Will Brett Goodes be punished?

[ronl]

 I don't know much about Luke Beveridge as a coach, but is he the sort who holds grudges?  Could Brett Goodes end up sitting on the bench for 3 quarters because he was a naughty boy last week?  It bothers me that he's named as 4th substitute, that's never a good sign.

[kilbluff1985]

I don't know much about Luke Beveridge as a coach, but is he the sort who holds grudges?  Could Brett Goodes end up sitting on the bench for 3 quarters because he was a naughty boy last week?  It bothers me that he's named as 4th substitute, that's never a good sign.

he was on the extended bench last week i'm pretty sure

[honza]

ffs any player in the 22 can be named sub.

[nrich102]

Doesn't matter where the players name. I don't think he will be sub.

[shaker]

You just have to be ready when subs are named to swap players around Cripps and Vandenberg also named on the pine does not mean they will start there

[ossie85]

Doesn't matter where the players name. I don't think he will be sub.

I agree anyone can be named sub, but there's a higher chance if named on bench

[elephants]

Yeah man chill out, this is SC. Just check the subs on Saturday morning and flick Goodes to the bench if he's sub and bring on Saad or whatever.

[tkringle]

I don't know much about Luke Beveridge as a coach, but is he the sort who holds grudges?  Could Brett Goodes end up sitting on the bench for 3 quarters because he was a naughty boy last week?  It bothers me that he's named as 4th substitute, that's never a good sign.

I must have missed something, how was he a "naughty boy"?

[sammy123]

Heads uo to any new people on this site. Anyone named on field can be sub.

Why was he naughty. Is it cause he scored 60 odd. If so it SC not real life.

[honza]

Doesn't matter where the players name. I don't think he will be sub.

I agree anyone can be named sub, but there's a higher chance if named on bench

This aint the way probabilities work.

Weather, waking up with a runny poo, tight hammy, change in opposition squad, plain old the 22nd best player in the team.... all these things influence the decision.

[ossie85]

Doesn't matter where the players name. I don't think he will be sub.

I agree anyone can be named sub, but there's a higher chance if named on bench

This aint the way probabilities work.

Weather, waking up with a runny poo, tight hammy, change in opposition squad, plain old the 22nd best player in the team.... all these things influence the decision.

Well, I could if I had time extract all the teams that were ever named, and determine the likelihood based on that on which player is named... but I don't have the time. But that is the way probabilities work. You're right that a big bunch of other factors come into play, but I still think you'll find that if you are named on the bench, you are more likely to be named sub than somebody named on the field.

[eaglesman]

All I wanna know is why was he naughty ?

I worried about sub also don't care where he is named though

[honza]

Doesn't matter where the players name. I don't think he will be sub.

I agree anyone can be named sub, but there's a higher chance if named on bench

This aint the way probabilities work.

Weather, waking up with a runny poo, tight hammy, change in opposition squad, plain old the 22nd best player in the team.... all these things influence the decision.

Well, I could if I had time extract all the teams that were ever named, and determine the likelihood based on that on which player is named... but I don't have the time. But that is the way probabilities work. You're right that a big bunch of other factors come into play, but I still think you'll find that if you are named on the bench, you are more likely to be named sub than somebody named on the field.

;D

Id love to do some calculations with you.

Kicking things off, are the sub selections mutually ex/inclusive, conditional or independent?

[ossie85]

Because I got to thinking about it, and this is based on only 1 round of data, this is what happened last round:

Player   Position in original team named
   
Clem Smith   HF
Nathan Gordon   Interchange (4th)
Jimmy Toumpas   HF
Jarrod Garlett   Interchange (1st)
Jake Lloyd   Interchange (3rd)
Ben Howlett   Interchange (2nd)
Sam Mayes   Interchange (1st)
Jordan de Goey   Interchange (4th)
Jarrad Grant   Interchange (4th)
Tom Lamb   HF
Jack Sinclair   Interchange (3rd)
Stephen Coniglio   Foll
Jarryd Lyons   Interchange (4th)
Kayne Turner   Interchange (4th)
Matt de Boer   Interchange (4th)
Angus Monfries   Interchange (1st)
Jed Anderson   Interchange (4th)
Cory Gregson   Interchange (1st)


So 14 of the 18 subs were named on the bench (78%).

And 7 of those were named as the 4th interchange (39%).

So again, just based on 1 round of results - there was a 78% chance that sub came from the bench. And also, if you were named as the 4th interchange, you had a 39% chance of being sub.




Don't know about the naughty though

[ossie85]

Kicking things off, are the sub selections mutually ex/inclusive, conditional or independent?

Mate, I've got a degree in economics, a major in statistics and work for a statistical agency.

But when it comes to this stuff, simplicity is best.