WXV Round 17: Prayers for a Buenos Aires Miracle

[Purple 77]

Round 17, AFL Round 19

Home Team		Away Team	Head-to-Head	Venue
Berlin Brewers	v	Toronto Wolves	2  v  1	Berlin Olympic Stadium
London Royals	v	Christchurch Saints	0  v  0	London Royals Olympic Stadium
Mexico City Suns	v	Dublin Destroyers	2  v  2	Fireball Stadium
Moscow Spetsnaz	v	Buenos Aires Armadillos	1  v  4	Luzhniki Stadium
New Delhi Tigers	v	Beijing Thunder	2  v  1	Tata Stadium   Billions Cup, EurAsia, Asia
PNL Reindeers	v	Cape Town Cobras	2  v  2	State de France
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	v	Cairo Sands	0  v  0	Maracana Stadium   AAP Alliance
Seoul Magpies	v	New York Revolution	2  v  1	Seoul World Cup Stadium
Tokyo Samurai	v	Pacific Islanders	0  v  3	Tokyo Olympic Stadium

Last weeks win saw the Berlin Brewers guarantee themselves a spot in the finals; its second appearance in the competitions 4 year existence and first since 2013. The Brewers were perhaps expected to be a team that may challenge for a spot in the finals at the start of the year, but have surprised most in being the 4th highest scoring team of the year and established themselves as an outside chance, yes a small chance, at a premiership. Although they cannot surpass their current standing of 5th on the ladder, they still have the potential to drop down to 7th, so there is still importance to win this match to gain its first ever home final. Toronto has the best percentage outside of the top 8, even better than the 8th placed Moscow, with they themselves sitting at the dreaded 9th position. A win is a non-negotiable. A loss will end a solid season featuring a bad form slump, a win would force Moscow to win themselves to stay in the eight. It is now that I point to Toronto's loss against Cairo as being so incredibly costly, and even the losses against Beijing and Tokyo. All the same, Berlin will go into this match as favourites, but the Wolves will go in the most desperate. Will back my Brewers in... Toronto would be praying Fyfe doesn't get up for this one.

London joined the 160 club last week... perhaps the absence of pressure of fighting for finals was a factor? Still, as the team that has beaten Dublin and PNL but defeated by bottom 6 teams Seoul and Beijing, the inconsistency is greater in no other team. That being said, Christchurch would be wary of the giant killing Royals, which although a defeat will unmove them from 4th on the ladder, a victory may get them into 3rd and avoid facing Dublin straight up in the qualifying final. This game is very important for the Saints, and the Royals would be aware of that, and would love nothing more than to make life harder for Christchurch. Had these two teams played each other every week of the season, perhaps surprisingly is that London would lead 9-7! That just exemplifies London's variation, and Christchurch's stability... huh, probably the most consistently good team plays the most inconsistently good team of the comp... that's pretty cool. London scored 160 last week, so the trend suggests a Christchurch win... who I am to go against the trend?

This is possibly the match we have all been waiting for; almost cruel to schedule it on the last round of the year and make everyone wait 17 weeks! The two highest scoring teams of the season and ladder go head to go in last year's Grand Final rematch (and possibly this year's preview), and its gonna be AWESOME! The Destroyers have top spot secured, so there is nothing to lose in that regard. Mexico City sit second with the potential to drop to 4th, and face Dublin all over again next week, so there is something to play for in that regard! Something both teams will be playing for is 1) bragging rights and 2) The World Idol! Yes, these two teams are the last standing in the simple knock-out comp, which Mexico City were close at time from being eliminated from when it struggled briefly in the early part of the season. The Suns would be very glad to boast HGA in every facet of this game, that is for sure. In the last 4 weeks, Dublin have scored 677 points at an average of 169.25 (3 away games) compared to Mexico City's 653 at 163.25 (3 home games), so Dublin do enter as the form team, but both are the form teams of the comp and the perfect end of the season. Who will win? Well the probabilities suggest Dublin... and that is who I will tip. Sure would love the Suns to win though :P.

What's that I hear? You say how could I possibly overlook the above game as my match of the round? Well dear coach, it's because it hardly matters in the scheme of things. This is the match with the consequences, and is clearly my MATCH OF THE ROUND! Moscow have lost three on the trot; dropping from 5th, looking crazy consistent and challenging for a spot in the 4 to in danger of missing a place in the finals! Fortunately, their last game of the season is close to un-lose-able; at home and playing the second lowest scoring team of the year whom have never played a genuine ruckman in 2015. If the universe truly hated Moscow and Buenos Aires were to win, then it would open the door for Toronto, Tokyo or Cape Town to kick them out and take the last place in finals. Buenos Aires will have never had so much support this week. Had these two teams played against each other every week this year, Moscow would be leading 15-1, BUT, that one loss would have happened just 2 weeks ago! Also, Buenos Aires' best of 133 would have beaten Moscow 4 times this year... it's not impossibly, just highly unlikely. Moscow should win here.

