LaHug's Captains 2015 - Round 8

[LaHug]

5 years. 5 long years I've been doing this and all I've got out of it is a HoF induction, lots of appreciation, some satisfaction, and a bit of fun. Actually, that's not half bad! Now if only someone would pay me... ;)

I'm back again! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

What's this?!? A LaHug's Captains posted before Thurday night?? Look who's somewhat organised this week ;)

The facts:

Selwood
Last 3: 80, 117, 79 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 104, 79, 66 (83 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 104, 137, 133 (125 avg)

Johnson
Last 3: 92, 117, 67 (92 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 77, 92, 60 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 67, 96, 77 (80 avg)

Armitage
Last 3: 108, 144, 129 (127 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 77, 74, 113 (88 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 144, 129, 89 (121 avg)

Steven
Last 3: 101, 142, 124 (122 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 86, 82, 78 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 142, 124, 99 (122 avg)

Priddis
Last 3: 155, 105, 109 (123 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 101, 102, 103 (102 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 73, 98, 101 (91 avg)

Treloar
Last 3: 133, 108, 63 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 109, 68, 94 (90 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 108, 93, 95 (99 avg)

Thompson
Last 3: 117, 65, 102 (95 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 69, 131, 112 (104 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 69, 112, 110 (97 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3: 77, 121, 135 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 111, 109, 59 (93 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 111, 109, 124 (115 avg)

Sidebottom
Last 3: 88 (88 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 99, 99, 68 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 99, 99, 94 (97 avg)

Lewis
Last 3: 117, 130, 135 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 139, 119, 90 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 119, 156, 139 (138 avg)

I. Smith
Last 3: 123, 125, 151 (133 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 61, 87, 82 (77 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 74, 83, 100 (86 avg)

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 121, 136, 100 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 100, 101, 139 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 136, 100, 101 (112 avg)

Parker
Last 3: 166, 120, 81 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 56, 77, 121 (85 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 120, 77, 102 (100 avg)

Fyfe
Last 3: 109, 101, 113 (108 avg)
Last 3 against North: 119, 112, 88 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 101, 115, 102 (106 avg)

Barlow
Last 3: 79, 92, 110 (94 avg)
Last 3 against North: 124, 85, 88 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 92, 44, 55 (64 avg)

Mundy
Last 3: 67, 114, 133 (105 avg)
Last 3 against North: 123, 125, 93 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 114, 97, 102 (104 avg)

Heppell
Last 3: 125, 81, 86 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 127, 94, 137 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 125, 86, 120 (110 avg)

Watson
Last 3: 102, 108, 95 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 149, 119, 134 (134 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 102, 95, 84 (94 avg)

Rockliff
Last 3: 90, 95, 0 (62 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 147, 83, 73 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 95, 110, 102 (102 avg)

Beams
Last 3: 123, 91, 119 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 98, 136, 117 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 91, 53, 126 (90 avg)

Gray
Last 3: 115, 134, 102 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 75, 76, 71 (74 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 134, 102, 97 (111 avg)

The thoughts:

Selwood
Carlton suck but that doesn't actually mean they're bleeding points. Selwood's recent form and history against the Blues are less than convincing and it's only his Etihad record that makes me confident of a small but respectable ton. Prediction - 105

Johnson
I wouldn't... Prediction - 80

Armitage
His form against the Eagles leaves much to desire but he's still one of the best fantasy scorers right now. If the FF "By Quarter" scores are reliable, it was only a 12 point fourth quarter that let him down. I'd expect another solid ton. Prediction - 115

Steven
No better than his St Kilda team mate against the Eagles but also in great form. Could do better but could do worse. Prediction - 105

Priddis
Last week was huge for Priddis in a convincing win for the Eagles. This week, his team will demolish the Saints who, despite exceeding expectations, won't stand up without their captain and playing an in-form Eagles team. Expect Priddis to take full advantage of this like he did last week. Prediction - 125

Treloar
A handy ton against the Crows last year and a really good game last week are convincing me that Treloar will go well again this week. Prediction - 110

Thompson
Prior to that 69, Scotty Thompson's record against the Giants was fantastic. However, GWS are no longer the pushovers they once were. Still, Thompson's form has been great this year and I back him in for a good one. Prediction - 110

Pendlebury
Is Pendles injured or just warn out? Last week's game gives me concern. Otherwise, I'd back him in for an easy ton against the Suns. Be wary. Prediction - 110

Sidebottom
There's a chance he's back this week but his record against the Suns isn't convincing enough to risk trading him in, let alone captaining him. Prediction - 100

Lewis
He's back and his record against the Swans is delicious. Lock him in! Prediction - 130

I. Smith
For me, form usually trumps history, but Smith's history this week is horrid. His only two sub-100 scores this season are his only two games at the MCG. But, what's worse is his record against the Swan. 0 tons from 8 games! Stay away! Prediction - 85

J.P. Kennedy
In three games against the Hawks last year, Kennedy got three tons. One was big when the Swans won, the others were smaller in losses. Will the Swans win? Prediction - 115

Parker
Look at those last two games! Unfortunately, Parker was horrid in his team's two losses to the Hawks last year. He racked it up in the win though. Which Sydney side we get might decide which Parker we get too. Prediction - 105

Fyfe
Keeps getting those tons and definitely good against the Roos. Prediction - 115

Barlow
I captained him last week and have decided that he's not getting the C again until he scores at least 5 straight tons. Do not touch. Prediction - 90

Mundy
Anyone got an explanation for what happened last week? That was a particularly poor showing from Mundy, who has been fantastic this year. History against North is pretty delicious so expect him to bounce back. Prediction - 120

