Crazy trade idea to get Cripps' 172?

LaHug · April 25, 2015, 05:19:08 PM

Ok, guys, need help with this. Can't work out if this is worthwhile.

I have Cripps on the bench with the E. I would really like his 172 points but it's unlikely that anyone in my mids will be a late out.

I am strongly considering downgrading Brett Goodes to Jake Kelly (1 week earlier than planned) so I can afford to upgrade van Berlo to Robbie Gray (2-3 weeks earlier than planned).

Pros:
I get Cripps' 172 over whatever score van Berlo puts up. Predicted 90 point gain.
I play Gray over Lonie for the next two weeks (or so... assuming Deledio stays out). Predicted 70 point gain each week over two weeks.
Means I still have two trades next week in case something else goes wrong and I don't miss out on bringing Kelly in.

Cons:
If Gray is out more than this week and Deledio doesn't return, I still have to keep playing Lonie (not really a con because I'd be playing Lonie either way).
I bring in Gray before he bottoms out. Predicted $50,000 loss.
I trade out van Berlo before he tops out. Predicted $80,000 loss.
If Kelly is dropped, I waste a trade. Predicted 0.5 trades loss.

So it's 230 points over 3 weeks vs. $130k and maybe a trade.

Thoughts?

doogz · April 25, 2015, 05:25:28 PM

I did the loophole with cripps on the bench to get Vandenbergs 110 :/. This is just not my year!

LordSneeze · April 25, 2015, 05:35:11 PM

I don't think it is worth it. Especially seeing as no one really knows how bad Grays injury is.

As a crows supporter I do not see Kelly holding a position in the team for more than 2-3 weeks.

Doggoneit · April 25, 2015, 05:40:21 PM

The question you need to ask is

Will it benefit my team for the long term ?

shaker · April 25, 2015, 05:41:40 PM

Desperate stuff if you do nothing who's score will you get or to put it another way who are you planning to take off if you go ahead with it ?

LaHug · April 25, 2015, 05:44:27 PM

Quote from: LordSneeze on April 25, 2015, 05:35:11 PM
I don't think it is worth it. Especially seeing as no one really knows how bad Grays injury is.

As a crows supporter I do not see Kelly holding a position in the team for more than 2-3 weeks.

Cheers. I know nothing about Kelly other than that he seemed decent last week, so this is useful.

Quote from: Doggoneit on April 25, 2015, 05:40:21 PM
The question you need to ask is

Will it benefit my team for the long term ?

In terms of my team by the end of the season, no. In terms of my overall score, quite possibly. All I've ever really cared about is overall score/rank so that's what I'm considering right now. But good point regardless.

Quote from: shaker on April 25, 2015, 05:41:40 PM
Desperate stuff if you do nothing who's score will you get or who are you planning to take off if you go ahead with it ?

If I do nothing, I get van Berlo's score.

shaker · April 25, 2015, 05:47:45 PM

How many trades have you used so far ? if you have been frugal I say no guts no glory go for it

LaHug · April 25, 2015, 05:53:19 PM

Quote from: shaker on April 25, 2015, 05:47:45 PM
How many trades have you used so far ? if you have been frugal I say no guts no glory go for it

Used 3 already...

shaker · April 25, 2015, 05:56:39 PM

I've used 3 and call that frugal in round 4 have a beer and think about it ;)

nas · April 25, 2015, 05:57:07 PM

Quote from: LaHug on April 25, 2015, 05:53:19 PM
Quote from: shaker on April 25, 2015, 05:47:45 PM
How many trades have you used so far ? if you have been frugal I say no guts no glory go for it

Used 3 already...

Gives you the swing to move between Fwd & Mid status, only main risk is how long for the calf injury for Gray!

LaHug · April 25, 2015, 06:00:37 PM

Quote from: shaker on April 25, 2015, 05:56:39 PM
I've used 3 and call that frugal in round 4 have a beer and think about it ;)

It really shouldn't be this difficult. I mean, my team sucks anyway so there's no harm :P

Quote from: nas on April 25, 2015, 05:57:07 PM
Quote from: LaHug on April 25, 2015, 05:53:19 PM
Quote from: shaker on April 25, 2015, 05:47:45 PM
How many trades have you used so far ? if you have been frugal I say no guts no glory go for it

Used 3 already...

Gives you the swing to move between Fwd & Mid status, only main risk is how long for the calf injury for Gray!

Yeah, the lack of DPP is what's caused this issue in the first place so it's potentially helpful in future...?

But yeah, I couldn't find any info on the Gray injury online :-\

Fid · April 25, 2015, 06:02:45 PM

Quote from: LordSneeze on April 25, 2015, 05:35:11 PM
I don't think it is worth it. Especially seeing as no one really knows how bad Grays injury is.

As a crows supporter I do not see Kelly holding a position in the team for more than 2-3 weeks.

Isn't it just a corked (bruised) calf?

nas · April 25, 2015, 06:04:36 PM

Best i could find

http://footyprophet.com/gray-calf-withdrawn-from-squad/

LaHug · April 25, 2015, 06:12:45 PM

Quote from: nas on April 25, 2015, 06:04:36 PM
Best i could find

http://footyprophet.com/gray-calf-withdrawn-from-squad/

That seems... far from official. But it's better than anything I've found!

Quote from: Fid on April 25, 2015, 06:02:45 PM
Quote from: LordSneeze on April 25, 2015, 05:35:11 PM
I don't think it is worth it. Especially seeing as no one really knows how bad Grays injury is.

As a crows supporter I do not see Kelly holding a position in the team for more than 2-3 weeks.

Isn't it just a corked (bruised) calf?

Yeah, I thought that "corked calf" sounded like something very minor. But, if it were minor, why wouldn't they just let him play through it against the Hawks in a big, Anzac Day game?!

LaHug · April 25, 2015, 07:19:34 PM

I'm leaning towards no unless someone can convince me otherwise in the next 10 minutes.