The 2015 U18/Draft Thread

[elephants]

Nah man he's sliding to #23 ;) #JackDarlingStyle

[Holz]

anyone reckon something is dodgy is up and he is moving down the draft order to get to a club.

or is he just being stupid and get in trouble a few days before the draft.

[Ricochet]

or is he just being stupid and get in trouble a few days before the draft.

[powersuperkents]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2015-charlie-curnow-held-by-geelong-police-after-traffic-incident/news-story/c677c15d4e801fcfd4aa436c0932638c?utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_source=HeraldSun&utm_medium=Twitter

TOP draft prospect Charlie Curnow spent the night at a Geelong police station last night after refusing a breath test.

He was released about 6am today.

Well my top 10 predictions could be flowered over now, I doubt clubs will read too much into it though - if he had drank, or drank excessively over the legal limit (0 BAC) they would be charging him for his refusal

I doubt this minor incident will deter clubs for selecting him

@Holz, if they don't charge him for his refusal to undergo the breath test (which is a crime), it will be dodgy regardless of whether he was drinking or not... (if he wasn't drinking, why would he refuse...). I think he may be trying to slip to pick 8 to be with his brother

However, stupidity would be the more likely of the two options  :P

[powersuperkents]

Did they administer a breath test at the police station?

AFL.com hasn't released any further info and I cannot access the Herald Sun  :-\

[Mat0369]

“He was taken to a police station. Charges against Charlie could be being drunk in public, refusing breath analysis and not displaying P-plates.”

That's from the HS article. It will be interesting to see if he slides with certain clubs, if he is there with our 2nd pick we are guaranteed to take him. Ed has been nothing but class on and off the field. I think it seems like an isolated mistake so it probably doesn't change anything

[powersuperkents]

“He was taken to a police station. Charges against Charlie could be being drunk in public, refusing breath analysis and not displaying P-plates.”

That's from the HS article. It will be interesting to see if he slides with certain clubs, if he is there with our 2nd pick we are guaranteed to take him. Ed has been nothing but class on and off the field. I think it seems like an isolated mistake so it probably doesn't change anything

Yeah if I had to bet I would still be confident he will be a top 5 pick (not including academy bids - Mills, and arguably Hopper, will have bids in the top 5 imo)

He's young and the charges are not too severe, however drink driving should not be considered trivial, so I think clubs will overlook it as a lapse of judgement on his part. I know there are a lot of low-blows towards the bombers since the ASADA investigations, however their selection standards regarding player, and potential player, behaviour would be considered among the highest in the AFL (a good example of appallingly low standards regarding this critieria would be Richmond after Wallace destroyed the club making them desparate enough to take just about anyone - it's good to see that Dimma has changed that completely since arriving (rejecting Bennell being the most recent case).

If any team in the top 5-10 were to pass on him solely based on this incident, it would be the Bombers. The Suns would snap him up in a heartbeat though so it may be tough for Carlton and the Dees would certainly pick him over Weideman. Carlton fans still have a valid hope that he slips to pick 8 though (certainly a possibility) and I could not see them passing on him if he did slip (I would go as far as saying that if he was available at pick 8, it would be impossible for him not to be picked up by the Blues - but that's just stating the obvious  :P )

He is naturally more talented than his brother and he will most likely have a similar work ethic so if I were the Bomber's selectors I would not pass on him - if I were a Dees selector the only thing stopping me would be potential Brownlow medalist in Parish & a potential superstar in Francis. However, I'm under the impression that the Dees would prefer Curnow to Francis   

[Nige]

NAB AFL Draft Verified account ‏@AFLDraft 31m31 minutes ago

Josh Dunkley, son of Andrew, has nominated the @sydneyswans under the father-son selection rule. #AFLDraft

[powersuperkents]

Just read an interesting point on the Carlton thread, if Curnow was to slide past the Bombers pick 5, would the Suns pick him up considering their culture problem this season??

I think the Suns would be willing to disregard the conduct if it ultimately was found to be a lapse of judgement. However, it would say this would be a valid point (meaning it would be up to the Dees to decide whether or not to select him)

This is all theoretical (if I had to bet, it will still be the Bombers with their second pick)

[Mat0369]

Just read an interesting point on the Carlton thread, if Curnow was to slide past the Bombers pick 5, would the Suns pick him up considering their culture problem this season??