Heppell
Despite last week's win, Brisbane are still bottom dwellers and Heppell will likely take full advantage of that. Bouncing back last week, expect good scores to continue. Prediction - 120

Watson
Want a POD? Here's your guy. He absolutely LOVES playing the Lions and should be huge in a likely big win. Prediction - 130

Rockliff
I don't expect Rocky will continue to get tagged, particularly with how poorly it worked for the Power, and his almost-70-point second half last week showed that even tags don't matter. Rocky is back this week. Mark my words. Prediction - 120

Beams
Pretty decent against the Bombers but scarily inconsistent so far this year. I couldn't back him because of the risk but you could definitely do a lot worse. Prediction - 110

Gray
Fantastic form in his last three and at home but he's 0/8 against the Tigers for his career. I think form will come through with the Power likely to bounce back after last week's disaster. Probably too risky though. Prediction - 115

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

What is fast becoming my favourite (and definitely least accurate) segment. I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Swan
Last 3: 117, 88, 104 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 82, 130, 118 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 82, 130, 118 (110 avg)

Does this count as cheating? Not too long ago, he was a permacaptain. In fact, this season he's been in my top 5. However, nobody in their right mind would captain him these days until he shows consistency. Against the Suns, however, he has the history to tempt you. Plus, his current form isn't too bad either. When the Pies demolish the Suns this week (which they will), Swan will be the guy with 35+ disposals, 4 goals, and as many marks as he pleases. Wild Prediction - 140

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

Because new segments are fun (and really don't require much extra effort), I'm adding this new segment from this week. Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

Goldstein
Last 3: 70, 71, 88 (76 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 62, 86, 24 (57 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 49, 62, 86 (66 avg)

As if three mediocre scores in a row isn't enough, Goldstein now comes up against the Dockers, his second least favourite team to play (averaging a dismal 68) and a team he's had 0 tons against in 8 tries. To top it off, Subiaco's his third least favourite ground (averaging 68 there) and he's 0/7 there with tons. Oh dear... Spud Prediction - 68

The verdict:
1.   Lewis (130)
2.   Watson (130)
3.   Priddis (125)
4.   Heppell (120)
5.   Mundy (120)

[pommyadam]

As if three mediocre scores in a row isn't enough, Goldstein now comes up against the Dockers, his second least favourite team to play (averaging a dismal 68) and a team he's had 0 tons against in 8 tries. To top it off, Subiaco's his third least favourite ground (averaging 68 there) and he's 0/7 there with tons. Oh dear... Spud Prediction - 68

Got to think that the 2 best ruckman in the league (Cox and Sandi) might have had something to do with that

Personally have a decision to make between Pendles, Priddis and Lewis
ugggh

Pendles cause GC, but Collingwood haven't been convincing (and it is away)
Lewis cause 130+ average, but has missed 2 games (and had to junk quite severly vs North to get to 110+)
Priddis cause 155 in his last game (and WC are flat-trackers, which makes StKilda ripe for the picking)

[LaHug]

As if three mediocre scores in a row isn't enough, Goldstein now comes up against the Dockers, his second least favourite team to play (averaging a dismal 68) and a team he's had 0 tons against in 8 tries. To top it off, Subiaco's his third least favourite ground (averaging 68 there) and he's 0/7 there with tons. Oh dear... Spud Prediction - 68

Got to think that the 2 best ruckman in the league (Cox and Sandi) might have had something to do with that

Oh, definitely, but he's coming up against one of them again this week.

[jvalles69]

I think I'll be backing Priddis again wit Parker VC.

[Ricochet]

flower I'm tempted to go Rocky. But will probably just go Swannie I think

[kilbluff1985]

i'm interested in S Martin vs Belly think he will go huge

[Ricochet]

i'm interested in S Martin vs Belly think he will go huge

I'd be careful. Goldy didn't do great last weekend

In fact Goldy's score was the highest of any ruckman against Essendon since Grundy in round 4

But in saying that, the Bombers haven't faced many fantasy quality ruckman this year

[LaHug]

i'm interested in S Martin vs Belly think he will go huge

Not gonna touch a ruckman again this season after going Goldy when he was dominating. Not doing requests this week because work is destroying me but he hasn't played the Bombers since 2011 (scored 97) and I don't even think he was a ruck then. So the numbers wouldn't help a decision anyway. Basically, he should score well based on form but I just wouldn't go there.

[Jalapeno]

Awesome work again huggy :-)

Why no Ebert though?

I am thinking he will go big this week :-/ 8)

[LaHug]

Awesome work again huggy :-)

Why no Ebert though?

I am thinking he will go big this week :-/ 8)

Ebert
Last 3: 64, 100, 139 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 92, 55, 87 (78 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 100, 139, 81 (107 avg)

Don't like his scores against Richmond

[Money]

Think I'm going to lock and load with Pendles! Should go large against Gold Coast!

[Jalapeno]

Awesome work again huggy :-)

Why no Ebert though?

I am thinking he will go big this week :-/ 8)

Ebert
Last 3: 64, 100, 139 (101 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 92, 55, 87 (78 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 100, 139, 81 (107 avg)

Don't like his scores against Richmond

Thanks mate  ;D

I think ill stick with either Armitage or Swanny

[RoughRed]

Think I'm going to lock and load with Pendles! Should go large against Gold Coast!

I would like to think so but he does look a little sore  :-\

[TomK]

Armitage for me this week.

[Thunderbolts]

Sticking with Lewis for me