LaHug's Captains 2015 - Round 17

[LaHug]

I'll be shaving off my precious beard on July 31st for Cancer Council Victoria. Please consider donating generously: http://vic.cancercouncilfundraising.org.au/WilliamHuggett



5 years. 5 long years I've been doing this and all I've got out of it is a HoF induction, lots of appreciation, some satisfaction, and a bit of fun. Actually, that's not half bad! Now if only someone would pay me... ;)

I'm back again! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

GAJ is back and Goldy is on fire. Which one of them will be number one? Or will it be someone else?! Read on! (Or don't... it's Goldstein.)

The facts:

Hodge
Last 3: 133, 148, 120 (134 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 77, 67, 86 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 113, 103, 104 (107 avg)

Treloar
Last 3: 78, 109, 92 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 95, 101, 74 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 109, 131, 120 (120 avg)

Ward
Last 3: 138, 107, 82 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 111, 107, 104 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 107, 86, 149 (114 avg)

Selwood
Last 3: 94, 75, 66 (78 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 140, 132, 62 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 140, 132 (91 avg)

Thompson
Last 3: 126, 56, 113 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 65, 76, 70 (70 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 126, 97, 116 (113 avg)

Dangerfield
Last 3: 90, 142, 86 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 88, 93, 116 (99 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 90, 105, 147 (114 avg)

Ablett
Last 3: 176, 119, 119 (138 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 98, 109, 110 (106 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 98 (98 avg)

Martin
Last 3: 98, 65, 132 (98 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 142, 111, 113 (122 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 65, 132, 150 (116 avg)

Fyfe
Last 3: 76, 59, 103 (79 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 97, 110, 87 (98 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 110, 77 (100 avg)

Heppell
Last 3: 58, 94, 124 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 74, 87, 98 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 58, 124, 111 (98 avg)

Ebert
Last 3: 97, 75, 77 (83 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 87, 135, 104 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 111, 55, 91 (86 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 111, 128, 90 (110 avg)
Last 3 against North: 122, 134, 117 (124 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 128, 90, 90 (103 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 77, 125, 133 (112 avg)
Last 3 against North: 131, 48, 129 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 125, 107, 152 (128 avg)

Goldstein
Last 3: 175, 140, 135 (150 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 153, 100, 91 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 100, 72, 91 (88 avg)

Boyd
Last 3: 49, 111, 143 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 112, 94, 89 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 143, 108, 91 (114 avg)

Macrae
Last 3: 105, 143, 109 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 117, 85 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 109, 117, 120 (115 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 102, 112, 152 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 114, 133, 133 (127 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 102, 98, 114 (105 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 91, 132, 85 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 103, 137, 117 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 82, 103 (92 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 128, 107, 106 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 87, 114, 128 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 128, 94, 84 (102 avg)

Armitage
Last 3: 110, 84, 140 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 75, 61, 83 (73 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 143, 94, 94 (110 avg)

Steven
Last 3: 101, 136, 142 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 93, 90, 81 (88 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 138, 72, 108 (106 avg)

Montagna
Last 3: 98, 124, 120 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 140, 146, 106 (131 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 80, 151, 78 (103 avg)

Priddis
Last 3: 82, 136, 90 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 118, 116, 111 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 136, 99, 78 (104 avg)

Gaff
Last 3: 114, 152, 101 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 100, 99, 94 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 152, 102, 113 (122 avg)

Hannebery
Last 3: 90, 127, 146 (121 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 131, 116, 66 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 102, 131, 116 (116 avg)

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 108, 132, 151 (130 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 96, 100, 87 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 96, 94, 100 (97 avg)

The thoughts:

Hodge
Last week, we had a guy in amazing form come up against a team with poor history (you know... that Goldy bloke) and he did alright. Carlton could tag Hodge but his form is crazy and Freo had 6 tons on the Blues last week. Prediction - 125

Treloar
Very disappointing against the Suns last week and only decent against Geelong. Does love playing at home but I wouldn't back him. Prediction - 100

Ward
Ward's had his inconsistencies this year (5 games under 90) but loves it against the Cats. The Cats only gave up three tons last week but a 132 to Dahlhaus means Ward has a chance. Prediction - 115

