LaHug's Captains 2015 - Round 18

[LaHug]

I'll be shaving off my precious beard on July 31st for Cancer Council Victoria. Please consider donating generously: http://vic.cancercouncilfundraising.org.au/WilliamHuggett



5 years. 5 long years I've been doing this and all I've got out of it is a HoF induction, lots of appreciation, some satisfaction, and a bit of fun. Actually, that's not half bad! Now if only someone would pay me... ;)

I'm back again! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

GAJ out, Goldy quietened, Rocky tagged... what to do this week?

The facts:

Hodge
Last 3: 140, 133, 148 (140 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 115, 85, 91 (97 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 120, 52, 111 (94 avg)

Lewis
Last 3: 111, 98, 108 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 99, 71, 68 (79 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 125, 82, 116 (108 avg)

Martin
Last 3: 100, 98, 65 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 71, 84, 104 (86 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 65, 132 (99 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 106, 94, 75 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 139, 104, 97 (113 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 75, 94, 137 (102 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 53, 111, 128 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 140, 77, 128 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 140, 87 (114 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 77, 125, 133 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 87, 137, 100 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: N/A

Pendlebury
Last 3: 113, 102, 112 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 119, 100, 117 (112 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 152, 101, 119 (124 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 130, 128, 107 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 62, 71, 150 (94 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 106, 89, 62 (86 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 111, 91, 132 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 103, 114, 130 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 85, 117, 103 (102 avg)

Hannebery
Last 3: 86, 90, 127 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 80, 136, 78 (98 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 146, 96, 133 (125 avg)

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 95, 108, 132 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 83, 65, 133 (94 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 151, 114, 80 (115 avg)

Dangerfield
Last 3: 138, 90, 142 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 83, 89, 71 (81 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 104 (104 avg)

Goldstein
Last 3: 103, 175, 140 (139 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 97, 73, 59 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 175, 140, 122 (146 avg)

Priddis
Last 3: 142, 82, 136 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 155, 103, 108 (122 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 103, 81 (92 avg)

Gaff
Last 3: 100, 114, 152 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 91, 98, 79 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 98 (98 avg)

Gray
Last 3: 67, 101, 86 (85 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 124, 81, 120 (108 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 101, 86, 86 (91 avg)

Ebert
Last 3: 101, 97, 75 (91 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 110, 83, 125 (106 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 97, 75, 116 (96 avg)

Armitage
Last 3: 73, 110, 84 (89 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 87, 55, 33 (58 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 108, 95 (102 avg)

Steven
Last 3: 87, 101, 136 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 101, 115, 115 (110 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 101, 98, 101 (100 avg)

Montagna
Last 3: 89, 98, 124 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 66, 140, 72 (93 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 89, 66 (78 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 106, 81, 110 (99 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 89, 106, 103 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 81, 91, 117 (96 avg)

Mundy
Last 3: 99, 120, 94 (104 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 92, 75, 57 (75 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 120, 113, 91 (108 avg)

Treloar
Last 3: 106, 78, 109 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 91, 106 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 63, 91, 106 (87 avg)

Heppell
Last 3: 99, 58, 94 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 103, 98, 119 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 99, 58, 124 (94 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 129, 49, 111 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 70, 94, 132 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 129, 143, 108 (127 avg)

Macrae
Last 3: 116, 105, 143 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 129, 88 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 116, 109, 117 (114 avg)

The thoughts:

Hodge
Hodgey's on fire but the Tigers are STILL super stingy. If anyone will buck the trend, it's Hodge. Prediction - 125

Lewis
I was wrong about him last week but I don't like his record against the Tigers and I think their stinginess hurts him. Prediction - 90

Martin
A couple of reasonable scores in a row but Dusty has no chance against the Hawks. Prediction - 85

Selwood
I've said "if he's gonna score well, this is the week" too many times this season about Selwood. However, he did score big on the Lions last year and his only 130+ this year came at Kardinia. What I'm saying is, there's a chance (albeit not a big one). Prediction - 105

Rockliff
Unlikely to cop the same kind of attention that shut him down last week which means a big score in line for Rocky. He's done well on the Cats before and he was doing well before Jacobs (and a 72 point loss). Prediction - 125

Beams
Apparently he's playing this week. Don't touch him with that shoulder. Prediction - 90

Pendlebury
8 weeks ago, Vince tagged Pendles and did absolutely nothing to him. I wouldn't be surprised if Viney had a try this week but I'd expect the result to be the same. Prediction - 115

Sidebottom
Sidebum's form is great and his score this week depends on whether he gets tagged or not. I'm leaning towards not and a solid score but be wary. Prediction - 110

Swan
Swanny used to destroy the Dees but he's been a bit quieter in recent match ups. Still, if a bit quieter still means a certain ton, I'm keen. Prediction - 115

Hannebery
Dan's done his best work at the SCG this year, averaging 126 there from 5 games. The Crows have been a little leaky the last few weeks (even with GAJ getting injured against them) so I'd back Hanners for a solid ton. Prediction - 110

J.P. Kennedy
In pretty decent form but not great against the Crows. Prediction - 100

