WXV Round 16: Reindeer Sleigh sets Course to Mexico City

[Purple 77]

Updated groups from last week:
- the impossibles (London, Beijing, Rio de Janeiro, Cairo, Buenos Aires, New Delhi)
- the unlikely (Seoul, Tokyo, Cape Town)
- the outside chances (Toronto)
- the likely (Moscow, New York, Pacific, Berlin)
- the guaranteed (Christchurch, Mexico City, PNL, Dublin)

Round 16, AFL Round 18

Home Team		Away Team	Head-to-Head	Venue
Beijing Thunder	v	New York Revolution	1  v  2	Beijing Olympic Park
Buenos Aires Armadillos	v	Dublin Destroyers	2  v  2	Estadio de River
Cape Town Cobras	v	Moscow Spetsnaz	3  v  0	Newlands Cricket Ground
Christchurch Saints	v	Toronto Wolves	0  v  0	AMI Stadium   AAP Alliance
London Royals	v	Cairo Sands	1  v  2	London Royals Olympic Stadium
Mexico City Suns	v	PNL Reindeers	3  v  0	Guadalajara
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	v	Berlin Brewers	0  v  0	Maracana Stadium
Seoul Magpies	v	Pacific Islanders	3  v  0	Seoul World Cup Stadium
Tokyo Samurai	v	New Delhi Tigers	2  v  1	Neutral, TIO Stadium   EurAsia, Asia

Beijing last week bowed out from the finals race, which is understandable seeing as they have only won one match from their past 8 games (including currently on 5 straight losses). But they'd still be keen to cause some havoc, and this is as perfect opportunity as they'll ever get as a win here would put New York in jeopardy of falling outside the 8! To describe the Revolution's year in one word, I'd use impressive, because they simply have been. Often without a range of their best players at disposal, the Revolution continue to post high scores and win games. But, the last two weeks they have scored 121 and 132... contrary to my one word description. Is the Revolution falling at the finish line? Beijing would fancy themselves big time on New York's form, as last week was the first time they dipped below 135 (with a 131) in 5 straight games. Boy, this could be a tense match for AK/RD! Especially when you consider it's hosted at Beijing. But, with players coming back at the right time of year for New York, I think this is the week they might hit that 150 barrier again so I'll back them in.

Hmm. Not much I can say about this match. If I were to grasp at straws, I'd point out that Buenos Aires' season high of 133 is the same as Dublin's season low of 133... so Buenos Aires just have to go into this match with an attacking mindset of trying to get as many points as possible, and see where that gets them. Dublin will surely rest someone this week in preparation for the blockbuster next week against Mexico City, maybe even Goldstein? Sure you'd probably have to play an OOP ruck, but the Armadillos have to as well. Am I trying to help Dublin for next week? Or am I trying to make them lose this week? I guess that's for the paranoid coach of Dublin to decide. But yeah, the Destroyers are capable of doubling the Dillos score this week, and I reckon they'll come close to achieving that.

It's do or die for the Cobras, whom only have a slight pulse left in the season sitting 10th but 2 games out of the 8. They face yet another quality opponent (third one in a row) in the Spetsnaz, who I think might have issues with Cobras seeing as they have never beaten them before. Cape Town have actually been pretty consistent all year; only twice dipping below 130 with the last incident happening all the way back at Round 5, compared to Moscow's 4 times, with its most recent offence happening in the round gone by. And what a capitulation it was. The Spetsnaz embarrassed themselves against the Destroyers with a paltry 106, showing that the young gun team of Moscow are prone to drastic form slips. Moscow have emerged from the trying 3 game patch against Mexico City, PNL and Dublin un-victorious and with a combined 487 points scored against them to destroy their position on the ladder and unbelievably sit 8th with a much lower percentage than the 9th placed Toronto. They can't lose this match, otherwise this season could turn into a nightmare. I've doubted the Spetsnaz before though, and they've proved me wrong so on those experiences I will tip the Spetsnaz.

This is a hugely vital match for the Wolves who are coming off a stunningly close victory (4 SC points) against Rio de Janeiro last week, keeping their finals hopes alive in the process. The Wolves sit 9th on the ladder with a better percentage than the two teams above them and only marginally below the percentage of 6th, which means if just one of those teams lose, a Toronto victory here will see them go into the eight. But, that isn't the biggest obstacle. Toronto's final two matches are against the 4th placed Saints and the 5th places Brewers, so a finals appearance will be well deserved. Christchurch have favourable odds to finish in the top 4, with only two straight losses against Toronto and London and two straight wins to the Brewers the only other feasible outcome. A win here however would not only guarantee a top 4 position, but a genuine shot at finishing 3rd if results go their way and avoid a qualifying final against Dublin. Christchurch have scored 150+ 3 times in the past 4 games, with the other score a below average 127. Toronto would see the Saints as gettable, as they have a similar form line with two 150+ scores, a 148 last week and a 128 in the past month. However, I will tip the home team in Christchurch, whom have been more consistent than the wolves this year.

