The 2015 U18/Draft Thread

[Bully]

This kid can really play and has an amazing inside game - Rhys Mathieson.

Will be the big slider in my opinion, word is the scouts were pretty underwhelmed with his athletic testing. Recorded a 12.4 beep test which is an incredibly low base to work with. Remembering Clem Smith copped an ear bashing for his 11.12 beep test last year and he's a back flanker. Rhys will get picked but I'm tipping in the 15-25 range.

hopefully his dream comes to reality and is in the RW&B next year  8)

I think he's right in the draft sweet spot for the Saints, think they can have him if they want him. The key here is several preseasons before he's ready to run out matches, just to put things into some perspective, 12.4 has been run by some top level u/12's, he's got a truckload of work to do. Fantastic attitude however and I'd back him in to get the best out of himself.

When was the last time you played football? Because the Beep test isn't the best indicator of how well you can 'run out matches', I've seen people who probably couldn't run a 12.4 in a beep test, but can run out an entire game of football. It all has to do with stamina recovery, some people are better than others with it. If Matho's recovery is good (Which by looking at his games this year he has above good recovery), he'll be able to do short bursts on the inside and then recover quickly before his next contest.

The last time I played was 20 years ago, but as far the testing is concerned all things need to be considered. Mathieson tested in the bottom 30% for all the running events, he's not overly quick, he doesn't possess great agility and his endurance is well behind all player types and not just the midfielders he'll be competing against. People are comparing him to Lewis but he already had the tank to make an early impression, Mathieson looks destined to spend a fair bit of time on a flank as he builds up the motor, either that or he plays in the VFL for 2 years.

I will also add that AFL requires players to be constantly on the move, as an inside midfielder, getting to every contest is a monumental task, most top line mids run 15km a match. The difference between u/18 football and AFL is huge when assessing the fitness requirements.

[Ricochet]

This kid can really play and has an amazing inside game - Rhys Mathieson.

Will be the big slider in my opinion, word is the scouts were pretty underwhelmed with his athletic testing. Recorded a 12.4 beep test which is an incredibly low base to work with. Remembering Clem Smith copped an ear bashing for his 11.12 beep test last year and he's a back flanker. Rhys will get picked but I'm tipping in the 15-25 range.

hopefully his dream comes to reality and is in the RW&B next year  8)

I think he's right in the draft sweet spot for the Saints, think they can have him if they want him. The key here is several preseasons before he's ready to run out matches, just to put things into some perspective, 12.4 has been run by some top level u/12's, he's got a truckload of work to do. Fantastic attitude however and I'd back him in to get the best out of himself.

When was the last time you played football? Because the Beep test isn't the best indicator of how well you can 'run out matches', I've seen people who probably couldn't run a 12.4 in a beep test, but can run out an entire game of football. It all has to do with stamina recovery, some people are better than others with it. If Matho's recovery is good (Which by looking at his games this year he has above good recovery), he'll be able to do short bursts on the inside and then recover quickly before his next contest.

The last time I played was 20 years ago, but as far the testing is concerned all things need to be considered. Mathieson tested in the bottom 30% for all the running events, he's not overly quick, he doesn't possess great agility and his endurance is well behind all player types and not just the midfielders he'll be competing against. People are comparing him to Lewis but he already had the tank to make an early impression, Mathieson looks destined to spend a fair bit of time on a flank as he builds up the motor, either that or he plays in the VFL for 2 years.

I will also add that AFL requires players to be constantly on the move, as an inside midfielder, getting to every contest is a monumental task, most top line mids run 15km a match. The difference between u/18 football and AFL is huge when assessing the fitness requirements.

and some

[The_Captain]

This kid can really play and has an amazing inside game - Rhys Mathieson.

Will be the big slider in my opinion, word is the scouts were pretty underwhelmed with his athletic testing. Recorded a 12.4 beep test which is an incredibly low base to work with. Remembering Clem Smith copped an ear bashing for his 11.12 beep test last year and he's a back flanker. Rhys will get picked but I'm tipping in the 15-25 range.

hopefully his dream comes to reality and is in the RW&B next year  8)

I think he's right in the draft sweet spot for the Saints, think they can have him if they want him. The key here is several preseasons before he's ready to run out matches, just to put things into some perspective, 12.4 has been run by some top level u/12's, he's got a truckload of work to do. Fantastic attitude however and I'd back him in to get the best out of himself.

When was the last time you played football? Because the Beep test isn't the best indicator of how well you can 'run out matches', I've seen people who probably couldn't run a 12.4 in a beep test, but can run out an entire game of football. It all has to do with stamina recovery, some people are better than others with it. If Matho's recovery is good (Which by looking at his games this year he has above good recovery), he'll be able to do short bursts on the inside and then recover quickly before his next contest.

