WXV Finals Week 1: Christchurch, Pacific & New York Debut

[Purple 77]

IT BEGINS!

Home Team		Away Team	Head-to-Head	Venue
Dublin Destroyers	v	Mexico City Suns	3  v  2	Crooke Park
PNL Reindeers	v	Christchurch Saints	1  v  0	State de France
Pacific Islanders	v	Moscow Spetsnaz	1  v  3	Tuanaimato International Stadium, Samoa
Berlin Brewers	v	New York Revolution	3  v  1	Berlin Olympic Stadium

It feels like only yesterday that we saw these two titans go head to head... and that feeling is more or less justified! Dublin is fresh from finishing its perfect Home & Away season with a comprehensive victory over Mexico City (164 v 152) at Fireball Stadium, so you would think they could get it done again at Crooke Park! But this Suns outfit is a proud club with a proud history, and they would know that this game is completely different to last week. Both these teams have tasted premiership glory and know what it takes to get there again, and normally the first step on that path is to earn the week off and get that all important HGA in the preliminary final. Head-to-head, this is the 6th instalment of what is becoming an epic rivalry but for now, Dublin leads 3-2. Had these two teams played each other every week this year, Dublin also leads 12-5 which makes sense as they were the highest scoring team of the year. Mexico City took a little while to get things going in the early parts of the year, but they have stormed home to become the 3rd highest scoring team of the year and remain one of the few teams that could beat Dublin. Seeing as London didn't make the finals, that number is one fewer. It is without question that Dublin are the raging favourites to win the premiership, and as such, not one external coach wants them to win it. Who knows? Dublin are just about overdue to score below 160 (hasn't happened in 5 weeks), and Mexico City have been posting 160+ scores every second week. Regardless, this is going to be one helluva match. I can't tip against the favourites however, and I think Dublin will win.   


I'd wager that PNL are perhaps the most likeable team by the non-finalists. Why? Because they have done it tough; underachieving for so long with the aid of brutally unfortunate results by some intangible force. Not this year though. HP and Dazburg's Reindeers are a genuine powerhouse of the competition and as such are perfectly capable of winning the premiership! Perhaps another reason why these Reindeer's are so well liked, is well, because they haven't won a premiership before, and I think the majority of people would be hoping for a virgin premiership winning team. The Reindeer's opponents also fit that description, with meow meow's Christchurch a fierce embodiment of consistency at its must sustained levels of punishment. The Saints are composed of the mad man that built them and the inheritance of success from Sao Paulo, our other premiership winning (and disbanded) team along with Dublin and Mexico City. These two teams are perhaps the closest match-up of the round if you ask me. Why? Because had they played each other every match this year, PNL would be leading 9-8, with two encounters being decided by less than 3 SC points (both in the Saints favour). More intriguingly, the Saints would be up 4-2 in the last 6 weeks, so perhaps the Saints deserve favouritism? Well, they don't IMO, because the Reindeers are the second highest scoring team of the year, having scored approximately 1,020 more SC points than the 5th highest scoring team in Christchurch, plus the Reindeers are hosting the game in France, where they emerged victorious against the Saints in Round 2 in a low scoring affair. This is a truly interesting game and fits the bill for a blockbuster. BUT, I'm going to tip the Saints ( :o), with Shiel's continued absence to expose PNL's M4 against the mighty depth at Christchurch.