I think the Suns would be willing to disregard the conduct if it ultimately was found to be a lapse of judgement. However, it would say this would be a valid point (meaning it would be up to the Dees to decide whether or not to select him)

This is all theoretical (if I had to bet, it will still be the Bombers with their second pick)

So looking at the order, it is like this

Carlton
Brisbane
Melbourne
Essendon
Essendon
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Carlton

I am not going to include the academy picks but with rumors of player interest flying around it could break like this

Weitering
Schache
Parrish

They look to be the top 3

So from there Essendon will look at taking a KPP and potentially a mid, if the Facebook slip is legit then it looks like the Bombers plan on taking a combo of Curnow/Weidman/Francis and Oliver.

This will bring us to the Suns pick, now say that the Dons don't take Oliver and decide to go Francis/Weidman instead, there was talk the Suns were looking at a midfielder because they aren't sure that Prestia and O'Meara are going to stay. There was a mention in an article that the Suns were also looking at Oliver so he could very well be the pick. Otherwise I can see them drafting the best available mid in the draft if they do have a legit concern. While they did lose Dixon, they have also lost Bennell. They have Wright waiting in the wings to step up and play a role with Lynch and Day in the forward line. Potentially losing a core of Prestia, O'Meara and Bennell in the span of 24 months would be huge. While they do have guys like Miller, Garlett and Martin ready to step in, they need an inside mid pretty badly. Lonergan can fill that role but he hasn't been spectacular and only really played well off half back for a small stretch of games. Rischa is getting up there in age and so is Gaz, that leaves Swallow as the only other guy that can work inside.

This means that the Dees will look at the best available KPP, ideally a forward with their next pick. If Curnow is as good projected, I don't think he falls any lower then the Dees pick.

[Antho Witto]

Milera has been strongly linked with GC for a while now.

And there are reports that Weideman isn't fit enough to be a star player and although he will improve that I don't know if Essedon will take that risk.

Weitering
Schache
Parish
Francis
Curnow
Milera
Weideman
Oliver

my prediction for the top few picks.

I don't really know what is going to happen after that.

[tbagrocks]

This lad will almost certainly become a fan favourite wherever he goes, but where he goes is the big question since he hasn't played footy for a while - Ryan Burton

Carn Adelaide, FIRE UP!!!

[Pkbaldy]

This lad will almost certainly become a fan favourite wherever he goes, but where he goes is the big question since he hasn't played footy for a while - Ryan Burton

Carn Adelaide, FIRE UP!!!

He'd look better in a Saints uniform though :P

[powersuperkents]

Milera has been strongly linked with GC for a while now.

And there are reports that Weideman isn't fit enough to be a star player and although he will improve that I don't know if Essedon will take that risk.

Weitering
Schache
Parish
Francis
Curnow
Milera
Weideman
Oliver

my prediction for the top few picks.

I don't really know what is going to happen after that.

+1 I see GCS picking a skillful half-forward, they have lacked one and Jack Martin is too injury prone. Clayton Oliver is the other player I could see them taking but Milera/Balic will be their preferences imo

Weideman has ruined his chances after the fitness test. I still think the Dees will settle for him at pick 7 if all goes as predicted. However, if he cannot build the fitness base in juniors, the Dees run the risk of selecting a player who may never be at AFL standard. He would be a bargain outside the top 10 based on potential, but a gamble in the top 10 due to his impugned fitness. I still would have him predicted for the Dees second pick if Curnow isn't available. His fitness at 18 isn't enough for him to be disregarded, it's only sufficient enough to generate some concerns for clubs (Mathieson may be another who clubs will ruminate over before selecting - his fitness base is limited in terms of the beep test, but if he has footy smarts it will not matter as the players who best read the game expend less energy because they know "where to run")

[Mat0369]

The thing with a key position player is you don't expect them to come in and make an immediate impact. Hogan is the exception, not the rule. Someone like Weideman will have time to develop and that might require him to play in the VFL with sporadic appearances for the seniors in his first couple of seasons. I think that is what most people would expect and he will have a chance to build a tank with a few AFL pre-seasons.