Rucks - Light/POD

[bkp130]

Thats the other side of the argument that i was toying with though. Set and forget is all well and good. But who will be the top 5 ruckman.  To me its just a guess and dont want to have to make too many corrective trades early.  If i was going set and forget it would be Goldstein and Maric as the others are too expensive for me but you never know.

So hard in the rucks.

[Jay]

Thats the other side of the argument that i was toying with though. Set and forget is all well and good. But who will be the top 5 ruckman.  To me its just a guess and dont want to have to make too many corrective trades early.  If i was going set and forget it would be Goldstein and Maric as the others are too expensive for me but you never know.

So hard in the rucks.

Yep you're exactly right. No idea how guys like 211, Maric, Lobbe, Ryder and Minson are going to go.

I've just forked out the extra cash and gone with the Goldsauce combo :)

[bkp130]

Massive amount of cash but probably the best combofor this season.  Must be weak in one other line?

[Jay]

Massive amount of cash but probably the best combofor this season.  Must be weak in one other line?

Swallow M4 and Salem F5 are probably my weak links. Think it can work though.

[bkp130]

sounds pretty good. I also have salem at F5. M4 for me at the moment is Bontompelli so you are doing better than me. Currently rucks are Goldstein and Mraic and have 20K left over.

[SydneyRox]

Goldy Nic Nat will be the most popular combo I think, everyone hoping its a set and forget!

[kilbluff1985]

could somebody please tell me the % of ownership for Stefan Martin

Cheers

[frenzy]

this is the way I'm rolling, cos I'm predicting a price fall for all ruckmen this season. So I see all ruckmen as upgrade targets. If ruckmen need to get more ball around the field to score well, then rucks like Goldy are gunna be cheap, come midseason. IMO some will drop 100k. I will be starting another premo mid instead.

I could be wrong, But if I'm right, I see an advantage to be had.

[Gigantor]

could somebody please tell me the % of ownership for Stefan Martin

Cheers

2.36%

[bkp130]

this is the way I'm rolling, cos I'm predicting a price fall for all ruckmen this season. So I see all ruckmen as upgrade targets. If ruckmen need to get more ball around the field to score well, then rucks like Goldy are gunna be cheap, come midseason. IMO some will drop 100k. I will be starting another premo mid instead.

I could be wrong, But if I'm right, I see an advantage to be had.

Im thinking the same thing mate. Who are you running with at the moment

[timtim]

this is the way I'm rolling, cos I'm predicting a price fall for all ruckmen this season. So I see all ruckmen as upgrade targets. If ruckmen need to get more ball around the field to score well, then rucks like Goldy are gunna be cheap, come midseason. IMO some will drop 100k. I will be starting another premo mid instead.

I could be wrong, But if I'm right, I see an advantage to be had.

Im thinking the same thing mate. Who are you running with at the moment

I agree with this. Money saved in the RUC line will be better spent beefing up other lines (e.g. I have Wines at M6, Simpson & Shaw as D1/D2).

Take this how you want but I've done 3 bits of personal analysis that may be helpful:

1) Top 10 rucks are overpriced

The new scoring system means you need to have a hit-to-adv % of 33.33% in order to break even on hit outs. According to Fantasy Freako top 5 rucks for hit-to-adv % since 2012 (min 25 gms) are below:

Hampson (32.2%) - not SC relevant
Jacobs (31.9%) - ave down 1.3% (approx. $8K)
Maric (28.5%) - ave down 3.7% (approx. $20K)
Goldy (28.3) - ave down 4.9% (approx. $30K)
Nic Nat (27.5) - ave down 4.2% (approx. $20K)

Not quite the end of the world, but remember these are the top 5 rucks... my hunch is that the average for all RUCs sits in between 23%-26% which means someone like Mumford could be overpriced by $40K-$60K... assuming all things remain equal between 2014/15

2) Based on NAB data - the correlation between HOs and SC score has weakened

In 2014 the coefficient was 0.722 but based on NAB data it is 0.472. There is still a positive relationship but not as significant as before (note: 1 = perfect correlation).

Interestingly Contested Possessions, Kicks and Handballs still have a higher correlation than HOs in both 2014 and 2015, however in 2015 Goals, Marks and Tackles now have a stronger correlation with SC scores than HOs So those RUC who rely less on HO to generate points will be least affected by the rule change.

3) Based on NAB data and 2014 output - it's predicted only 4 RUC will average more than 100 points

I've built a predictive model based on NAB ruck data (n = 92). By no means is this perfect due to small sample and skewed input data, R-square is 83.2% and it predicted the below scores of the last three NAB games (actual in brackets)

Mummy - 84 (71)
Pyke - 68 (62)
C.Wood - 90 (86)
Rowe - 50 (52)
Blicavs - 85 (92)
M.Clark - 92 (95)
Simpson - 55 (51)
Lycett - 51 (53)
NicNat - 67 (66)
Sandi - 45 (58)
Z.Clarke - 82 (71)

From this I punched in 2014's stats and below is an APPROXIMATE prediction (+/- 5-10 points) of 2015 RUC scores and a ballpark of how much they stand to lose

S.Mart - 105.9 (-$31k)
Sauce - 104.2 (-$60K)
Mummy - 102.1 (-$65K)
Sandi - 102.0 (-$32K)
Goldy - 97.0 (-$53K)
Ryder - 94.1 (-$38K)
Maric - 90.9 (-$47K)
Lobbe - 90.4 (-$55K)
Nic Nat - 88.4 (-$12K)
Minson - 87.2 (-$32K)

SO... what's this all mean...

I've wasted far too much time tonight. Take this with a grain of salt - just as NAB performances are not always representative of actual games neither is the input data that informed the above.

That said, it gives me enough confidence to go with Lycett and TBC (pending ASADA) as these guys are actually predicted to make cash (not much) and my gut tells me their output is set to increase this year (Lycett due to natural progression, TBC due to health and being #1)

Will both be keepers? Maybe Lycett as F6 (hopefully F7) by season's end but who knows. If for no other reason I have to go light in my RUC just to see how wrong I am

[GoLions]

Could not give two showers and a pull of a dog's dick how premos go in the NAB

Goldy struggled first half of last year with shoulder injury and North not playing him as sole ruck. Averaged like close to 120 or something ridiculous once he was 100% and sole ruck. So taking into account that rucks will take a hit in scoring, but that Goldy would've been under-priced before the scoring changes, he's priced at around what he'll score pretty much.

NicNat can avg 110 or so if fully fit and firing, priced way under that, so could increase in price easily.

Minson had a shower year, if he gets back to his 2013 form will increase.

Maric could increase slightly.

Mummy is Mummy, Jacobs has good enough HTA numbers. Sandi is still a beast.

Unless Belly is able to play round 1, I'm going set and forget in the rucks. And even then I may make him F3 instead and go Maric to Sauce.