LaHug's Captains 2015 - Round 19 - Last LHC for the year!

[LaHug]

5 years. 5 long years I've been doing this and all I've got out of it is a HoF induction, lots of appreciation, some satisfaction, and a bit of fun. Actually, that's not half bad! Now if only someone would pay me... ;)

I'm back again! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

This will be my last week for the year as I'm about to go travelling for 6 months. Sorry all but you'll have to face finals without me!

The facts:

Thompson
Last 3: 79, 118, 126 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 105, 128, 100 (111 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 118, 126, 97 (114 avg)

Dangerfield
Last 3: 89, 138, 90 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 95, 114, 84 (98 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 138, 90, 105 (111 avg)

Martin
Last 3: 90, 100, 98 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 80, 106, 109 (98 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 96, 80 (88 avg)

Cotchin
Last 3: 98, 79, 83 (87 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 118, 71, 111 (100 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 56, 118 (87 avg)

Ellis
Last 3: 106, 116, 94 (105 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 91, 112, 50 (84 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 117, 91 (104 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 93, 113, 102 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 135, 128, 91 (118 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 93, 152, 101 (115 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 117, 111, 91 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 104, 92, 102 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 117, 85, 117 (106 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 80, 130, 128 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 147, 75, 76 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 80, 106, 89 (92 avg)

Murphy
Last 3: 80, 117, 106 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 83, 74, 74 (77 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 92, 122, 128 (114 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 76, 129, 49 (85 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 87, 92, 133 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 76, 129, 143 (116 avg)

Macrae
Last 3: 102, 116, 105 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 130, 103, 71 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 102, 116, 109 (109 avg)

Gray
Last 3: 121, 67, 101 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 91, 106, 34 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 67, 71, 76 (71 avg)

Ebert
Last 3: 88, 101, 97 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 134, 84, 105 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 101, 111, 55 (89 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 124, 53, 111 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 0, 190, 157 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 53, 128, 90 (90 avg)

Priddis
Last 3: 106, 142, 82 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 100, 106, 93 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 142, 136, 99 (126 avg)

Gaff
Last 3: 96, 100, 114 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 135, 108, 45 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 100, 152, 102 (118 avg)

Hodge
Last 3: 104, 140, 133 (126 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 120, 101, 99 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 126, 99, 87 (104 avg)

Lewis
Last 3: 109, 111, 98 (106 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 111, 98, 69 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 156, 69, 101 (109 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 146, 106, 94 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 80, 104, 110 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 146, 75, 94 (105 avg)

Hannebery
Last 3: 153, 86, 90 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 99, 105, 92 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 92, 58, 71 (74 avg)

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 108, 95, 108 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 121, 123, 90 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 90, 98, 87 (92 avg)

Goldstein
Last 3: 102, 103, 175 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 99, 137, 103 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 133, 99, 67 (100 avg)

Treloar
Last 3: 127, 106, 78 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 130, 72, 109 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 109, 131, 120 (120 avg)

Heppell
Last 3: 109, 99, 58 (89 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 89, 102 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 89, 102 (96 avg)

Stanton
Last 3: 146, 124, 122 (131 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 88, 80, 51 (73 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 88, 80, 93 (87 avg)

Armitage
Last 3: 77, 73, 110 (87 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 121, 62, 99 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 110, 140, 105 (118 avg)

Steven
Last 3: 106, 87, 101 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 148, 93, 81 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 101, 142, 113 (119 avg)

Montagna
Last 3: 90, 89, 98 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 91, 189, 117 (132 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 98, 120, 117 (112 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 114, 106, 81 (100 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 97, 56, 111 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 79, 97, 134 (103 avg)

Mundy
Last 3: 103, 99, 120 (107 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 55, 116, 89 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 67, 55, 73 (65 avg)

The thoughts:

Thompson
Why you shouldn't give him the C: he's playing the super stingy Richmond. Why you should: 8 straight tons against them. Last time he scored under 100 on the Tigers was 2007. Now, I don't think he goes nuts by any stretch but a sure ton. Prediction - 110

