SuperCoach Finals

[Jay]

Time to take out your bargain Cats fellas

And enter your bargain Crows 8)

[fanTCfool]

Time to take out your bargain Cats fellas

And enter your bargain Crows 8)

Knight, Lyons, Atkins & a Cheap Sloane.... Mhmmm....

[Jay]

Time to take out your bargain Cats fellas

And enter your bargain Crows 8)

Knight, Lyons, Atkins & a Cheap Sloane.... Mhmmm....

Matt Crouch at 280k is a bargain 8)

[fanTCfool]

Time to take out your bargain Cats fellas

And enter your bargain Crows 8)

Knight, Lyons, Atkins & a Cheap Sloane.... Mhmmm....

Matt Crouch at 280k is a bargain 8)

Hard part is cramming them all in

[Jay]

Time to take out your bargain Cats fellas

And enter your bargain Crows 8)

Knight, Lyons, Atkins & a Cheap Sloane.... Mhmmm....

Matt Crouch at 280k is a bargain 8)

Hard part is cramming them all in

Yeah it's a tough salary cap.. Especially because I can't see myself not picking Goldy  :-X

[LordSneeze]

Just as a fun thing to see what it showed me I did a small analysis on players.
I only did the WB midfield choices as a test

Taken into account
Cost/Price
Potential score - This is what I think the player is most likely to score on average. It allows me to takeout outliers and give a more realistic 1 game average.
Variability - A number based on how much variance their scores show on average. 1 point of variance for each 10 point variance on their average. It goes with the assumption that there is a 50% chance that the player will go below or above the potential score.
Cost per point - Cost divided by potential score
Top/Bottom Cost PP Diff - Cost per point difference between top and bottom ranges. Useful when comparing players of the same variance level.
Overall Cost Per Point value - CPP +T/B CPP (Useful with Variance level)

Code Select Expand

Player       Price Potential score   Variance Cost Per Point    Variance Cost PP Diff Overall Cost Per Point Value
Wallis       418400 105              3             3984.76           2479.41                6464.17
Bontempelli   423700 100              2             4237.00           1765.42                6002.42
Boyd       450000 100              2             4500.00           1875.00                6375.00
Macrae        433500 110              1             3940.91           722.50                4663.41
Stevens       372400 90              3             4137.78           3103.33                7241.11
Biggs         295800 85              1              3480.00   830.32                4310.32
Jong       280600 70              2              4008.57   2494.22                6502.79

Obviously this is down to the potential score and variances as the main criteria, things like Sub risk, Injury, opposistion should be taken into account in a more advanced version. If these are wrong then the figures will be wrong.
IMO it is best to compare players of the same variance level and then depdning on your risk nature your able to take players that better suit your strategy. For example Stability in Def and Risk in Mids.

The next thing to add would be sub potential. Something that I see as being a massive risk in picking a potential player.
Someone like a Matt Crouch who has a average of 94 unsubbed and a variance of 1, but he has been sub 5 times in 14 games. This indicates he is possibly a 30% chance at being a sub. Something like this would change M Crouch from being better on paper than Biggs to being a worse pick.

Would love some feedback and thoughts?

[ubeaut]

How bout this team?

McINTOSH,LEVER,FRAWLEY

KENNEDY,SLOANE,BARLOW,HEENEY

SANDILANDS

WALKER,GOODES,LAMBERT

Loaded up on mids and ruck plus Tex and Goodesey. Hopefully others can score OK.

[fanTCfool]

Just as a fun thing to see what it showed me I did a small analysis on players.
I only did the WB midfield choices as a test

Taken into account
Cost/Price
Potential score - This is what I think the player is most likely to score on average. It allows me to takeout outliers and give a more realistic 1 game average.
Variability - A number based on how much variance their scores show on average. 1 point of variance for each 10 point variance on their average. It goes with the assumption that there is a 50% chance that the player will go below or above the potential score.
Cost per point - Cost divided by potential score
Top/Bottom Cost PP Diff - Cost per point difference between top and bottom ranges. Useful when comparing players of the same variance level.
Overall Cost Per Point value - CPP +T/B CPP (Useful with Variance level)

Code Select Expand

Player         Price   Potential score     Variance   Cost Per Point      Variance Cost PP Diff   Overall Cost Per Point Value
Wallis         418400   105                3               3984.76             2479.41                  6464.17
Bontempelli   423700   100                2               4237.00             1765.42                  6002.42
Boyd         450000   100                2               4500.00             1875.00                  6375.00
Macrae        433500   110                1               3940.91             722.50                  4663.41
Stevens         372400   90                3               4137.78             3103.33                  7241.11
Biggs         295800   85                1              3480.00        830.32                  4310.32
Jong         280600   70                2              4008.57        2494.22                  6502.79

Obviously this is down to the potential score and variances as the main criteria, things like Sub risk, Injury, opposistion should be taken into account in a more advanced version. If these are wrong then the figures will be wrong.
IMO it is best to compare players of the same variance level and then depdning on your risk nature your able to take players that better suit your strategy. For example Stability in Def and Risk in Mids.

