dont play down grade Crouch to a rookie, play Parish and upgrade Wells?

i just dont like any 3 cheaper mid rookies. Parish will make cash and provide good cover. As i said sloane can be dowgnraded if need be and a forward rookie up to a premo.

Wells will play baring any new injury so not planning on that at all. Can find cash if i need it just dont think I will.

If crouch is out then Crouch to Rookie pocket 180k and probably go back rookie to Harwood. 

[Holz]

have absolutely pumped the midfield.

Rance Bartel Birchall Weitering Brown Hartley (Kollins, Adams)
Fyfe Dangerfield Ablett Pendles Rocky Libba Crouch Mills (Gresham Menadue Dunkley)
Goldy NN (Loersch)
Martin Barlow Wells Bennedy Cockatoo Kerridge (Mcdonald-Tippa Kommer)

40k in the Bank.

[Ringo]

Nice structure Holz. Gee a few of us are getting into the 5 super premo midfield and with good reason. Like it as well because if any of them go down with LTI will be able to trade down as I see these 5 being possibly the Top 5 and have some cash left.

Cockatoo is the only one I have doubts on but just personal as he burnt and teased me last year.