Dangerfield
Not against Richmond without a great history supporting him... Prediction - 85

Martin
Adelaide gave up 8 tons last week, all of them 108+, 5 of them 120+, and 3 of them above 130! Someone in Richmond will surely take advantage of this leakiness and Dusty's ability to score huge on occasion could mean it's him. Still, record and form say otherwise. Prediction - 105

Cotchin
Slightly better recent history against the Crows but shocking current form so Cotch might not be huge either. Prediction - 100

Ellis
Ellis has the slightly better recent form but is hardly great against the Crows either. So which Tiger is going big?? (Hint, check the next section.) Prediction - 110

Pendlebury
Pendles loves the Blues and the Blues have given some solid tons to mids the last couple of weeks (Ziebell's 123, Hodge's 140, Mitchell's 124). Prediction - 130

Swan
Good last couple of weeks but doesn't have the history against the Blues that Pendles has. Prediction - 110

Sidebottom
Huge in their matchup late last year but you really can't look at Sidebottom with his inconsistency this year. If not for last week's reminder, I'd be more tempted. Prediction - 110

Murphy
Was in great form before Ben Jacobs happened but I think he can regain the form and get another ton. However, his poor history against the Pies will make that a challenge. Prediction - 100

Boyd
Thinking that last week's subbing was a "resting because we're up heaps" move. Still, his form against Port is hardly exciting. Prediction - 90

Macrae
Meanwhile, Macrae spanked the Power for a 130 earlier this year and will look to go big again. Prediction - 120

Gray
Just awful at Etihad recently and last week's 121 looks likely to be just a flash in the pan in an otherwise disappointing second half of the season. Prediction - 85

Ebert
Smashed the Doggies earlier this year but his second half blues have held him down. Prediction - 95

Rockliff
If you have a 0 in the last game against an opponent but still a three game average of 116, you really like playing that opponent. Rocky will smash the Suns. Prediction - 140

Priddis
Consistently average against the Hawks but dominant at home of late. In the biggest Home and Away game of the season, he should be good. Still, Hawks have only given up 3 tons in the last two weeks, with a 117, a 106, and a 102. Prediction - 110

Gaff
After 9 straight tons, Gaff finally missed with a 96 last week. He hit Hawthorn for 135 last year and should be very good again at home where he's scoring well. Be wary of the Hawks and their stinginess of late. Prediction - 115

Hodge
Hodge managed a 104 against a stingy Richmond (I expected more, admittedly) and is in fantastic form. He's good against the Eagles and managed to score well in Perth last time he was there. Prediction - 125

Lewis
Is Lewis finally back? A couple of tons in a row plus a big score last time he visited WA make him tempting. Prediction - 110

Selwood
Finally a big score from Selwood last week but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he fell back to Earth this week. Prediction - 100

Hannebery
HUGE last week but average against the Cats and poor in Geelong. Prediction - 90

J.P. Kennedy
Meanwhile, JPK loves playing the Cats. Still, at the Cattery is a tougher ask than elsewhere. Prediction - 110

Goldstein
Goldy or Coldy? In the last two weeks, Goldstein's been disappointing in his last two and is really looking to bounce back this week. There's not a whole lot going for him this week, however, with the good scores surrounded by lesser ones. Add that Melbourne held Witts to 64, Grundy to 63, and Longer to 53 in the last two weeks, and things look bleak. I have faith in Goldy but I won't be putting the C near him this week. Prediction - 110

Treloar
Essendon are awful but, at the same time, they've only given up one score of 120+ in their past two losses. I think Treloar's last couple of weeks and his last game against them means he can add another one. Prediction - 120

Heppell
Heppell's been struggling along with his Bombers and you'd need to see a resurgence, and fast, to consider him for the rest of the year. Prediction - 95

Stanton
Stanton's form without Jobe in the side is too good to ignore, averaging 131 in the last three weeks! Sadly, he sucks against the Giants and over in Sydney's Inner West. I reckon he'll smash it regardless with his current form. Prediction - 115