The next thing to add would be sub potential. Something that I see as being a massive risk in picking a potential player.
Someone like a Matt Crouch who has a average of 94 unsubbed and a variance of 1, but he has been sub 5 times in 14 games. This indicates he is possibly a 30% chance at being a sub. Something like this would change M Crouch from being better on paper than Biggs to being a worse pick.

Would love some feedback and thoughts?

Great write up! I can see no such errors with the 'formula' if you will.
Will definitely be taking it into account as I continue to fiddle with my team as we approach the finals.
I take it that you have locked in Biggs? (and have convinced me to do the same)

[LordSneeze]

Great write up! I can see no such errors with the 'formula' if you will.
Will definitely be taking it into account as I continue to fiddle with my team as we approach the finals.
I take it that you have locked in Biggs? (and have convinced me to do the same)

Maybe, i haven't decided yet as i haven't looked at all the teams midfields.
An interesting example is that wallis and biggs at $713k for potential 190 points variance of 4 is the exact same potential points than going Jong and Macrae at $713k for 180 points varaince of 3. Its just that you take more risk in option 1.
With that in mind though id prefer to pair Biggs with a Sloane for the same price.

Will be interesting to see my team once it is done.

[plumdog millionaire]

Feels like every Bulldogs player is a viable option in this game

[LordSneeze]

So the team has started to take shape.

Defence
Johnson - Should be a lock for all teams at his price. Should comfortably go 90
Henderson/Vlaustin/Smith - Smith is the obvious due to his propensity to go huge, but with his injury riddled season I am a little wary of picking him. Henderson has been solid, but struggled when Smith out, Vlaustin has been very consistent since the byes with 7/11 over 80
Thompson - Ben solid all year and at his price I couldn't look past. There are a fewe other options around this price, but I think this provides my team with better structure.

Mids
Kennedy - Gun and with Jack going down will be relied on even more. Could get tagged, but I expect hanners to get that over him. C or VC option
Crouch - Cemented his spot in my side last week. There were a lot of passengers and he wasn't one of them. Still a little worried about the sub vest, but he should avoid it IMO
Hutchings - Back to good form and pulled out another good score on the weekend. Should get atleast 80 and at his price id be happy with that
Heeney - Again Jack going down opens up some mid time and he should benefit a little from that. Worried about his struggles against Freo last time they met.

Ruck
Nic Nat - WC have been resting him the last 3 weeks with only 75-80 mins game time. This will either be because of an injury or they are holding him back for the finals. Im expecting the later. C or VC option

Fwds
Gunston - Has been in great for he last 5-6 weeks, but has struggled travelling to perth this year. Would prefer to find the 17k to upgrade to Bont. This can really only be done through M1/D2 or a combination of.
McGovern - There are no options to me under 350k that standout. McGovern is injury plagued, but looked good last week. Playing in defence you would expect he will see some of the ball this weekend.
Lambert - Only player under 300k I see having the potential to score over 70

[batt]

I treat SC Finals as a time to choose everyone I wouldn't pick if thought about it for more than 2 seconds.

It's a bit of fun.

MJ/ Duffman/ Hansen

Lewis/ Ellis/ Crouch/Heeney

NicNat

Lynch/Hunter/Lambert

[GCSkiwi]

MJ/BSmith/Frawley
JPK/Barlow/MCrouch/Heeney
Sandi
Titch/Lambert/Knight

Got 41k spare, pretty happy other than Knight and Frawley but I can't see anyone great I'd rather have in there that I can afford. Maybe Reid after a stellar game on the weekend? Or take a punt on a cheap Kayne Turner and then see what I could get for Frawley...

[fanTCfool]

MJ/BSmith/Frawley
JPK/Barlow/MCrouch/Heeney
Sandi
Titch/Lambert/Knight

Got 41k spare, pretty happy other than Knight and Frawley but I can't see anyone great I'd rather have in there that I can afford. Maybe Reid after a stellar game on the weekend? Or take a punt on a cheap Kayne Turner and then see what I could get for Frawley...

Can't see Turner playing this week, that was a nasty knock last weekend.
Frawley has been playing up forward in recent weeks, and has hit the scoreboard, but that was against average opposition, and I couldn't see him spending much time up there this week. Still could be worth holding though.
Also, if teams come out and Jarryd Lyons is not sub, lock him in over Knight!

[GCSkiwi]

Always depends on who gets named ;) If Turner gets up then he's 190k I think you'd have to consider him. If Creepy Crowley miraculously gets named then he'd be a lock too, not going to score well but at 115k saves you a chunk of money for a score of 50-60...

Salary cap sucks, you're always gonna have to take a punt on a couple of players who are cheap, probably not going to score that well but just maybe will kill it - Sam Reid 280k and got 148 on the weekend, probably not going to pull it out again but he's also a possibility.

Lyons bigger upside than Knight but much bigger downside... Knight 37-75 this year, bad outing against Cats but solid the weeks before, expect a bounce back. Lyons came on in Q2 and only managed 28 in just over half a game so just being the sub isn't what's killing him... 7/12 of Lyons games he's scored less than Knight's floor, only twice has he beaten Knight's ceiling. In short, no way in hell is Lyons a lock over Knight, vest or not.