Get Ablett or get rid of Smith?

[Jelemas10]

DEF: Shaw, Hodge, Houli, Simpson, Hibberd SMITH (Hamling/Mckenzie)
MIDS: Fyfe, Pendles, Priddis, Danger, Kennedy, Rockliff, Selwood, Treloar (Steele/Boston/Glenn)

Looking for opinions on trades this week, Smith is my weak link ATM but can Ablett really be ignored?
Also I dont have the money to do Selwood to Ablett so Treloar is the trade out only due financial reasons.
Not just getting rid of him for no reason.

Smith and Ablett ave - 206.43 (gives me a CAPT option, relies on Smith improving)
Macdonald and Treloar ave -204.8 (Gives more consistency, relies on Macdonld keeping it up)

FWDS/RUCKS are not a concern.

[GCSkiwi]

Rucks are a concern ;)

If you have Goldy, I would definitely go Smith to McDonald. Fyfe/Goldy serve as a worthy enough VC/C loophole combo most weeks, and you have firepower elsewhere on weeks that won't work. However if you don't have Goldy, then I would be getting Ablett for loophole value.

Points wise they're probably similar outcomes, Smith averaging 70, McDonald 100 so +30 ppg there, Treloar 105 Ablett 135 so +30ppg there too HOWEVER I don't really expect GAJ to maintain a 135 average for these last few rounds, more like 125-130 So you may actually stand to gain more points from Smith to McDonald anyway...

[Jelemas10]

Yeah I certainly have Goldy.

and yeah i worked out the averages were similar so my question was do I go Ablett and rely on Smith improving or is Smith finished and should I back in Macdonald.

[GCSkiwi]

I don't think this is a trade to speculate on potential improvements. Out of Ablett, Treloar, McDonald and Smith if anyone is going to improve I would say it's Smith, but I don't think that will happen in any case. I would be assuming similar outputs from Smith, Treloar and McDonald, and predict a small drop from Ablett. And based on that I think your best chance of gaining ground is Smith to McDonald. However, It's certainly not impossible for GAJ to maintain a 135 average, and not impossible for Smith to score 90+. So if you're willing to take the risk, there's certainly more potential payoff down that road - I just think the chances are unlikely.

[Bully]

I don't think this is a trade to speculate on potential improvements. Out of Ablett, Treloar, McDonald and Smith if anyone is going to improve I would say it's Smith, but I don't think that will happen in any case. I would be assuming similar outputs from Smith, Treloar and McDonald, and predict a small drop from Ablett. And based on that I think your best chance of gaining ground is Smith to McDonald. However, It's certainly not impossible for GAJ to maintain a 135 average, and not impossible for Smith to score 90+. So if you're willing to take the risk, there's certainly more potential payoff down that road - I just think the chances are unlikely.

Gaz X2, that must always be considered in these discussions. The other point about Tmac is he is spending more time in the forward line, still unsure how this will effect his output in the run home.

[H1bb3i2d]

Had $200k and got Gaz last week. Still stuck with Smith and HL. NO RAGRETS!

[GCSkiwi]

I don't think this is a trade to speculate on potential improvements. Out of Ablett, Treloar, McDonald and Smith if anyone is going to improve I would say it's Smith, but I don't think that will happen in any case. I would be assuming similar outputs from Smith, Treloar and McDonald, and predict a small drop from Ablett. And based on that I think your best chance of gaining ground is Smith to McDonald. However, It's certainly not impossible for GAJ to maintain a 135 average, and not impossible for Smith to score 90+. So if you're willing to take the risk, there's certainly more potential payoff down that road - I just think the chances are unlikely.

Gaz X2, that must always be considered in these discussions. The other point about Tmac is he is spending more time in the forward line, still unsure how this will effect his output in the run home.

I don't think you really consider Gaz x2, again it comes back to what other captain option there are. Goldy and Fyfe are both averaging around what I expect Gaz to average, and even if he keeps up 135 then you only win the difference, not 2x the difference. It gives another captain option which I've considered in my first reply, but you've still only got 1 VC and 1 C...