12.4 is pretty p1ss poor. He is miles off where he needs to be. He would want to be hitting at least high 14s before even getting close to being afl ready....

[Bully]

15km would be the bare minimum, the best can run 20km. Chris Judd averaged 17km a match, Crawford about the same. Robert Harvey has nudged 20km on occasion. The interesting part is that 20-25% is made up of sprints, one therefore needs to be a good all rounder to get to as many contests as possible.

[Big Mac]

15km would be the bare minimum, the best can run 20km. Chris Judd averaged 17km a match, Crawford about the same. Robert Harvey has nudged 20km on occasion. The interesting part is that 20-25% is made up of sprints, one therefore needs to be a good all rounder to get to as many contests as possible.

just curious, what constitutes a sprint?

[Bully]

15km would be the bare minimum, the best can run 20km. Chris Judd averaged 17km a match, Crawford about the same. Robert Harvey has nudged 20km on occasion. The interesting part is that 20-25% is made up of sprints, one therefore needs to be a good all rounder to get to as many contests as possible.

just curious, what constitutes a sprint?

Running at full pace would be considered a sprint, the rest would be seen as jogging and then there's walking and being completely stationary. Nathan Buckley was tracked on a televised game in 2003 and covered 20km of which 23% was considered to be sprinting, the rest fell into the jogging and walking category.

[Big Mac]

15km would be the bare minimum, the best can run 20km. Chris Judd averaged 17km a match, Crawford about the same. Robert Harvey has nudged 20km on occasion. The interesting part is that 20-25% is made up of sprints, one therefore needs to be a good all rounder to get to as many contests as possible.

just curious, what constitutes a sprint?

Running at full pace would be considered a sprint, the rest would be seen as jogging and then there's walking and being completely stationary. Nathan Buckley was tracked on a televised game in 2003 and covered 20km of which 23% was considered to be sprinting, the rest fell into the jogging and walking category.

I mean, they don't figure out a player's max speed and then start tracking when the player reaches that speed though do they? There's   also a time when someone is 'sprinting' but not yet at full pace (still accelerating), and also i'm guessing a player's max speed would decrease as the game goes on. So is there someway to measure a player's 'output' and then for example a player would be considered to be 'sprinting' when they exceeded 85% or 90% or something of their max 'output'?

[Ziplock]

I'm pretty sure the AFL average is around 15km

This kid can really play and has an amazing inside game - Rhys Mathieson.

Will be the big slider in my opinion, word is the scouts were pretty underwhelmed with his athletic testing. Recorded a 12.4 beep test which is an incredibly low base to work with. Remembering Clem Smith copped an ear bashing for his 11.12 beep test last year and he's a back flanker. Rhys will get picked but I'm tipping in the 15-25 range.

hopefully his dream comes to reality and is in the RW&B next year  8)

I think he's right in the draft sweet spot for the Saints, think they can have him if they want him. The key here is several preseasons before he's ready to run out matches, just to put things into some perspective, 12.4 has been run by some top level u/12's, he's got a truckload of work to do. Fantastic attitude however and I'd back him in to get the best out of himself.

When was the last time you played football? Because the Beep test isn't the best indicator of how well you can 'run out matches', I've seen people who probably couldn't run a 12.4 in a beep test, but can run out an entire game of football. It all has to do with stamina recovery, some people are better than others with it. If Matho's recovery is good (Which by looking at his games this year he has above good recovery), he'll be able to do short bursts on the inside and then recover quickly before his next contest.

12.4 is pretty p1ss poor. He is miles off where he needs to be. He would want to be hitting at least high 14s before even getting close to being afl ready....

12.1 for a non-professional athlete is a reasonable fitness basis.

obviously to improve he'd need to step it up significantly.

15km would be the bare minimum, the best can run 20km. Chris Judd averaged 17km a match, Crawford about the same. Robert Harvey has nudged 20km on occasion. The interesting part is that 20-25% is made up of sprints, one therefore needs to be a good all rounder to get to as many contests as possible.

just curious, what constitutes a sprint?

Running at full pace would be considered a sprint, the rest would be seen as jogging and then there's walking and being completely stationary. Nathan Buckley was tracked on a televised game in 2003 and covered 20km of which 23% was considered to be sprinting, the rest fell into the jogging and walking category.

I mean, they don't figure out a player's max speed and then start tracking when the player reaches that speed though do they? There's   also a time when someone is 'sprinting' but not yet at full pace (still accelerating), and also i'm guessing a player's max speed would decrease as the game goes on. So is there someway to measure a player's 'output' and then for example a player would be considered to be 'sprinting' when they exceeded 85% or 90% or something of their max 'output'?

yeah, it wouldn't be max pace. It'd either be a % of max pace or a measurement of acceleration or something.

