The already planning for SC 2016 thread

GCSkiwi · July 31, 2015, 11:40:37 AM

Quote from: Judd Magic on July 30, 2015, 04:58:51 PM
Quote from: MC on July 30, 2015, 08:52:11 AM
Some nice player picks, particularly the injured blokes like Crouch and Libba.

I disagree however with commandments #2 and #8...

#2 - Guns and Rookies
This commandment would have destroyed you this year, and many years in the past. The only reason this strategy was ever employed was when the GCS and GWS teams were fresh into the comp, providing us with reliable rookie-priced players.
Imagine this year you loaded up on 'guns' such as Selwood, Malceski, GAJ, Rocky etc... Season over.

#8 - No trades until Rd 8 if possible
This commandment is also going to flower you. It's of utmost importance that you get your rookies right in those first few rounds before they explode in price. A few corrective trades early helps to establish your cash base so that you can 'trade until your heart's content' after that. Imagine the scenario above where you banked on those premiums who aren't delivering. Do you carry them for half the season before cutting your losses?

Good luck anyway mate

My mate went just guns and rookies and he is ranked in the 400's overall as we speak.

He didn't start with Ablett, Malceski and Rockcliff though. Did start with Selwood however.

I also think if you have picked all the good rookies from the start then there's no need to start trading till about round 7-8 anyways except for a long term injury.

If you pick all the right rookies at the start, you're golden, but that's nigh on impossible to do!

I think I'm midway on the midpricers vs G'n'R idea. There are always midpricers that pay off, but how do you pick them? This year the midpricers getting some discussion were Docherty, Yeo, Newnes, Lumumba, McMillan, Goodes, Geary, NVB, Rich, Wells, Belly, Leuenberger that I remember. How many of those were successful? Now, there were good enough reasons not to pick maybe Belly, Leuey and Goodes, but the rest of them it was pretty much a crapshoot... and if you really wanted to make a value pick to save money then Leuey wasn't a terrible call. Midpricers are great if you pick the right ones and will do a lot to determine your success but they can also really flower you...

Gigantor · July 31, 2015, 11:57:56 AM

G+R still the go for me, I'm currently 642 and it if I had started two less mid pricers I would have been laughing

If I had Danger, Oxley, Goddard instead of Gaz, Goodes, Belly at the start who knows how high my rankings would be

Mid pricers are way too risky, this year there have been a few that have been solid stepping stone type picks where you don't really lose but there has been plenty that have just been terrible.

Imo the only three mid pricers that were really successful are, Picken, Laird and Blicavs and maybe Roberton if you stuck with him after his slow start. I would love to know the starting ownership % of these guys, I bet it was really low.

johnoP · July 31, 2015, 07:55:06 PM

Goldstein.

Drops mike. leaves stage.

(and i don't have him this year and cant bring him in !!!!)

Grazz · August 01, 2015, 10:53:34 PM

Quote from: Gigantor on July 31, 2015, 11:57:56 AM
G+R still the go for me, I'm currently 642 and it if I had started two less mid pricers I would have been laughing

If I had Danger, Oxley, Goddard instead of Gaz, Goodes, Belly at the start who knows how high my rankings would be

Mid pricers are way too risky, this year there have been a few that have been solid stepping stone type picks where you don't really lose but there has been plenty that have just been terrible.

Imo the only three mid pricers that were really successful are, Picken, Laird and Blicavs and maybe Roberton if you stuck with him after his slow start. I would love to know the starting ownership % of these guys, I bet it was really low.

Bugger, Belly would of hurt you for sure, Goodes also. Still ranking well mate but yeh get your point.

ronl · August 08, 2015, 10:08:29 AM

Don't let other coaches select your team. Sure, take advice and be aware what others are doing, but make your own value judgements in areas such as rookie potential, buying and selling, premium selection and mid-pricer potential. Cut down on 'if onlys" and "shoulda dones". In other words, sure, seek advice from other coaches, but then then weigh up their advice against your own research and, most important, gut feeling. I also have made a rule for myself to pay little or no attention to the advice and opinions of television commentators and newspapers journalists. They are often so out of touch it makes my laugh. The only other thing that I try to do is have contingency plans - it's something I picked up in the army - in other words, how I am going to react to certain situations, when and if they present themselves. Always have a plan B, plan C, plan D etc etc. ready to go and, most importantly, adjust and update them on a weekly basis as needed.

honza · August 08, 2015, 11:04:25 AM

Don't spend money on backs. Just don't do it. >:( You can blow a few mill on a backline that will limp to a 90 average, or spend next to nothing on one that will get 85.

My 2016 team:

B: some pickles i saw racing on the maccas window
M: Rocky, Libba
R: Set and forget
F: Gray

enzedder · August 08, 2015, 11:42:34 AM

Def- Shaw,
Mids- GAJ, Rocky
Fwds- Gray

ronl · August 08, 2015, 01:10:02 PM

That's a good start, Enzedder. One of the big decisions next year will probably be whether to open with Goldy or wait a few weeks for his price to drop.

Gigantor · August 08, 2015, 04:54:53 PM

Quote from: ronl on August 08, 2015, 01:10:02 PM
That's a good start, Enzedder. One of the big decisions next year will probably be whether to open with Goldy or wait a few weeks for his price to drop.

