ROUND 4 TRADES

[tor01doc]

Most have cover I reckon.

Hodge or Smith?

[kilbluff1985]

Most have cover I reckon.

Hodge or Smith?

coin flip imo

[tor01doc]

Then Hodge with DPP and a lower BE and a Hawk and just quietly he is mancrush material.  ;)

[TomK]

why are people getting Bont might not even play this week

Well he flew over to Launceston so he must of been pretty close to playing

[_wato]

Seeing as 1 in 2 teams have Bont I'm going to miss the boat on him and hopefully it pays off.

A lot are using him as a stepping stone but I just cannot justify two trades to a super premo (getting him in and then out - if you started him well done but most didn't) and I don't see him averaging above 95, just being my honest opinion.

Will most definitely be proved wrong, but the feeling of having him with no general support around him and only in his second year, plus all the guns we can choose up front and I'll pass

Would much rather Gray, Bartel, Dusty, Bennell, Swan, Buddy/Lids/BJ/Roughy as my final 6

[tor01doc]

True enough, it's just IF he keeps it up he'll save you $100,000 easily.

Hmmmm.

[devize]

Have 670k from downgrading gaz last week. Going to be upgrading Anderson and trading out Bartel.

Option 1:

Anderson > Sloane
Bartel > Gray with 150k left

Option 2:

Anderson> Watson
Bartel > Buddy or similar with 250k left

Option 3:

Anderson> Sloane
Bartel > Bont with 300k left

Option 3:

Anderson> Watson
Bartel> Bont with 360k left


I'm thinking option 2 or 3 as this'll be enough cash to do a straight rookie > prem upgrade without having to do a double trade to downgrade another rookie in a couple weeks. Not sure about Bont will keep things up and don't like paying for players at their peak prices in Sloane but he's looking good.

[tor01doc]

1.

[poolboybob]

Let me throw a real roughie out there - Stephen Coniglio.

Was vested in round 1, then scored 136 (26 touches) and 121 (24 touches) the last two rounds. Last year he started out strong (100+ in 4 of his first 5 rounds), then dropped off and had some injury problems, then played 3 solid matches (29, 26, 26 touches) before getting hurt again. Obviously is very talented and it's about the right time for a breakout year. Any interest in him at $452k? Or too risky with all those midfielders (Whitfield, Griffen, Ward, Shiel, Smith, Greene, Scully) at the Giants?

[Bully]

Seeing as 1 in 2 teams have Bont I'm going to miss the boat on him and hopefully it pays off.

A lot are using him as a stepping stone but I just cannot justify two trades to a super premo (getting him in and then out - if you started him well done but most didn't) and I don't see him averaging above 95, just being my honest opinion.

Will most definitely be proved wrong, but the feeling of having him with no general support around him and only in his second year, plus all the guns we can choose up front and I'll pass

Would much rather Gray, Bartel, Dusty, Bennell, Swan, Buddy/Lids/BJ/Roughy as my final 6

I think you are correct with the estimates however 95 seems to be around the mark for all the forwards at this stage, Gray, Martin & Swan aside. At worst he puts on 100k and can then be traded to a top 6 forward. Given there are no clear contenders I find this strategy low risk, high reward. The extra 130k will be used to bring in Brodie Smith so it's a win/win.

I did some calculations and if there are no slip ups over the next few rounds he could be up around Robbie Gray's price, I have him but others may not. My plan will be to either keep him if he averages 100 or use him to get a premo ruck.

[Bully]

Let me throw a real roughie out there - Stephen Coniglio.

Was vested in round 1, then scored 136 (26 touches) and 121 (24 touches) the last two rounds. Last year he started out strong (100+ in 4 of his first 5 rounds), then dropped off and had some injury problems, then played 3 solid matches (29, 26, 26 touches) before getting hurt again. Obviously is very talented and it's about the right time for a breakout year. Any interest in him at $452k? Or too risky with all those midfielders (Whitfield, Griffen, Ward, Shiel, Smith, Greene, Scully) at the Giants?

I think your opening 5 words tells a tale, i would steer clear of mid pricers, particularly those from GWS.

[devize]

1.

You don't think the extra 100k would be better saved for a straight premo upgrade in a couple weeks?

[_wato]

I think you are correct with the estimates however 95 seems to be around the mark for all the forwards at this stage, Gray, Martin & Swan aside. At worst he puts on 100k and can then be traded to a top 6 forward. Given there are no clear contenders I find this strategy low risk, high reward. The extra 130k will be used to bring in Brodie Smith so it's a win/win.

I did some calculations and if there are no slip ups over the next few rounds he could be up around Robbie Gray's price, I have him but others may not. My plan will be to either keep him if he averages 100 or use him to get a premo ruck.

The only problem or flaw I see in choosing him for the price injection is that all it takes is for him to have a stinker next week and he goes nowhere with a high breakeven the next week which he may fail to meet and you've got a player who can't be sideways traded without using $$$ and you'd be pissed off if he didn't meet your expectations of a 95 average because then he'd become a nothing pick.
A projected score of 106 this week against Adelaide and 92 against Sydney sees him at $502k within a fortnight but even with a flow of 100's projected (112 avg over 5 weeks) it would take him until Round 10 to reach only $550k.. I'm wondering what score you have him getting to reach Gray's price because with those scores predicted, I see them as worthy and fairly considerate given the opposition he's coming up against. For that reason alone, I'm staying away and would much rather spend more $$$ to get a proven premium and save that trade you'd have to use if things went pear shaped.
I know it seems old school but I think you have to go that way in the forward line this year.

[Bully]

I think you are correct with the estimates however 95 seems to be around the mark for all the forwards at this stage, Gray, Martin & Swan aside. At worst he puts on 100k and can then be traded to a top 6 forward. Given there are no clear contenders I find this strategy low risk, high reward. The extra 130k will be used to bring in Brodie Smith so it's a win/win.

I did some calculations and if there are no slip ups over the next few rounds he could be up around Robbie Gray's price, I have him but others may not. My plan will be to either keep him if he averages 100 or use him to get a premo ruck.

The only problem or flaw I see in choosing him for the price injection is that all it takes is for him to have a stinker next week and he goes nowhere with a high breakeven the next week which he may fail to meet and you've got a player who can't be sideways traded without using $$$ and you'd be pissed off if he didn't meet your expectations of a 95 average because then he'd become a nothing pick.
A projected score of 106 this week against Adelaide and 92 against Sydney sees him at $502k within a fortnight but even with a flow of 100's projected (112 avg over 5 weeks) it would take him until Round 10 to reach only $550k.. I'm wondering what score you have him getting to reach Gray's price because with those scores predicted, I see them as worthy and fairly considerate given the opposition he's coming up against. For that reason alone, I'm staying away and would much rather spend more $$$ to get a proven premium and save that trade you'd have to use if things went pear shaped.
I know it seems old school but I think you have to go that way in the forward line this year.

Your calculations are accurate and after two hard matches he plays St Kilda, a big score likely one would think. The thing you are overlooking is the fact that Gray will lose money now that he has a 70 in his rolling average, same with the rucks with the exception of Goldy. I even expect Buddy to throw in a stinker against Freo. Certainly if he has a poor game in the next couple of weeks then the plan goes out the window, I'm well aware of that, but I'm also aware that in an absolute worst case scenario he can be traded for Bartel in 6 weeks hopefully with some spare change.

[FactHunt]

Most have cover I reckon.

Hodge or Smith?

Hodgey getting hard to ignore- his ceiling is very high...
I think I want both these guys in