NBA Season 2015/16

[Jay]

No one is saying they are going to be good next year, this year was supposed to be the season where they started to get some chemistry together much like the T-Wolves are doing this season. That has been pushed until next year because of Embiid/Saric and that is when I would expect to see improvement in the group as a collective. Once they get the core of young guys they can then look at adding FA's or trading some of these assets for a superstar the same way Hinkie orchestrated the Harden trade.

You say adding FA's, but who is actually going to want to go there? The time for that would have been this past off-season where having room for a max salary was rare. In a year or two when Philly will be wanting to sign FAs, there'll be team's who can offer just as much money, and offer a better basketball environment. I also think the cheap way that they treat their second round picks, could put some players off of wanting to go there - if they aren't already turned off by all the losing.

What I can't work out is why Philly didn't come out and offer a max to a guy like Jimmy Butler on day 1 of free agency? That was the time to sign guys on contracts that will end up being undervalued, yet they've let that pass and now will be paying full price - and that's if they somehow convince someone to want to go there in the first place.

The trade route is their most likely path to success now if they don't score a generational talent in the draft. But Embiid would hold little trade value around the league now, and Saric I'd be surprised if team's thought of him as a great asset. So what's their trade package they'll be dangling out there in search for a disgruntled superstar? Okafor/Noel + the Lakers pick? It's a nice package, but I struggle to see which team's would actually want to do something like that. Cousins is the obvious guy to look at, but if they wanted to trade him, they'd have done it by now. What other stars realistically have a chance of becoming available? Point is, I think the James Harden trade is one in a million - the idiotic logic behind OKC doing that isn't likely to be replicated anytime soon. You then look at the other 'stars' who have been moved in trades.. Off the top of my head.. Dwight, Melo, D-Will and CP3 are the obvious ones. How many of them turned out well? Probably only CP3..

Philly at this point are just crossing their fingers and hoping something falls into their laps, meanwhile team's that started to rebuild at the same time as they did are actually out there winning games and building themselves into an attractive destination. Time will tell what works I guess, but it's an enjoyable debate in the mean-time as it's a strategy which we haven't really seen in the NBA before.

[RiOtChEsS]

get this...

since the start of last season, the Warriors have gone 3-3 in games where they have trailed by 20 or more, 50%,

for perspective...

the rest of the league in games where they have trailed by 20 at any point are 13 wins and 486 losses :o

[Mat0369]

You say adding FA's, but who is actually going to want to go there? The time for that would have been this past off-season where having room for a max salary was rare. In a year or two when Philly will be wanting to sign FAs, there'll be team's who can offer just as much money, and offer a better basketball environment. I also think the cheap way that they treat their second round picks, could put some players off of wanting to go there - if they aren't already turned off by all the losing.

What I can't work out is why Philly didn't come out and offer a max to a guy like Jimmy Butler on day 1 of free agency? That was the time to sign guys on contracts that will end up being undervalued, yet they've let that pass and now will be paying full price - and that's if they somehow convince someone to want to go there in the first place.

The trade route is their most likely path to success now if they don't score a generational talent in the draft. But Embiid would hold little trade value around the league now, and Saric I'd be surprised if team's thought of him as a great asset. So what's their trade package they'll be dangling out there in search for a disgruntled superstar? Okafor/Noel + the Lakers pick? It's a nice package, but I struggle to see which team's would actually want to do something like that. Cousins is the obvious guy to look at, but if they wanted to trade him, they'd have done it by now. What other stars realistically have a chance of becoming available? Point is, I think the James Harden trade is one in a million - the idiotic logic behind OKC doing that isn't likely to be replicated anytime soon. You then look at the other 'stars' who have been moved in trades.. Off the top of my head.. Dwight, Melo, D-Will and CP3 are the obvious ones. How many of them turned out well? Probably only CP3..

Philly at this point are just crossing their fingers and hoping something falls into their laps, meanwhile team's that started to rebuild at the same time as they did are actually out there winning games and building themselves into an attractive destination. Time will tell what works I guess, but it's an enjoyable debate in the mean-time as it's a strategy which we haven't really seen in the NBA before.

Looking at the FA class this year, the only guys worth a damn right now are KD, Beal and maybe DeRozan. KD is either staying in OKC or he is going home and playing for Washington. The Wiz look to have a ton of space this offseason, so if I was to bet I would say they keep Beal and sign KD. 2017 the FA class is amazing. There are a lot of C's and PF's that look to be available which isn't a need, but Philly should be able to grab a need. This brings me to my next point

Look at Minnesota right now, they had struggled to get a second fiddle for Love for how long? Right now they are filled with young talent and an emerging group. The first rule is superstars attract superstars, you need to have a group of guys that will attract a big fish. In Minny the weather is crappy, it's a small market and they have been traditionally poor team since KG left. However they might be an attractive destination for someone like Russell Westbrook when his contract expires, especially if KD is gone and the notoriously cheap Thunder don't bring him in any help. So the idea for Philly is to build this young core and have Simmons/Ingram and Embiid/Jah/Noel attract a PG/SG to come play with them. PG is the most replaceable position unless you have someone like Steph or Westbrook (who are both FA's in 2017). Steph stays but it wouldn't surprise me if Russ goes either back to LA or somewhere like Minny. Then the 2nd tier guys like Teague and Lowry become available for these sort of teams and the following year they still have cap space and can bring in a player to fill their deficiencies.

In regards to Butler, I don't think it was going to matter, I don't think he was leaving Chicago and they were going to match whatever offer was put to him, same deal with someone like Draymond, the Warriors were always matching. I was surprised they didn't offer him a deal, but maybe they figured it was just going to be a waste of time so Hinkie started working on the deal with the Kings where they have pick swaps and first round picks coming to them.