Dangerfield
On fire at the moment but don't forget the Swans stinginess. The last two weeks have been leaky in massive losses against elite teams. Against the Crows I'd expect the stingy Swans to be back. Stay away. Prediction - 80

Goldstein
The fact that a 103 last week was incredibly disappointing shows just how good this guy's been playing. He has poor history against the Blues but he was similarly poor against the Bombers before pulling out a 175. Carlton have given up 105, 102, and 94 to top rucks in the past few weeks, which is hardly great. Still, with the way he's been playing recently, you'd have to back Goldy to be big. Prediction - 125

Priddis
No GAJ means a leaky Gold Coast. Priddis already loves to smash the Suns and got 155 against them earlier this year sans Ablett. Lock. Prediction - 140

Gaff
Gaff's never scored a ton against the Gold Coast Suns. 5 tries, no tons. Surely that ends this week but he was tagged to 91 by Sexton earlier this year. Fortunately for Gaff owners, Sexton's out injured this week which gives Gaff a more-than-solid chance. Prediction - 105

Gray
Been poor since I brought him in but his record against the Saints should see him reach the ton. Saint have only given up 3 tons in their last two games though, so no promises. Prediction - 100

Ebert
St Kilda's stinginess and Ebert's poor recent form are a troubling combination. However, his record against them might save him. Prediction - 100

Armitage
Port's his worst career team, by a long shot, but they gave up 5 tons last week and 2 (both 120+) the week before. Hmm... Prediction - 110

Steven
Meanwhile, Steven loves playing Port which, coupled with this year's big scoring, makes him a legitimate option. Prediction - 120

Montagna
Too out of form for me this week. Prediction - 95

Barlow
Tough one to call this week with Barlow in slightly better form than he has been and GWS giving up tons sometimes (Gold Coast) but being tight others (Geelong). Prediction - 100

Mundy
His last couple at home have been very nice and he should be on a high from that thing that totally didn't happen last week :( but I still wouldn't back him for anything big with his record against the Giants. Prediction - 95

Treloar
Not horrid against the Dockers but nothing to say he'll be great this week. Prediction - 100

Heppell
The Doggies have given up 9 tons in the last week so now's the time for Heppell to bounce back. Expect Stanton and Goddard to be decent too. Prediction - 110

Boyd
Boyd had a very solid score last week, repaying his owners for that disgusting 49 the week before. He's killing it at Etihad right now and Essendon are giving up 3 tons per game so expect a good one. Prediction - 120

Macrae
With his red hot form continuing, expect Macrae to feast on the hapless Bombers this week at his beloved Etihad. Boy I wish I hadn't doubted him previously. Prediction - 120

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Sloane did alright last week but far from a captain option. A couple of poor ones in a row but I'm bouncing back this week! In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Cotchin
Last 3: 79, 83, 92 (85 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 95, 137, 113 (115 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 79, 92, 145 (105 avg)

Super rough considering his last few weeks but Cotchin's got a bit going for him this week. He has scored well in the past and, even if the Tigers get flogged like Carlton did, Murphy proved that one elite midfielder can still score well... Wild Prediction - 135

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Lewis scored alright last week (in a total domination of the Blues). Will I be wrong two weeks in a row? Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Murphy
Last 3: 117, 106, 92 (105 avg)
Last 3 against North: 88, 93, 105 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 117, 108, 106 (110 avg)

Ben Jacobs. Spudiction - 65

The verdict:
1.   Priddis (140)
2.   Hodge (125)
3.   Goldstein (125)
4.   Rockliff (125)
5.   Steven (120)
6.   Macrae (120)


Requests:

[HBTD22]

No Goldstein? Could you have a look at him mate? Cheers.

[LaHug]

No Goldstein? Could you have a look at him mate? Cheers.

Hahaha, jeez. My bad. His numbers are in the spreadsheet but managed to fail copying it into the write up. Will add now.

[LaHug]

Fixed and chucked him in there where he belongs. I didn't want him to kick Macrae out of my top 5 so I stretched it to a 6 ;)

[Bill Manspeaker]

one of the only times I'm giving the C to a ruckman. don't let me down Goldy!

great work as usual Huggy  8)

[Thunderbolts]

Awesome read again!!

I think my C will be on Goldy even with his low 100 last week he has been a beacon of light. Got to risk it to take the wins

[LaHug]

I think any of the top 3 are good picks. I've got Priddis in AF but I'm choosing between him, Gaff, and Sidebottom to trade in for DT (for GAJ). So it'll depend on who I've got for who I put captain in that comp.

[HBTD22]

No Goldstein? Could you have a look at him mate? Cheers.

Hahaha, jeez. My bad. His numbers are in the spreadsheet but managed to fail copying it into the write up. Will add now.

No worries at all, appreciate the work you put into this. I think I'll go Goldy this week but I feel like the one week I do captain him it will be the week he has a bad score. I'm bringing in Priddis for GAJ but I can't captain players I have just brought in, I broke that rule last week with Ablett and look how that went...

[Jigsaw]

Captain Macrae, all the way. Locked and loaded 8)

[pommyadam]

I think any of the top 3 are good picks

big call with Hodge given that Richmond are tight

[LaHug]

I think any of the top 3 are good picks

big call with Hodge given that Richmond are tight

I like making big calls ;)