In the most irrelevant match of the round (as both teams can't make the finals), it is a battle of pride as both teams would be disappointed with how their year unfolded. London did beat PNL and Dublin this year, but would be ruing the games against Tokyo, Beijing (decided by one WXV point) and Seoul as lower hurdles they couldn't jump over. For Cairo, they would be ruing the extended unavailability of Prestia, Mumford and Hanley for taking away any chance at success this year. The Sands are coming off (correct me if I'm wrong ossie) their lowest score in their history last week (97), no thanks to both of its C and VC pulling out of the match through injury. Is this rock bottom for Cairo? Well they could be decided with how they go this week in a relatively gettable opponent in London, infamous for the severity of their ups and downs. Reckon I'll tip London still, as Beams and Hanley might not even play this week.

There is no competition this week, as this is clearly my MATCH OF THE ROUND! The second highest scoring team in PNL take on the third highest scoring team in Mexico City, in a match that is likely to be the qualifying final preview and decide who will host the other in the qualifying final (barring the outside chance of Christchurch stealing 2nd or 3rd). Had these two teams played against each other every week, PNL would (surprisingly?) be leading 9-6, with its most recent win being last week decided by 2 SC points! The two games before that however would have seen Mexico City smash the Reindeers (486 points scored in the last 3 weeks compared to PNL's 447), as the Suns key players are all coming together at the right time of the year! An added interest to this game, is that both these teams remain in the World Idol along with Dublin, so the loser is likely to be eliminated from that as well (assuming Dublin continue crazy form). Boy howdy this will be a match, and I'm sure Mexico City would be happy they get to host it as that HGA might prove crucial! Interestingly enough, PNL have never beaten the Suns... which I suppose makes sense, as this is the first year PNL have been a powehouse as opposed to the Suns 4th year. My tip? The home and form team in Mexico City!

The Jaguars would be mighty pissed off about last week; losing by 4 SC points, but perhaps more frustrating was champion GAJ going down again to injury. Fortunately for them, his competitor for best mid in the comp in Fyfe is also out this week for the Brewers, in a match now that may be evenly matched. Yes the Brewers are 4th on the points ladder and 5th overall, but I've rated the Jaguars from round 1 and I still struggle to grasp that they are in the bottom 4. In fact, Rio is actually the 7th highest scoring team! I'll let that sink in for a moment. 15th overall, yet 7th on points. Just two weeks ago, we saw Rio join Dublin and Mexico City in the 170+ club, so I think it understandable for me to be very wary of this team. A loss here for the Brewers might see it in danger of dropping out of the eight in the following round should they lose again, but even then its superior percentage might keep it safe in the 8. I certainly don't want to be stressed out by two straight losses to put me in that situation, so I really want this win, as I'm sure Rio would love to get out of the bottom 4 and take some revenge on the World by causing trouble. I just don't feel confident about this week. So much so, that I'm actually going to tip Rio, as I think I might get found out without Fyfe this week.

Seoul is on a rampage! It's 3 straight wins has enabled it to have a very slim chance at making finals, which wouldn't have even been considered a month ago. With those wins, it also secured the Asian cup regardless of this result, so I think its safe to say that we are only now seeing what Seoul is capable of for next year in particular! Pacific have had an amazing, emotion-inspired month where it has secured 4 straight wins and a likely (but not certain) place in the finals! With Seoul and Tokyo to come (both teams below them on the ladder), they are even a mathematical chance at making the top 4! Wow, what a season for the Islanders! Both teams in the last 4 weeks combined are 7-1, so this might be an entertaining match of two teams playing inspired and proud WXVs footy. But, seeing as Pacific haven't dipped below 139 in the past 5 weeks, I think that consistency will overcome Seoul, despite them posting two scores higher than the Islanders season high in the past 4 weeks.

Utter heartbreak for the Samurai last week in going down to the unusually in form Seoul Magpies. A win there would have seen the Samurai a good chance at making finals with matches against New Delhi and Pacific to come, instead reduced to a mathematical outside chance. The Samurai have perhaps been overall fortunate to be as high as they are now, being the 5th lowest scoring team yet still a shot at making finals, as opposed to someone like Rio. But, they have shown they can match it with the best this year and would be looking forward to a successful off-season to improve themselves and take a shot at the eight next year. For New Delhi, well, this year hasn't gone to plan, and that's all I'll say as we are all familiar with the Tigers situation. But... Buenos Aires' percentage continues to decline, with matches against Dublin and Moscow to come. The Tigers just need to win ONE MORE MATCH and they might not receive the spoon. YOU JUST GOTTA BELIEEVVVEE! You can do it Tigers, just one more win. *Tips Tokyo*

[Ricochet]

YOU JUST GOTTA BELIEEVVVEE! You can do it Tigers, just one more win. *Tips Tokyo*

So evil

[Holz]

Hmm. Not much I can say about this match. If I were to grasp at straws, I'd point out that Buenos Aires' season high of 133 is the same as Dublin's season low of 133... so Buenos Aires just have to go into this match with an attacking mindset of trying to get as many points as possible, and see where that gets them. Dublin will surely rest someone this week in preparation for the blockbuster next week against Mexico City, maybe even Goldstein? Sure you'd probably have to play an OOP ruck, but the Armadillos have to as well. Am I trying to help Dublin for next week? Or am I trying to make them lose this week? I guess that's for the paranoid coach of Dublin to decide. But yeah, the Destroyers are capable of doubling the Dillos score this week, and I reckon they'll come close to achieving that.

still have the Idol to think about.