TMac still has a 5 round average of 90 with his shocker against Geelong, I still reckon he's a safe enough bet.

[Bully]

I don't think this is a trade to speculate on potential improvements. Out of Ablett, Treloar, McDonald and Smith if anyone is going to improve I would say it's Smith, but I don't think that will happen in any case. I would be assuming similar outputs from Smith, Treloar and McDonald, and predict a small drop from Ablett. And based on that I think your best chance of gaining ground is Smith to McDonald. However, It's certainly not impossible for GAJ to maintain a 135 average, and not impossible for Smith to score 90+. So if you're willing to take the risk, there's certainly more potential payoff down that road - I just think the chances are unlikely.

Gaz X2, that must always be considered in these discussions. The other point about Tmac is he is spending more time in the forward line, still unsure how this will effect his output in the run home.

I don't think you really consider Gaz x2, again it comes back to what other captain option there are. Goldy and Fyfe are both averaging around what I expect Gaz to average, and even if he keeps up 135 then you only win the difference, not 2x the difference. It gives another captain option which I've considered in my first reply, but you've still only got 1 VC and 1 C...

TMac still has a 5 round average of 90 with his shocker against Geelong, I still reckon he's a safe enough bet.

Fyfe has dropped off, doesn't do well in the wet either, no longer a safe option. Goldy has been on fire but it's always better to have 2 options up the sleeve. Gaz could easily go on and do a Rocky 2014 and pull in some monster scores. He has a full tank, he's hungry and he's intent on salvaging some respectability for the Suns. This one is a no brainer I think. There's also the issue of Treloar's contract negotiations, apparently he will be a Magpie so don't expect any favours to be done if GWS drop out of the finals race. 

[GCSkiwi]

I don't think this is a trade to speculate on potential improvements. Out of Ablett, Treloar, McDonald and Smith if anyone is going to improve I would say it's Smith, but I don't think that will happen in any case. I would be assuming similar outputs from Smith, Treloar and McDonald, and predict a small drop from Ablett. And based on that I think your best chance of gaining ground is Smith to McDonald. However, It's certainly not impossible for GAJ to maintain a 135 average, and not impossible for Smith to score 90+. So if you're willing to take the risk, there's certainly more potential payoff down that road - I just think the chances are unlikely.

Gaz X2, that must always be considered in these discussions. The other point about Tmac is he is spending more time in the forward line, still unsure how this will effect his output in the run home.

I don't think you really consider Gaz x2, again it comes back to what other captain option there are. Goldy and Fyfe are both averaging around what I expect Gaz to average, and even if he keeps up 135 then you only win the difference, not 2x the difference. It gives another captain option which I've considered in my first reply, but you've still only got 1 VC and 1 C...

TMac still has a 5 round average of 90 with his shocker against Geelong, I still reckon he's a safe enough bet.

Fyfe has dropped off, doesn't do well in the wet either, no longer a safe option. Goldy has been on fire but it's always better to have 2 options up the sleeve. Gaz could easily go on and do a Rocky 2014 and pull in some monster scores. He has a full tank, he's hungry and he's intent on salvaging some respectability for the Suns. This one is a no brainer I think. There's also the issue of Treloar's contract negotiations, apparently he will be a Magpie so don't expect any favours to be done if GWS drop out of the finals race.

Yeah fair enough. I think the outcomes are fairly even points wise because the ground you gain from Gaz over Treloar is largely/entirely eaten up by Smith's current capacity to be terrible :P

Had $200k and got Gaz last week. Still stuck with Smith and HL. NO RAGRETS!

Haha I imagine not. Still, not gonna get 189 every week ;)
PS is your avatar the Mark Richardson death cramp moment? That was hilarious - if it's not, definitely look that up on youtube, your avatar made me think of it and I laughed.

Cool story bro :P

[Bluesalltheway]

Mcdonald is moving into a forward role by the looks of it which could hurt his scoring... I think it would put you behind the 8 ball too much not to have Ablett

[jcuz001]

get ablett, he will burn you every week you do not have him.

[ronl]

For those with Hogan still lurking around their forward line Mcdonald moving down there is not great news.