Selwood
I've been saying this for too long now but surely Selwood bounces back this week. Loves it against the Giants and, importantly, GWS gave up three tons to a Suns midfield that's not too deep (with GAJ's 176 in there!). One last chance if you still haven't traded him out. Prediction - 110

Thompson
Gold Coast gave up three scores above 120 last week but I don't think Thompson can match that. He's weirdly horrible against the Suns so I'd stay away. I actually think Rory Sloane might top score in that game if he passes fitness tests and plays. Prediction - 90

Dangerfield
Someone has to take those points that the Suns are giving up but Danger also isn't great against them. Some big scores this year but some low ones too make him too risky, even though my gut says yes. Prediction - 110

Ablett
Let's get the cons out of the way first. Ablett has steadily declined in scoring against the Crows since he used to dominate against them. From 2011 to last year, he went: 156, 142, 136, 110, 109, 98. Now that we've covered that... 176 last week! 138 average since returning! Port managed four tons last week and they're crap! Prediction - 125

Martin
Loves the Dockers and (usually) plays well at the MCG. Still, you'd be mad to pick him in recent form. Prediction - 110

Fyfe
Fyfe wasn't in crap form when he only managed 97 against the Tigers earlier this year (without a tag, mind you). Richmond are too hard to score against and Fyfe's not playing well. Prediction - 85 (watch him single-handedly beat my Tigers now that I've said this :()

Heppell
In crap form and against a team he doesn't like... yuck. Prediction - 85

Ebert
The Bombers have given up some decent scores in recent weeks and Ebert's not bad against them. One last hurrah? I wouldn't count on it as his second-half-of-season blues have returned. Prediction - 90

Rockliff
North tagged Heppell to 58 last week and I'm giving myself permission to change this if Beams (who will get the tag) ends up being out with his shoulder trouble. Anyway, assuming the tag goes to Beamer, it leaves Rocky to do what Stanton did (122) but with a chance for a few more possies and tackles, and maybe a goal. Rocky loves playing North and at home. Prediction - 130

Beams
Does love North and does love the Gabba but the shoulder and a tag are very concerning. Happy to be proven wrong but think he'll struggle this week. Prediction - 100

Goldstein
What do you get when you take a guy averaging 150 over his last three and put him up against a team he scored 153 on earlier this year? Prediction - 150

Boyd
If you ignore that 49, everything else looks pretty good. I back him not to disappoint again but I wouldn't risk the captaincy. Prediction - 110

Macrae
There is no reason his 6 tons in a row doesn't become 7 this week. Good history against the Pies, great form, loves Etihad, and the Pies aren't too restrictive. Prediction - 115

Pendlebury
Pendles loves playing the Dogs and is in good form. Etihad is the biggest concern but it's not hugely significant. Plus, the Doggies gave up 5 scores over 120 last week (which is pretty flowered). Prediction - 130

Swan
Not even considering him at Etihad. Does love the Doggies though. Prediction - 110

Sidebottom
Steele is back in form and might as well take advantage of the Bulldogs and their generosity. Prediction - 120

Armitage
If you're one of the two tagged by the Dees (which Armitage will be this week with Vince certain to go to him), you're in trouble. Beams had 77 (albeit with a sore shoulder) and Rocky only managed 111 because of 17 tackles! He was held to 75 against them earlier this year so don't touch. Prediction - 85

Steven
It's out of Steven and Montagna to cop the other tag but it'll probably be Jack. Steven copped Viney earlier this year so I wouldn't captain him. Only 93 in that game... Prediction - 90

Montagna
Let's assume he avoids the tag again. 140 earlier this year, 146 in 2013 (at the MCG). Could be very nice for Montagna owners. Prediction - 125

Priddis
Too up and down to risk but does love it against the Swans... Prediction - 110

Gaff
Fantastic form in general and at home. The Swans actually allowed 5 tons last week but it did take an 89 point loss. Should be good. Prediction - 115

Hannebery
Certain to bounce back this week after a disappointing 90 (which isn't even that awful, considering his team's performance). Loves the Eagles, great in Perth, and average 121 over his last 3 even with the 90. Prediction - 115

J.P. Kennedy
Kennedy's in great form but there's very little excitement in his numbers against the Eagles or in the West. West Coast gave up tons to the Pies last week but most were much smaller than expected. Prediction - 105

