2016 ladder/season predictions

[Big Mac]

Oh we're clearly failure of the season

Yeh no doubt, think I had you 3rd

[Bill Manspeaker]

11. St Kilda

probably have the Saints a little high but flower it why not :P

I was pretty much spot on ;D

...one above the Saints I had the Dogs though...and one below I had GWS...and one spot below them I had Adelaide...and I had Port 3rd...Fremantle 7th (but that's probably fair enough)...Carlton spoon...Freeman rising star...Ablett/Fyfe brownlow...

Kennedy coleman looks alright. Hawks vs Cats grand final which is a chance

[Holz]

Did anyone put the Giants in the Top 8 at the beginning of the year?  :'(

I had them 8th! But the rest of my ladder is terrible. Had Crows, Swans and Bulldogs missing the 8 (Only just, but still out of the 8) and they are making me look silly now (Port, Freo and Tigers in their place).

Did anyone not put them in the 8?

they were 2 wins outside last year with a young team and continually getting gifts in the draft.

I had them just outside the 4 but pushing for it and given they are on equal wins as the 7th place team it seems pretty right.

[AaronKirk]

I had them 9th. Favourable draw and improvement of their young players but I thought that Port would get back into the 8 and Freo would still be up there.

My top 8 at the beginning of the year didn't have Sydney! I may have got that a little bit wrong.

My pre season ladder was as below
1. Geelong
2. Hawthorn
3. West Coast
4. Nth Melbourne
5. Port Adelaide
6. Fremantle
7. Adelaide
8. Bulldogs
- - - -
9. GWS
10. Collingwood
11. Sydney
12. Richmond
13. Gold Coast
14. Melbourne
15. St Kilda
16. Brisbane
17. Essendon
18. Carlton

[RaisyDaisy]

Still so much to play out here

Hawks and GWS have the top 2 locked up IMO, and I reckon Adelaide is a strong chance to get that 3rd spot

I expect Geelong and Syd to finish 4th and 5th, followed by WBD, WCE and North

[Holz]

Still so much to play out here

Hawks and GWS have the top 2 locked up IMO, and I reckon Adelaide is a strong chance to get that 3rd spot

I expect Geelong and Syd to finish 4th and 5th, followed by WBD, WCE and North

GWS have an easy draw but mummy questionable and if he misses who knows what they do.

Tigers and Eagles could cause an upset despite being at home and north in melbourne is a tough gig.

[Jay]

Still so much to play out here

Hawks and GWS have the top 2 locked up IMO, and I reckon Adelaide is a strong chance to get that 3rd spot

I expect Geelong and Syd to finish 4th and 5th, followed by WBD, WCE and North

They certainly do not imo. I have them winning every game apart from 1 for the rest of the year, and finishing 5th..

[SydneyRox]

Plenty to play out yet, but here is my final 8

Hawks 18 Wins
Cats 17 Wins
GWS 17 Wins
Crows 17 Wins
Swans 17 Wins
Dogs 16 Wins
Eagles 14 Wins
Saints 12 Wins



The main assumptions here are

Saints beat North this week
Dogs over North next week ?? Not sure on this one
Hawks lose to Eagles at domain Rnd 22

Which means % will decide 2nd to 5th - Both Geelong and Adelaide play Bombers, fair chance to up some % there and get over Swans and GWS

[RaisyDaisy]

Still so much to play out here

Hawks and GWS have the top 2 locked up IMO, and I reckon Adelaide is a strong chance to get that 3rd spot

I expect Geelong and Syd to finish 4th and 5th, followed by WBD, WCE and North

They certainly do not imo. I have them winning every game apart from 1 for the rest of the year, and finishing 5th..

Which game have you got GWS losing? North? That's 50/50, where as your Crows could slip up to Port in the derby or even WCE (Not likely but possible)

Let me rephrase what I said than

Hawks finish on top, with GWS and Adelaide finishing 2nd and 3rd with % the deciding factor

[Jay]

Still so much to play out here

Hawks and GWS have the top 2 locked up IMO, and I reckon Adelaide is a strong chance to get that 3rd spot

I expect Geelong and Syd to finish 4th and 5th, followed by WBD, WCE and North

They certainly do not imo. I have them winning every game apart from 1 for the rest of the year, and finishing 5th..

Which game have you got GWS losing? North? That's 50/50, where as your Crows could slip up to Port in the derby or even WCE (Not likely but possible)

Let me rephrase what I said than

Hawks finish on top, with GWS and Adelaide finishing 2nd and 3rd with % the deciding factor

Yeah I had them just going down to North. I have Geelong, Adelaide and Sydney tied for 2nd. Percentage is going to play a huge part in shaping the top four!

[Mat0369]

It's going to come down to a couple of games the way I see it. Sydney play a couple of teams they shouldn't drop games against but might, if GWS lose to North they probably finish 4th or 5th instead of 2nd pending the Swans results.

North vs Dogs next week is the other one that could shape the bottom half of the 8 with all the Dogs injuries.

[Mat0369]

Actually, looking at the run home it will be interesting to see the result of Geelong vs Melbourne as well. The Dees ended up spanking the Cats in Geelong last year. Max Gawn was a clear best on ground and they did it without Hogan. If the Cats drop that they could be out of the 4 on percentage, if they win they finish either 2nd or 3rd with the 2nd highest percentage in the league after GWS.

I also had a look to see where we finish the year considering we currently have the number 5 pick. Our run to end the season is as follows

St Kilda @ MCG
Brisbane @ Gabba
Melbourne @ MCG
Essendon @ MCG

I think we win at least two of those which sees us jump Richmond. If we win 3 and one of those is Melbourne, we also jump the Dees to 12th, if we beat the Saints and lose to the Dees we still finish 13th. If we win all 4 we could finish as high as 11th which will move our draft position from currently 4th to pick 8 in the draft.

[RaisyDaisy]

Yeah Melbourne is not beating Geelong :P

[Mat0369]

Yeah Melbourne is not beating Geelong :P

They said the same thing last year and Geelong has dropped a few games that were perceived as locks already. Carlton, Collingwood and Saints pop into my head right away.

[Jay]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-07-31/the-run-home-four-teams-nine-percentage-points
Interesting article, but I can't see how Adelaide can improve their percentage by more than Geelong from here on out.

To me, it's looking like:
1. Hawthorn
2. GWS
3. Geelong
4. Sydney
5. Adelaide
6. Bulldogs
7. Eagles
8. Norf

With spots 2-5 being decided on percentage :o And Norf two games ahead of Port for 8th.