This bit will involve Harden and the way they 'treated their second round picks'. You can say the Harden deal was a one off, but there were some people at the time that actually argued OKC won the deal (not many but I remember reading it) and OKC were too cheap to pay Harden while Hinkie and the Rockets were not. So this brings me to KJ, Hinkie is a numbers guy, he has his own formula which he grades players in an almost moneyball type strategy, he will break the bank for a particular type of guy like Harden, but he will stand his ground for someone like KJ. Also don't give me a woe is me story with KJ, they offered him a multi year deal which was reasonable but he chose to take the 1 year contract and bet on himself. Good for him, you perform and you get a quicker pay rise, however in Hinkie's mind he wasn't worth what he was asking based on his formula.

Of the guys they are likely to trade, it will be either Jah or Noel, Saric they are really high on (so is the rest of the league with all the GM's rating him the best European prospect avaialble), it's why they tried to get him out now to play and Embiid they are investing far to much in to give up on him already. I think they keep the 3 man rotation as a safety, it's not exactly something that most teams are doing since they are going the small ball route, but Embiid can actually stretch the floor which will help out Jah and Noel. They need some floor spacers (Stauskas is a low risk option which they are taking a shot on) to help out down the big guys. I was looking at an article on their floor spacing and how poor it has been due not having the shooters and a great PG to execute the pick and roll. JaKarr Sampson has actually been critical to their floor spacing when you read the article  :o

Brown has been trying to get his most talented players on the court right now and to see how it meshes, however McConnell and the bigs lack chemistry and production offensively. From Browns perpective, do you try to develop a different set of rotations around the idea of splitting up Okafor and Noel as much as possible, or do you try to work this out on the court now in a lost year anyway. If Embiid is back next year, the problem continues, or even becomes more complicated. So basically he is trying to develop these young guys offensively, in particular Noel who came into the league with a questionable offensive game.

You can read the article on the floor spacing here if you're interested.

In terms of the rebuild, yeah you are going to have teams in the east passing the 6'ers, but the idea is not to become one of those 4-6 seeds in a weak conference where you never have a realistic shot in contending. That is where they were prior to the Bynum trade, it is basketball purgatory. To win in the league you need at least one superstar. I think the team that is going to be closest to cementing themselves as a top team in the East for a sustained period will be Washington. Having said that, it will depend on if they land KD or not and Wall's rookie season was 2010? Winning now is all well and good, but the whole process is about long term sustained success, not bouncing around like a pinball while getting bounced out in the first or second round every season.

[RiOtChEsS]

You make some good points Mat, i still do not see anyone wanting to sign in Philly except for a second tier free agent that believes they are a tier one talent and need more shots, Minnesota do have some talent but again who will want to go there, a second tier guy that wants more shots.

Anthony Davis is the best talent in the league, who are the Pelicans adding in FA?
If hypothetically i was KD and aligning myself with the best possible talent was my priority then who better? their games compliment each other and still allow for a medium to high use PG.

That it is not what will happen, i don't even think he will go to Washington which is a pretty good fit in my opinion, throw a bunch of low usage big bodies that defend, rebound and finish at the rim and they are an extremely dynamic team.

I dont think he stays in OKC either, i think he will go to the city that best suits the life he wants to live...

[Mat0369]

The Davis one is a good point, he was the guy I was thinking about in terms of guys that didn't have any big FA sign recently, however, they were able to keep Gordon who wanted out and was considered to be a top tier SG at the time they made the deal and bring in Jrue via the trade and he was an All-Star when they brought him in. However Gordon isn't what he was made out to be and Jrue can't stay healthy so it isn't a top attraction right now.

If you bring in the right second tier type of guy like a Kyle Lowry and have another good season where your group continues to improve, you then have the chance to bring in some other vets and maybe that elusive superstar PF or wing you need to take make you a true contender. 

With Durant, I only see him staying in one of two places, he either signs for the max in OKC or he signs for the max in Washington. He has dropped potential hints about going home but he has also said he loves OKC and was just inducted into their hall of fame. He is a quiet kind of guy, he is not the type to go to somewhere like LA or NY just for the cash when there will be other factors in his decision.



Meanwhile I have just turned on the Pelicans game and it looks like Ryan Anderson is getting hot. 14 points and 4/5 from outside

[RiOtChEsS]

Yeah the Peli's win :o

[elephants]

Spurs and OKC... I'm retiring from NBA betting haha

[jvalles69]

Spurs and OKC... I'm retiring from NBA betting haha

I'll join ya... :'(

[RiOtChEsS]

Spurs and OKC... I'm retiring from NBA betting haha

I'll join ya... :'(

haha yeah cruel mistress

[RiOtChEsS]

Warriors going for the record Vs Denver

[elephants]

If they're paying anything over 1.10 I'm all over them with my entire account!

Watched the last quarter today, they're just so good on O and D

[RiOtChEsS]

yeah collectively they are the definition of clutch at the moment

[jvalles69]

Next 14 games for GSW are against lowly teams, this streak could go a while, but I think a team like Phoenix or Boston will upset them.  Game 15 is against the Cavs, the toughest game in that 15 game stretch!

[RiOtChEsS]

Next 14 games for GSW are against lowly teams, this streak could go a while, but I think a team like Phoenix or Boston will upset them.  Game 15 is against the Cavs, the toughest game in that 15 game stretch!

i think the denver game is the most dangerous atm, gonna be a lot of hype leading up

[Jay]

Next 14 games for GSW are against lowly teams, this streak could go a while, but I think a team like Phoenix or Boston will upset them.  Game 15 is against the Cavs, the toughest game in that 15 game stretch!

i think the denver game is the most dangerous atm, gonna be a lot of hype leading up

Nah I think they might lose @ Utah