The Islanders I think are the feel good story of the season; having come from Wooden Spooner's to elimination final hosts in the space of one year! The Islanders walk into this match as favourites and as the form team; currently on 6 wins in a row to storm into the finals. Pacific's highlights this year would include its win against 6th placed Berlin in Round 5 but it was the win against New York in Round 14 that set the wheels in motion into its historic debut finals appearance. Moscow, well, is really quite interesting at the moment. The Spetsnaz boast 10 scores over 140 and two others over 130; looking genuinely scary between rounds 6 and 14 with a high scoring consistency that would make claim to a top 4 spot. But... the team as hit the wall, and I mean really hit the wall. It's last 5 games has seen one win (last week against a lowly Buenos Aires), with its last 3 scores reading 106, 133 and 122, to go along with its 3 sub 130 scores in the first 5 rounds of the season. It wasn't long ago that the Spetsnaz were hoping of a qualifying final, but it got - one wrong coaching move from Buenos Aires - away from missing the finals! The Spetsnaz capitulation is truly remarkable, and that form won't see it get past the Islanders, whom have not scored below 134 since Round 9! But, the main thing to take out of this from Moscow, is that is made the finals; it's where it needs to be at the pointy end of the season, and what happened in the Home and Away season is now of zero importance. What the Spetsnaz have over the Islanders is high-scoring ability. The Islanders top score this season was 148; a score the Spetsnaz have equalled or surpassed 6 times this year. Had these two teams played each other every match this year, the Spetsnaz would be leading 9-8, which makes sense seeing as they are the 8th (Pacific) and 9th (Moscow) highest scoring teams of the year. This is a very intriguing match, perhaps mainly because we have no idea whether Moscow will show up or not! I think if they do, then they will progress. If not, then Pacific will. Recent history suggests that they won't, so I'm going to tip the Islanders in a historic first finals win!


This has been a really good year for the Brewers. Berlin sit 4th on the points ladder and has rebounded from its 10th placing in 2014 in hope to emulate its finals run in 2013 where it got as far as the preliminary finals. Compared to 2013, the Brewers are a much stronger side and are capable of beating anyone on its day. With only one score registering below 130 this year, it has addressed the gap between its best and its worst since by pretty much increasing both... but the disparity remains. The Brewers have twice hit the 160 barrier and a further two times the 150 barrier but its normal output seems to be in the 140s, where it has infamously lost 5 games whilst scoring in this range this year; accounting for its perhaps unjust placing of 6th. One of the major reasons of Berlin's firepower is because of the rise of Nat Fyfe has the games premier midfielder, who has missed the last two weeks due to injury. Fortunately for the Brewers, Fyfe looks like he will be back just in time to take on the Revolution, a team they lost to in Round 2 by approximately 40 SC points. The Revolution have just been so, so impressive this year. It's strange, because there has been less fanfare about the Revolution's debut finals appearance than that of Pacific... and I'll tell you why. It's because New York got themselves two new co-coaches who had a plan to go big, and big they went in the trading period where it was so successful that everyone just assumed that they would make it. Now they have. Lengthy injuries to key players along the way this year has probably detracted the fact of just how good this team is, and how fortunate the competition has been that they haven't been fully fit at all this year. But, they just keep on posting these great scores and keep on winning and have thoroughly deserved to make it to the finals. As previously mentioned, the Revolution beat the Brewers earlier in the year which was a first for them, as Berlin lead 3-1 in the head-to-head. Had these two teams played each other every week this year, Berlin would be ahead 11-6 including winning the past 4 weeks where New York has stumbled somewhat which just one score over 140. The Brewers would be counting on a fit and firing Nat Fyfe to get over the Revolution this time (especially without Treloar), as it would fancy itself to pinch a spot in the prelims if it did. It's going to be close, and I'm going to be tense, but Berlin lead the key indicators and as such will back myself in to win my first home elimination final.




And don't forget the reserves!

There are four teams (Beijing, Tokyo, London and Cape Town) who have made Reserves finals but not the seniors. What I require from you, is that you NAME YOUR BEST SENIOR XV like you were playing finals. I will be scrutinising your best XV to determine if that is really who you would play, so as to ensure that the players available for the reserves matches are the ones that would normally be available. If I don't agree, then I will name one for you.

Home Team		Away Team	Venue
Marseille Kings	v	Imperial Princes	State de France
Shanghai Storm	v	Yuzawa Yakuza	Beijing Olympic Park
Port Morseby Iguanadons	v	Wellington Weta	Linkbelt Oval, Aiwo, Nauru
Durban Pirates	v	Siberian Wolverines	Newlands Cricket Ground

There is no HGA in reserve matches :)

[Holz]

It is without question that Dublin are the raging favourites to win the premiership, and as such, not one external coach wants them to win it.

I reckon your wrong here, I think Vinny has my back.

I like dynasty's its why Geelong is my second team and why after Geelong/North im  hoping for a Hawks win. Back to back is history in the making, history is interesting.