What makes you think he will drop? No reason why he couldn't come out and hit 130s consistently.

GCSkiwi · August 10, 2015, 07:00:10 PM

Quote from: Gigantor on August 08, 2015, 04:54:53 PM
Quote from: ronl on August 08, 2015, 01:10:02 PM
That's a good start, Enzedder. One of the big decisions next year will probably be whether to open with Goldy or wait a few weeks for his price to drop.

What makes you think he will drop? No reason why he couldn't come out and hit 130s consistently.

Yep, and that 44 against freo is a pretty big outlier, he's averaging 145 without that :o

I think other guns will be around that drop a bit in value to make picking Goldy at the start viable - GAJ might be priced around 550 from an avg of 115 with an injury discount... Not quite as good as Sandi being 300k last year but still...

enzedder · August 10, 2015, 07:33:20 PM

Quote from: GCSkiwi on August 10, 2015, 07:00:10 PM
Quote from: Gigantor on August 08, 2015, 04:54:53 PM
Quote from: ronl on August 08, 2015, 01:10:02 PM
That's a good start, Enzedder. One of the big decisions next year will probably be whether to open with Goldy or wait a few weeks for his price to drop.

What makes you think he will drop? No reason why he couldn't come out and hit 130s consistently.

Yep, and that 44 against freo is a pretty big outlier, he's averaging 145 without that :o

I think other guns will be around that drop a bit in value to make picking Goldy at the start viable - GAJ might be priced around 550 from an avg of 115 with an injury discount... Not quite as good as Sandi being 300k last year but still...

Some guns will be cheap for sure... Rocky and GAJ in particular. Goldy has been GAJ like this year and is a must have... I can see everyone saying he's too expensive and they can't fit him or it robs too much elsewhere then come R1 everyone decides to get him. The four I mentioned are first picked/ easy haves. Goldy should be locked in but we'll all have to wait till next year to see how we'll do it. Maybe a rookie ruck such as St.Kilda's Holmes who hasn't played but could feature R1 might be an option.

Grazz · August 10, 2015, 07:59:01 PM

Quote from: enzedder on August 10, 2015, 07:33:20 PM
Quote from: GCSkiwi on August 10, 2015, 07:00:10 PM
Quote from: Gigantor on August 08, 2015, 04:54:53 PM
Quote from: ronl on August 08, 2015, 01:10:02 PM
That's a good start, Enzedder. One of the big decisions next year will probably be whether to open with Goldy or wait a few weeks for his price to drop.

What makes you think he will drop? No reason why he couldn't come out and hit 130s consistently.

Yep, and that 44 against freo is a pretty big outlier, he's averaging 145 without that :o

I think other guns will be around that drop a bit in value to make picking Goldy at the start viable - GAJ might be priced around 550 from an avg of 115 with an injury discount... Not quite as good as Sandi being 300k last year but still...
Some guns will be cheap for sure... Rocky and GAJ in particular. Goldy has been GAJ like this year and is a must have... I can see everyone saying he's too expensive and they can't fit him or it robs too much elsewhere then come R1 everyone decides to get him. The four I mentioned are first picked/ easy haves. Goldy should be locked in but we'll all have to wait till next year to see how we'll do it. Maybe a rookie ruck such as St.Kilda's Holmes who hasn't played but could feature R1 might be an option.

Will be doing all I can to start Goldy in 2016 but yeh as you say we have no idea how much that extra cash will hurt us by doing it. If you say a trade is worth 100k starting him may not be as expensive as trading out your cheaper starting ruck to grab him. Circumstance and time will dictate the right answer.

quinny88 · August 11, 2015, 05:37:26 PM

People underestimate getting the guns right which IMO is more important than the odd failed mid priced player or rookie.
My season was derailed purely from a few moves.

Starting Ablett over Fyfe despite Abelett having a cloud over him.
Starting Selwood over Priddis despite it hurting my bye structure.
Starting Maric over Goldy to save like 40k
Starting Hibberd over anyone that's not fat and lazy.
Starting Griffen over Danger or Steven who I constantly changed my mind on

These are mostly just unlucky moves but I get those right and I'm sitting in the top 500 rather than 14k.
You can add to that the people that started Rocky, Sloane etc that were unlucky with injury.

Next year is too far away to determine what I'll do but the only position I know I'll have locked is the midfield with
Ablett, Fyfe, Pendles, Rocky, Libba. The rest of the field I'll be very careful with to hopefully get it right

Holz · August 11, 2015, 05:40:43 PM

nobody is a bigger fan of goldy than me on this site. However im not paying that much for him. I only would if he had season of going 125+.

Ill use my cash elsewhere and get him in before the byes.

quinny88 · August 11, 2015, 05:45:54 PM

Quote from: Holz on August 11, 2015, 05:40:43 PM
nobody is a bigger fan of goldy than me on this site. However im not paying that much for him. I only would if he had season of going 125+.

Ill use my cash elsewhere and get him in before the byes.

This. Plus the fact that there should be a few good options around if players move.
Leuey moving to somewhere like Essendon to be the sole ruck would make him hard to ignore and would also make Stef Martin hard to ignore at Brissie as a sole ruckman.
A full pre season into kroooz makes him very tempting as well. A left of field one like Currie if he changes club for more opportunity would be handy too