The Brownlow

[jvalles69]

$990 per $1 investment?

When you multiply the odds out it will pay 990:1

I left Zerret out of it just coz of no previous voting history, I have him well in front, but there's also a chance guys like Kelly, Goddard and Zaha take votes off him..not likely though so I will prob add him to my multi.

I'll prob leave out Hawks as I have Mitchell and Lewis both on 18.  Mitchell has been quiet since the first 5 rounds, but does poll well.

North is definitely the toughest, Goldstein in front of Wells by a few, but he polled so badly last year and this year he hasn't been as good, however he does stand out more than anyone else when he's on.

AK you loading up on Priddis now?  His odds should come in further after the derby, can't see anyone other than Priddis or JKK if he kicks a bag take the votes.

Good write up too.

[RaisyDaisy]

Awesome write up AK

Id be keen to get onto a few multi's like that, but don't have an online betting account. I assume I can do that at the tab

Closer to the count ill start placing all my bets

[Mat0369]

The more I think about it, the more I realise why rucks don't poll as well. Most of the time a great ruck has a huge hit out to advantage rate, however is that what the ump is looking for on the field in stoppage situations? Not exactly so these tend to go unnoticed. I think a ruck would have to be a huge possession winner or hit the scoreboard to get votes, and even then they aren't looking at rucks that spread from stoppages for a mark and quick handoff to a runner. I would be hesitant to pick a ruck for most votes based on this.

I actually went back and had a look at the voting trend for rucks based on possessions/goals/hitouts to votes for last season.

In the two games Max Gawn picked up votes he had over 17 possessions. He actually had a better statistical game against Essendon and a good one against Freo as well for 0 votes.

Todd Goldstein hit the 17 possession threshold in most games he polled votes, in the ones he didn't he either kicked multiple goals or he had 80 hitouts which is the record.

Stef Martin had over 19 touches in all the games he polled votes.

Matty Kreuzer had 17 and 3 goals in the game he polled 3 against the Dees.

Sandi is the interesting one. He had 11 touches, 33 hitouts and no goals for 2 votes, 10 touches, 70 hitouts and no goals for 1 vote, 17/50/0 for 2, 21/43/0 for 3, 17/38/2 for 3 and 14/43/2 for 3. He had a game with 69 hitouts where he polled 0 votes.

Looking at Gawn and Goldy this year and using 17 touches and up or multiple goals when they were under that threshold I have the following games that they will poll votes in.

Goldy

Round 3 vs Melbourne - 19/38/5
Round 4 vs Freo - 17/45/0
Round 5 vs GC - 18/24/2
Round 7 vs St Kilda - 17/35/0
Round 8 vs Essendon - 22/35/0
Round 9 vs Carlton - 19/45/3

I think 2 of those games might be questionable for votes as well as it just hits the threshold of 17 disposals and there are no goals.

He might also get votes vs WC where he had 65 hit outs and 1 goal but only gathered 11 disposals. Based on the Sandi game where he had 69 hitouts though I think it might be questionable or 1 vote at best.

Gawn

Round 3 vs North - 18/63/2
Round 5 vs Richmond - 18/47/2
Round 7 vs GC - 17/46/2
Round 10 vs Port - 18/48/2
Round 12 vs Collingwood - 27/31/3
Round 16 vs Freo - 17/43/0
Round 17 vs Saints - 11/36/2
Round 18 vs West Coast - 17/41/0

The unfortunate thing is the game against North he probably gets 3 if Goldstein doesn't kick 5. The Richmond, Port, GC and Collingwood games all look like votes. The others he might get 1 at best.

It would be interesting if I could actually trace back some of those games where the rucks get 3 or didn't get any to see who was umpiring those games. You might find that guys tend to not give votes to rucks or the other way around.

[jvalles69]

Impressive stats Mat, nice bit of info to add to the database when allocating BL votes.  Cheers!

[AaronKirk]

$990 per $1 investment?

When you multiply the odds out it will pay 990:1

I left Zerret out of it just coz of no previous voting history, I have him well in front, but there's also a chance guys like Kelly, Goddard and Zaha take votes off him..not likely though so I will prob add him to my multi.

I'll prob leave out Hawks as I have Mitchell and Lewis both on 18.  Mitchell has been quiet since the first 5 rounds, but does poll well.

North is definitely the toughest, Goldstein in front of Wells by a few, but he polled so badly last year and this year he hasn't been as good, however he does stand out more than anyone else when he's on.

AK you loading up on Priddis now?  His odds should come in further after the derby, can't see anyone other than Priddis or JKK if he kicks a bag take the votes.

Good write up too.

$2 for Priddis is a gift. Load up.

[AaronKirk]

These are the votes that i gave in the games Mat mentioned for the rucks.