[Bully]

15km would be the bare minimum, the best can run 20km. Chris Judd averaged 17km a match, Crawford about the same. Robert Harvey has nudged 20km on occasion. The interesting part is that 20-25% is made up of sprints, one therefore needs to be a good all rounder to get to as many contests as possible.

just curious, what constitutes a sprint?

Running at full pace would be considered a sprint, the rest would be seen as jogging and then there's walking and being completely stationary. Nathan Buckley was tracked on a televised game in 2003 and covered 20km of which 23% was considered to be sprinting, the rest fell into the jogging and walking category.

I mean, they don't figure out a player's max speed and then start tracking when the player reaches that speed though do they? There's   also a time when someone is 'sprinting' but not yet at full pace (still accelerating), and also i'm guessing a player's max speed would decrease as the game goes on. So is there someway to measure a player's 'output' and then for example a player would be considered to be 'sprinting' when they exceeded 85% or 90% or something of their max 'output'?

I'm sure it would have to be in a certain range, possibly around the mark of the 30m repeat sprint at the combine. Times certainly do get slower as a player tires throughout a match, this would need to be taken into account.

[powersuperkents]

Almost certainly your number one pick for 2015 unless the Blues want to flower with everyone or are just plain stupid - Jacob Weitering

Gun! Will likely become the captain of either the Blue, or the less likely Lions. Should be the league's best defender once he has developed - furthermore, he is already physically equip for AFL level.

[Nige]

A son of a famous Blues gun - Jack Silvagni

[kilbluff1985]

one week until the draft and i'm very excited for what it's worth i think we will take Aaron Francis and Clayton Oliver which i know means no Weideman or Curnow but i think Francis is a lock and don't see us taking 2 KPP's

[powersuperkents]

one week until the draft and i'm very excited for what it's worth i think we will take Aaron Francis and Clayton Oliver which i know means no Weideman or Curnow but i think Francis is a lock and don't see us taking 2 KPP's

I've tipped that

Pick 4: Francis (Essendon)
Pick 5: Callum Mills (Sydney) (Essendon makes the bid)
Pick 6: Curnow (Essendon)

But I think I've made the wrong decision - I think the Mills bid will come with Essendon's 2nd pick, but why would they suddenly change to a KPP with their next pick if that were the case

I think you're call will be correct - the idea of getting Curnow & Francis would be awesome, however the Bombers will most likely look for a long-term replacement for Watson (Merrett can already fill the Stanton void so a big contested mid seems the go). If only I submitted my tips after seeing this  :-[

[Ziplock]

one week until the draft and i'm very excited for what it's worth i think we will take Aaron Francis and Clayton Oliver which i know means no Weideman or Curnow but i think Francis is a lock and don't see us taking 2 KPP's

I've tipped that

Pick 4: Francis (Essendon)
Pick 5: Callum Mills (Sydney) (Essendon makes the bid)
Pick 6: Curnow (Essendon)

But I think I've made the wrong decision - I think the Mills bid will come with Essendon's 2nd pick, but why would they suddenly change to a KPP with their next pick if that were the case

I think you're call will be correct - the idea of getting Curnow & Francis would be awesome, however the Bombers will most likely look for a long-term replacement for Watson (Merrett can already fill the Stanton void so a big contested mid seems the go). If only I submitted my tips after seeing this  :-[

for top 10 picks clubs (normally) look at talent rather than list needs, so maybe it's the right call :P

[powersuperkents]

one week until the draft and i'm very excited for what it's worth i think we will take Aaron Francis and Clayton Oliver which i know means no Weideman or Curnow but i think Francis is a lock and don't see us taking 2 KPP's

I've tipped that

Pick 4: Francis (Essendon)
Pick 5: Callum Mills (Sydney) (Essendon makes the bid)
Pick 6: Curnow (Essendon)

But I think I've made the wrong decision - I think the Mills bid will come with Essendon's 2nd pick, but why would they suddenly change to a KPP with their next pick if that were the case

I think you're call will be correct - the idea of getting Curnow & Francis would be awesome, however the Bombers will most likely look for a long-term replacement for Watson (Merrett can already fill the Stanton void so a big contested mid seems the go). If only I submitted my tips after seeing this  :-[

for top 10 picks clubs (normally) look at talent rather than list needs, so maybe it's the right call :P

It's why NAB have this contest - one left field pick in the top 10 and no-one wins the $10k hahaha

The Cockatoo selection at 10 (and Marchbank at #6 - both great players, however next to no-one expected them to be top-10 selections) and Laverde (heavily tipped to be a top 10 selection) sliding last draft would certainly have made last year's selections almost impossible to select

Also, Curnow can play as a tall mid - so I can keep dreaming about the $10k if Essendon go for needs + best available :P

Definitely tough, the Suns' pick is also going to be difficult - I cannot tell what their list needs are (probably a talented half-forward) but there are a few 'best-available' options to choose from for their pick... They were the hardest to call