New Delhi's season of hell is almost finished, with a wooden spoon ready to be posted to them in the mail. The Tigers have 6 times scored less than 100, 4 times 100-110, 2 times 110-120, 2 times 120-130, 1 time between 130-140 and one 142. Injuries have been the major villain to the Tigers season; often crippling any chance of competing, evident by Mumbai also being the lowest scoring reserves team and winless. But, that win against Cairo was pretty special, wasn't it? With a priority pick coming the tigers way, things are looking up for a successful off-season to bring this team back up to competing levels and leaving their worst season behind them. Beijing have been a real feel good story this year; coming from cellar last year to getting as high as 5th after Round 7! But they hit the wall after that, only winning one more game since and a disaster loss here away from Rio condemning them to the bottom 4. I've said for a while now that New Delhi have got one more win in them, and this is their last chance. But the Tigers gotta pull something special out, as the Thunder have been eerily consistent in the past 7 weeks, not once dipping below 130 or exceeding 140. I've been told this was becoming a habit with me talking NDT up only to tip against them, so I bloody will now! COME ON TIGERS!

The Reindeers... who would have thought ey? The team whom always had quality amongst their ranks, but cursed with an almost cruel run of luck, year in, year out. Not this year though. This year they are an established powerhouse and a genuine shot at the premiership... they are the equal second highest scoring team of the year you know! The Reindeers lost last week against the Suns which would have hurt their pride/confidence somewhat, but they still scored 154 in the process and didn't do their reputation any harm. It's almost a case of cruel irony for Cape Town; the team that beat PNL in the elimination final last year, only now PNL would rise further next year and be the team likely to put the nail in the coffin for the Cobras season. The Cobras put everything into last weeks inspired win against the Spetsnaz in what looked like an last ditch attempt at finals. As previously mentioned, the Cobras are relying on Buenos Aires beating Moscow and counting on themselves beating PNL by enough to eclipse the percentage of its competitors for the final spot... it's probably not gonna happen. It's now that Cape Town's poor start to the season costs them, where they lost the opening 3 matches against Berlin, Toronto and London. No matter how you shape it, this year has been disappointing for the Cobras, and I'll tip that PNL ends it for them.

This game is all about pride; and both teams have cases of wanting it more than the other. I will unofficially say now that Rio has been the most unluckiest team of the year; the 6th highest scoring team of the year, GAJ-less for most of it, sits 5-11 and 15th on the ladder. Dayum. Cairo, or Karen as it is affectionally called, is a proud club whom has endured its worst season of its history, sitting 2-14 and 16th... probably rightfully so, being the 3rd lowest scoring team of the year. But that was probably due to having a chunk of its best players missing games for significant periods of time, and other hindrances unforeseen. Cairo is also coming off (I'm assuming) its worst 3 weeks of WXVs ever, registering a combined 312 points in this time. But,that's life I suppose. At least Hugh Goddard and Jack Lonie has received rising star nominations this year! On that stat alone you'd think Rio would have this in the bag, but you know what their luck has been like. The Jags for me.

I reckon Seoul has been the ying-yang team of the season. Unlike Beijing who have their wins grouped on one half of the season, Seoul actually look like a different team since say, Round 8. In the first eight rounds, they averaged 126 with a high of 134, netting them a lucky 3 wins. In the 8 rounds after that, Seoul have averaged 135 with a high of 149 netting them 4 wins, and the Asian Cup. It's crazy. I said day one of this year that I liked Seoul's list, and I still do, coz they have a young core with great, great potential on every line! They probably don't have to do any trading you know to challenge for finals next year, especially with Patrick Dangerfield leading the way. New York has capped off its finest season by guaranteeing a place in finals last week in what will be its first ever appearance! The new coaches must be al-right over at New York  ;). Seoul are out of the finals race, and New York are guaranteed a spot, so the stakes are fairly non-existent. But, a win for the Revolution would give them the best chance to surpass their current spot at 7th and book a home elimination final, so there is still something to play for! New York for mine.

The Samurai I reckon have been the most under-the-radar team of the year IMO. No low enough to criticise, not high enough to heap on pressure... just one of these middle-tier teams that most seemed to have missed could still make finals! Heck, if they beat Seoul 2 weeks ago like they perhaps should have, they'd be in the eight right now probably! Tokyo are in the same boat as Toronto and Cape Town, so all they can control now is trying to get a win and put the pressure on Moscow to beat Buenos Aires. But their opponent has been playing inspired football for a good month now, and have guaranteed themselves a place in finals for the first time ever! Well done Pacific! I made a really big deal out of this at the time, but it all began when the Islanders beat the Revolution in Round 14... that game was so vital, and got them into the finals if you ask me. Actually, the Islanders have won 5 on the trot, including last weeks impressive win over Seoul with a handful of its core XV out! They'd be nervously awaiting their return for next week, that is for sure. The Islanders sit 6th, so a win will give them a home elimination final, which could be very important for them so they wouldn't want to lose this one. But, I think I'm actually gonna back the home team in Tokyo!