Goldy wont be rested he is playing for the Jim Stynes medal. I know your sneaky plan. Fyfer is missing this week and doesnt deserve it anyway. Goldy will play.

David Mundy will be rested though. It doesnt affect my starting team too much anyway. Jelly has finally earned the VC back and would be C if not for Goldy.

Birchall Murphy Rance Tmac
Selwood (VC) Boak Thompson Sloane
Goldy (C)
Buddy Martin Roughy Gunston
NDS Walters

Schoenemakers, Bruce, Holman

Rested: David Mundy

[kilbluff1985]

nfi idea how we have won 3 in a row have had less then 20 players playing each week

[Holz]

nfi idea how we have won 3 in a row have had less then 20 players playing each week

thats Dublin all year. Granted my 18-19 are a little bit stronger.

[Nige]

Can you try to be nice to us, Purps? Like even if it kills you?  :P

[Holz]

the only thing i care about this week is PNL beating Mexico in a very low scoring affair.

150 to 145 would be nice.

[Jroo]

They face yet another quality opponent (third one in a row) in the Spetsnaz, who I think might have issues with Cobras seeing as they have never beaten them before.

Hahaha brilliant Purps!

Massive game this week, big two weeks coming up  :)

[Toga]

Beijing Thunder:
D: H.Taylor, C.Hooker, J.Thurlow, T.Varcoe
M: O.Wines (CC), L.Neale (CC), L.Shiels, J.Caddy
R: B.Grundy
F: T.Bell, E.Betts, K.Lambert, J.Stewart
I/C: M.Kreuzer, T.Miller

Emg: M.Weller (mid), S.Mayes (mid/def), C.Dawes (fwd)

Nice write ups as always Purps! Starting to struggle coming into the back end of the season :(

[meow meow]

CHRISTCHURCH SAINTS

B: Jake Lever, Dylan Roberton, Sean Dempster, Liam Picken
M: Sam Mitchell, Luke Shuey, Hamish Hartlett, Tom Scully
R: Aaron Sandilands (R) (VC)
F: Dayne Zorko, Shaun McKernan, Jake Stringer, Tory Dickson
I: Jack Steele, Matthew Boyd (C)

E: Alex Neal-Bullen, Harris Andrews, Kyle Langford

[ossie85]

Dublin will surely rest someone this week in preparation for the blockbuster next week against Mexico City, maybe even Goldstein? Sure you'd probably have to play an OOP ruck, but the Armadillos have to as well. Am I trying to help Dublin for next week?

Sorry Purps... Can't rest a player if you can't field a team in the correct position :) See paragraph 14d of the rules, I'm disappointed in you :P

lol at Homer Simpson Cobras

[Jukes]

D: Vlastuin, Dunn, Docherty, May
M: Ward, Heppell, Armitage, Greenwood
R: Naitanui (cc)
F: Gray (cc), Hogan, Daniher, Moore
U: Sheed (R), Bastinac

Emg: Hombsch, Jenkins, Vickery


dat future GOAT forward line

[Holz]

Dublin will surely rest someone this week in preparation for the blockbuster next week against Mexico City, maybe even Goldstein? Sure you'd probably have to play an OOP ruck, but the Armadillos have to as well. Am I trying to help Dublin for next week?

Sorry Purps... Can't rest a player if you can't field a team in the correct position :) See paragraph 14d of the rules, I'm disappointed in you :P

lol at Homer Simpson Cobras

Purp loves Dublin mentioned the name 11 times in the 9 reviews and was mentioned in 7 of the 9 reviews.

We all know its all about Dublin.

WXV featuring Dublin

[meow meow]

Bryce Gibbs (pectoral)
Will Minson (suspended)
Jamie Elliott (back)
Clay Smith (knee)
Matt Buntine (brain)
Sam Gilbert (quad)
Josh Green (foot)
Ryan Lester (knee)
Nathan Freeman (hamstring)
Toby McLean (shoulder)
Zac Dawson (hand)
Matt Maguire (retired)

No Ben Reid!

[Holz]

Bryce Gibbs (pectoral)
Will Minson (suspended)
Jamie Elliott (back)
Clay Smith (knee)
Matt Buntine (brain)
Sam Gilbert (quad)
Josh Green (foot)
Ryan Lester (knee)
Nathan Freeman (hamstring)
Toby McLean (shoulder)
Zac Dawson (hand)
Matt Maguire (retired)

No Ben Reid!

not much quality there though.

Dublin:
Jobe Watson
Cian Hanley

that basically matches you for quality