Goldy

Round 3 vs Melbourne - 19/38/5 3 votes
Round 4 vs Freo - 17/45/0 0 votes
Round 5 vs GC - 18/24/2 3 votes
Round 7 vs St Kilda - 17/35/0 0 votes
Round 8 vs Essendon - 22/35/0 1 vote
Round 9 vs Carlton - 19/45/3 3 votes

I also gave him 2 votes last weekend Round 19

Gawn

Round 3 vs North - 18/63/2 2 votes
Round 5 vs Richmond - 18/47/2 2 votes
Round 7 vs GC - 17/46/2 3 votes
Round 10 vs Port - 18/48/2 3 votes
Round 12 vs Collingwood - 27/31/3 3 votes
Round 16 vs Freo - 17/43/0 0 votes
Round 17 vs Saints - 11/36/2 0 votes
Round 18 vs West Coast - 17/41/0 2 votes

Also gave Gawn 3 votes v Collingwood in round 4

[Mat0369]

Stef tends to be the odd ruck out when looking at it in terms of possessions because he would get a ton of the ball every week and isn't your traditional ruck. When I went and had a look at the guys who dominate stoppages 17 seemed to be the borderline number.

I just had a quick look at Nic Nat and these are his numbers from the games he got votes in.

Round 15 vs Adelaide - 19/39/0 for 1 vote
Round 17 vs Sydney - 12/41/1 for 3 votes
Round 23 vs Saints - 16/30/3 for 3 votes

The Cats game is the only one he seemed to hit the statistical markers but didn't post votes where he had 17/36/3

Mummy is the only other ruck with numbers that seem odd in comparison to the others. He polled in the first 2 games with low possession numbers, no goals and his hit out numbers weren't massive compared to some new numbers we are seeing.

[Mat0369]

These are the votes that i gave in the games Mat mentioned for the rucks.

Goldy

Round 3 vs Melbourne - 19/38/5 3 votes
Round 4 vs Freo - 17/45/0 0 votes
Round 5 vs GC - 18/24/2 3 votes
Round 7 vs St Kilda - 17/35/0 0 votes
Round 8 vs Essendon - 22/35/0 1 vote
Round 9 vs Carlton - 19/45/3 3 votes

I also gave him 2 votes last weekend Round 19

Gawn

Round 3 vs North - 18/63/2 2 votes
Round 5 vs Richmond - 18/47/2 2 votes
Round 7 vs GC - 17/46/2 3 votes
Round 10 vs Port - 18/48/2 3 votes
Round 12 vs Collingwood - 27/31/3 3 votes
Round 16 vs Freo - 17/43/0 0 votes
Round 17 vs Saints - 11/36/2 0 votes
Round 18 vs West Coast - 17/41/0 2 votes

Also gave Gawn 3 votes v Collingwood in round 4

Is that the game Sidebottom dominated early or was that Queens Bday?

Looking at the numbers I don't think he will poll 3, maybe 1 at best. He had 15/37/1 in that game. I think Viney and Watts poll votes but it will be interesting to see the order.

[jvalles69]

Also have to take into account who won the game.

[Mat0369]

The Eagles smashed the Cats in that game where Nic Nat didn't poll any which is why it was odd.

[Big Mac]

Appreciate the analysis mat, already figured it would be too risky to have Gawn in a team multi and that about sums it up

[jvalles69]

Appreciate the analysis mat, already figured it would be too risky to have Gawn in a team multi and that about sums it up

Can't see where the rest of the votes go except Gawn though, Viney would be next, but he hasn't been consistent enough.  If Gawn stays outside of $2 at least I'll still include him in multi's, but will avoid North for sure.

[AaronKirk]

These are the votes that i gave in the games Mat mentioned for the rucks.

Goldy

Round 3 vs Melbourne - 19/38/5 3 votes
Round 4 vs Freo - 17/45/0 0 votes
Round 5 vs GC - 18/24/2 3 votes
Round 7 vs St Kilda - 17/35/0 0 votes
Round 8 vs Essendon - 22/35/0 1 vote
Round 9 vs Carlton - 19/45/3 3 votes

I also gave him 2 votes last weekend Round 19

Gawn

Round 3 vs North - 18/63/2 2 votes
Round 5 vs Richmond - 18/47/2 2 votes
Round 7 vs GC - 17/46/2 3 votes
Round 10 vs Port - 18/48/2 3 votes
Round 12 vs Collingwood - 27/31/3 3 votes
Round 16 vs Freo - 17/43/0 0 votes
Round 17 vs Saints - 11/36/2 0 votes
Round 18 vs West Coast - 17/41/0 2 votes

Also gave Gawn 3 votes v Collingwood in round 4

Is that the game Sidebottom dominated early or was that Queens Bday?

Looking at the numbers I don't think he will poll 3, maybe 1 at best. He had 15/37/1 in that game. I think Viney and Watts poll votes but it will be interesting to see the order.

In both games v the pies I reckon he was miles in front BOG in both.

[jvalles69]

Crownbet has Quinellas up, Danger/Sloane paying $5.

Sportsbet has most team votes up. With Crows good run home $6 seems awesome.  Currently have Crows on 82, Giants on 81, Cats on 72, Swans on 71, Hawks on 70.  I'm going to throw some $$ on Crows at those odds.

[AaronKirk]

I have Sydney on top in most team votes on 91 and 11 clear of 2nd placed GWS so I think the market has it right.