Armitage
Two weeks away from home and Armitage forgets how to score. I like his 121 against the Dockers last year as a good omen but, more importantly, he's back at Etihad where he kills it. Too risky with the last two weeks but always worth a look. Prediction - 115

Steven
That 148 was two years ago but it's a sign of what he can do. Back under the roof, Steven will be roaring to score huge. Prediction - 125

Montagna
Yes, you're reading that right. In 2013, Joey Montagna scored 189 against the Dockers. His current form is poor but it's the same case as Armitage and Steven: two weeks away from home and a lot of struggles. Back home and with that history, he's worth a sneaky look. Prediction - 115

Barlow
I like his last two weeks but that's about all I like for Barlow right now. Prediction - 95

Mundy
Not sure what to take from those up and down scores but his record at Etihad is more than enough to keep me away. Prediction - 90

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Looks like I've lost my magic touch. Can I go out with a bang? In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Deledio
Last 3: 102, 68, 118 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 110, 129, 115 (118 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 111, 110 (111 avg)

If you read my thoughts on Dusty, you'll see that the Crows were stupidly leaky last week. A goal kicking midfielder, Hannebery, scored a massive 153 against them and, to top it off, Bennell scored 124 against them the week before. With Deledio's great last three against the Crows, are good two games at Adelaide Oval, he's gotta be worth a look. Gutsy Prediction - 140

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Back in form with the spuds but I'm not going to take the easy way out with another Ben Jacobs oponent. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Sloane
Last 3: 62, 90, 68 (73 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 79, 87, 67 (78 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 90, 109, 67 (89 avg)

If you traded him in (like I almost did), I'm so so sorry. His form has been shocking and, to make matter worse, he has a shocking history against Richmond. The icing on the cake? They're the stingiest team in Fantasy Football. Spudiction - 60

The verdict:
1.   Rockliff (140)
2.   Pendlebury (130)
3.   Steven (125)
4.   Hodge (125)
5.   Macrae (120)


Requests:

[LaHug]

Sorry it's up so late guys, frantically trying to get ready to leave. And yeah... this is the last one for the year. If anyone wants to take the next 4 weeks, that'd be super.

[nic-n-nat]

Massive thank you LaHug!!! Always a good insight and a great read.
Tossing up between Pendles, Rocky and Macrae.
Enjoy your travels!!!

[jvalles69]

Rocky for me.  Good job once again, I don't thank you enough!  ;)

[Thunderbolts]

La Hug - Thanks again for this, been another great year of reading and help!!

Rocky for me this week I think with Pendles as VC.

[T Dog]

Have a great break Huggy. Its a great thread you put out.
Go big Thommo tonight as VC   ;D

[colmullet]

Stefan Martin?

[The_Captain]

Stefan Martin?

This.... Starting to get form after that suspension now. And will be rucking solo. Expect to go big against weak Gold Coast ruck stocks.

[pommyadam]

SMartin:
Last 3: 134,96 ,90 (average 107)
Last 3 vs GC: 116, 122, 44 (average 94) - that 44 was in 2013
Last 3 at Gabba: 96, 136, 112 (average 115)
Rucks vs GC: last 3 of 90, last 5 of 97, season average of 98. A certain T Goldstein is the only one to top 120 against them this season.
Prediction: Good form check, vs opponent check, venue check - GC have been pretty restrictive since the bye, and I'm not convinced this is a smart call - solid, but not spectucular - 110

notes: I do quite rate Nicholls as a sole ruckman (he got double teamed by Carlton which is why Krooz and Wood did well, but no Leuey means this won't happen)

[colmullet]

Thanks mate, super tempted to put the big C on him

[LaHug]

Cheers PA. Please feel free to take over captains when I'm gone! Your stats are more indepth than mine anyway ;)

[HBTD22]

Backing in Rocky this week.

[ossie85]

Cheers for the work LH!

[Dave085]

Thanks for your efforts over the year. Good stuff.

Going with Rocky this week and Hodge VC