[Purple 77]

Buenos Aires was the last team to be mentioned in the Game thread title... perfectly timed if you ask me!

[Holz]

What a jip 1 v 2 and not the match of the round


Its the match of the home and away season purp.

[roo boys!]

Feels a bit strange this week, this is the first game in Wolves history where I don't really have anything to play for  :-\

Toronto Wolves
D: J.Kelly, R.Shaw, A.Toovey, M.Maguire
M: S.Pendlebury (C), I.Smith, B.Cunnington, A.Swallow (VC)
R: P.Ryder
F: J.Ziebell, J.Crisp, M.Pavlich, M.Robinson
I: R.Griffen, K.Turner

E: L.Henderson, T.Hickey, H.Schade

Do Hendo/Hickey deserve a spot over Turner with Douglas out? I dunno, you tell me. It's Rising Star time :)

[Holz]

Feels a bit strange this week, this is the first game in Wolves history where I don't really have anything to play for  :-\

you can still mathemtically make finals all you can do is win and hope the rest falls your way.

Pendles might want to move to a finals team.

[RaisyDaisy]

Sorry for the noob question, but with finals starting next week can we rest a player this week?

[Hellopplz]

Sorry for the noob question, but with finals starting next week can we rest a player this week?

Sadly nope :(. Last week to rest somebody was last round, the flooding/attacking tactics can still be used this week though (just not in Finals).

[RaisyDaisy]

Probably should have read my new PM's before posting here lol

Just saw it in Purps weekly PM

[meow meow]

CHRISTCHURCH SAINTS

B: Jake Lever, Liam Picken, Harris Andrews
M: Matthew Boyd, Hamish Hartlett, Luke Shuey, Sam Mitchell
R: Aaron Sandilands (C)
F: Ben Reid, Jamie Elliott, Jake Stringer, Tory Dickson, Dayne Zorko (VC)
I: Tom Scully, Jack Steele

E: Aaron Vandenberg, Sam Gilbert, Jeff Garlett

[roo boys!]

Feels a bit strange this week, this is the first game in Wolves history where I don't really have anything to play for  :-\

you can still mathemtically make finals all you can do is win and hope the rest falls your way.

Pendles might want to move to a finals team.

Realistically though, with no attacks left and no Douglas I won't beat Berlin, and Moscow simply won't lose

I'm okay for ruckmen at this stage, but I'll make sure to let you know :)

[Purple 77]

Sorry for the noob question, but with finals starting next week can we rest a player this week?

Sadly nope :(. Last week to rest somebody was last round, the flooding/attacking tactics can still be used this week though (just not in Finals).

^^ for everyone.

[Memphistopheles]

Our players have found form at the wrong end of the season.

At least we are seeing some good signs from our young kids though. That's a positive at least.

And, the fact we can go out with a banging win against PNL who like Moscow are one of our bunny teams ... especially in finals :P. Naming an early team just in case I'm not around at lockout on Friday.

#CobraStrike

Def: Shaun Higgins, Jasper Pittard, James Gwilt, Shane Savage
Mid: Josh P. Kennedy, Trent Cotchin (CC), Dom Tyson, Ed Curnow
Ruc: Stefan Martin (CC)
Fwd: Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron, Lachie Hunter, Stewart Crameri
Uti: Mark Blicavs, Adam Cooney

Eme: Nick O'Brien (M), Billy Longer (R), Cam O'Shea (D)

[Toga]

Beijing Thunder:
D: H.Taylor, C.Hooker, J.Thurlow, T.Varcoe
M: L.Neale (C), J.Caddy (VC), L.Shiels, T.Miller
R: B.Grundy
F: T.Bell, E.Betts, K.Lambert, S.Gray
I/C: M.Kreuzer, S.Mayes

Emg:M.Weller, C.Dawes (fwd), C.Wood (ruc)

[Holz]

Beijing Thunder:
D: H.Taylor, C.Hooker, J.Thurlow, T.Varcoe
M: L.Neale (CC), J.Caddy (CC), L.Shiels, T.Miller
R: B.Grundy
F: T.Bell, E.Betts, K.Lambert, S.Gray
I/C: M.Kreuzer, M.Weller

Emg: S.Mayes (def/mid), C.Dawes (fwd), C.Wood (ruc)

both CCs Dubliners, given away soo cheaply :(

Tom Bell could have been a Dubliner but I chose Josh Bootsma over him :( :(

[Toga]

All Beijingers :D