[Memphistopheles]

My support is behind the team that gave us Blicavs so generously in the off-season.

Sorry Purple but here's to New York knocking off the Brewers this week...

As for a team for us here you go.

Def: Shaun Higgins, Jasper Pittard, Shane Savage, Andrejs Everitt
Mid: Josh P. Kenned, Trent Cotchin, Dom Tyson, Ed Curnow
Ruc: Stefan Martin
Fwd: Tom Hawkins, Lachie Hunter, Jeremy Cameron, Stewart Crameri
Uti: Mark Blicavs, Nick Haynes

Our reserves are unlucky to not have the services of Everitt as Gwilt would be in our best side had he not gotten injured this week.

That means roughly our reserves side will look like this:

Def: Will Schofield, Gary Rohan, Cam O'Shea, Billie Smedts
Mid: Scott Selwood, Nick O'Brien, Darcy Lang, George Horlin-Smith
Ruc: Billy Longer
Fwd: Sam Reid, Cam McCarthy, Brandon Jack, Jimmy Toumpas

Not all of these guys played last week though. The Cooney suspension and Gwilt injury will hit our reserves side a bit.

Others who could get a game (aren't injured) are: Peter Wright, Craig Bird, Mitch Honeychurch, Jake Kelly, Dean Kent, Trent Dumont, Matt Dick, Brant Colledge, Lachie Plowman

[Jukes]

Would like to personally guarantee a 20+ point Pacific victory this week

Team later

[RaisyDaisy]

Awesome write up as usual Purp. Love reading your weekly review

And thanks for the support Memph - we're going to need it!

Don't see how we can beat Berlin this week, but it has been a great first year for us to make the finals like we have. When you consider we haven't had Libba at all, Duncan was out ages injured, Bennell was out for ages and even Montagna missed several games early - not to mention having no ruck for weeks and playing OOP - I think all of that considered really does make it a great effort for us to have made the finals

Anything is possible, and we'll be doing our best this week, but Berlin are the deserving favourites even with no Treloar

[Nige]

Christchurch hype train, here we go!

[Holz]

Christchurch hype train, here we go!

I was starting to like you Nige.

Back to square one.

[Nige]

Christchurch hype train, here we go!

I was starting to like you Nige.

Back to square one.

Hehe, gotta keep it interesting.  :P

[GoLions]

Christchurch hype train, here we go!

I was starting to like you Nige.

Back to square one.

And to think we were about to offer you Prestia or Beams!

Back to square one.

[Jay]

Christchurch hype train, here we go!

The rags to riches story of Pacific isn't good enough for you? :'(

[Jukes]

D: Dunn, Vlastuin, Docherty, Hombsch
M: Heppell (cc), Ward, Armitage, Sheed
R: Monfries (OOP)
F: Gray (cc), Hogan, Daniher, Jenkins
U: Clancee Pearce, May

Emg: Moore, Alex Pearce, Vickery

[Jroo]

Johnson, Ox and Lids back for us
Buddy and Bob back for Dublin

Both teams going to be at full strength, bring it on Holz  8)

[Holz]

Johnson, Ox and Lids back for us
Buddy and Bob back for Dublin

Both teams going to be at full strength, bring it on Holz  8)

Welcome to the crooke Park fortress.

No team bar London likes it here.

[meow meow]

the mighty depth at Christchurch

is being tested. Scully and Vandenberg are joining Lester and Gibbs on the sidelines for the rest of the year, Wilbur and Hrovat can't get a game despite being better than players in the seniors. Luckily Steele will be back this week, and Harris is more than capable of holding down a spot in the XV.

[My Chumps]

Going for Berlin for the rest of the finals series, Purps deserves a decent run at it - and they've done it before! But it all depends on weather Fyfe's back this week IMO.

Predicitions

Dublin
vs
Mexico
               Mexico
               vs
               Berlin
Berlin                           Dublin
vs                                vs
NYR                             Mexico         Dublin
                                                      vs           Premiers: Dublin
Pacific                          PNL             PNL
vs                                vs
Moscow                        Pacific
               Pacific
               vs
               Christchurch
PNL
vs
Christchurch