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Sammy Mitchell disappointed last week but, hey, that's why it's a roughie. Who's in this week? In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Sloane
Last 3: 68, 109, 82 (86 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 67, 113, 67 (82 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 109, 67, 130 (102 avg)

Illogical gut feelings that Sloane will dominate if he plays this week. Suns give up lots of points and Sloane will take full advantage of that. Does anyone have the guts though?? Mentally Deranged Prediction - 135

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Last week, my spud saved his bum late in the game. Fyfe and Heppell made their cases this week but this guy has fallen much further from grace... Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Lewis
Last 3: 98, 108, 125 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 76, 57, 103 (79 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 80, 117, 90 (96 avg)

Not too long ago, this guy was our perma captain. He's had his struggles and he looked like he was back... then he limped to 90 against the Swans (in a massive victory). Lewis is here because I think he's getting tagged this week (Carrazzo kept him to 76 last time they matched up). Fyfe was held to 76 by White's tag last week. Basically, whoever tags Lewis, he's in trouble. Spudiction - 75

The verdict:
1.   Goldstein (150)
2.   Rockliff (130)
3.   Pendlebury (130)
4.   Ablett (125)
5.   Hodge (125)


Requests:

Hartlett - Requested by LF
Last 3: 108, 53, 91 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 91, 83, 69 (81 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 93, 117, 80 (97 avg)

Usually good for a 90 odd but you shouldn't consider him a captain option. 108 was nice last week but nothing says he'll match that this week, let alone top it. Prediction - 90

[Thunderbolts]

Thumbs up with this great read  8)

Gotta stay on the Goldy train at the moment.

[Ricochet]

Gotta stay on the Goldy train at the moment.

[The_Captain]

Having Jacobs and MArtin as my rucks. Cant go goldy. But looking to Rocky or Ablett this week!

[T Dog]

Too early to be looking at Bartel LaHug?

[LF]

If you get a chance could you do Hartlett please Huggy thank you

[pommyadam]

worth saying that Suns are conceding around 50 less ppg since the byes, so they're not as leaky as they were

Too early to be looking at Bartel LaHug?

Bartel's had a pair of 84s at Showgrounds, and his only other score (of 114) against GWS was at Kardinia
Not a C option, I'd guess at 89-95 though

my C goes to Pendless this week, hopefully he fires

[Levi434]

Going Gaz  8)

[LaHug]

Too early to be looking at Bartel LaHug?

pommy's summary's a good one so I'll leave it at that. But, seriously, you shouldn't be considering Bartel as captain at all even if he has two solid scores in a row. I think those scores around 120 are his absolute ceiling.

If you get a chance could you do Hartlett please Huggy thank you

Hartlett
Last 3: 108, 53, 91 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 91, 83, 69 (81 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 93, 117, 80 (97 avg)

Usually good for a 90 odd but you shouldn't consider him a captain option. 108 was nice last week but nothing says he'll match that this week, let alone top it. Prediction - 90

[LF]

Cheers Huggy
Looks like it's Gray or risk it and go Sloaney for Euros

[LaHug]

Cheers Huggy
Looks like it's Gray or risk it and go Sloaney for Euros

Go Sloaney. For glory ;)

[pommyadam]

Cheers Huggy
Looks like it's Gray or risk it and go Sloaney for Euros

Go Sloaney. For glory ;)

#NegativeNancy

Sloane's first 67 was against a 'leakier' GC side earlier this year, and that panned out real well

[LaHug]

Cheers Huggy
Looks like it's Gray or risk it and go Sloaney for Euros

Go Sloaney. For glory ;)

#NegativeNancy

Sloane's first 67 was against a 'leakier' GC side earlier this year, and that panned out real well

Yeah but irrational gut feeling!!! But yeah... good point.

[TomK]

Cheers Huggy
Looks like it's Gray or risk it and go Sloaney for Euros

Go Sloaney. For glory ;)

#NegativeNancy

Sloane's first 67 was against a 'leakier' GC side earlier this year, and that panned out real well

Yeah but irrational gut feeling!!! But yeah... good point.

He was subbed out that game though

[Senior]

If you've got time could you do Wines mate, cheers  :)