Rico's Advice Thread 2015

[Ricochet]

Whilst I follow your reasoning about option 2 (paying a bit more) in all probability they will need to be upgraded in any event (so why invest so much) but I suppose you could upgrade quicker as the price difference would be less than if you went with Option 1.  At least with this strategy you have a better chance of picking up a bolter and not feel guilty about sideways trading one of the so-called premiums  ::).

Yeh the main reason behind option 2 it is that this year they will only need to be a top 20-25 defender and still be not that far behind the top 10. So if you can pick up a guy for 300-400k that can push into that 85-90 mark and end up as your D5-D6 then you won't need to upgrade him. Just because there aren't enough defenders this year that will go 95+

Every year we look at our predicted top 10 players from every position, but in defence this year there isn't much gap between the top 6-7 and the next 20 boys.

[barlowlove]

Hey Rico, loving the thread its great reading. Just wanted your thoughts on:
I'm currently running 6 back premiums, with Newnes sitting at D6. Do you think it's worth downgrading one (at the moment I have Kelly who I'm not that sold on), in order to upgrade Zac Smith to Goldy and upgrade a basement priced mid rookie to NVB (for M5)? I currently don't have any mid rookies above $150k in order to fit the 6 back prems
Thanks mate!!

[Ricochet]

Hey Rico, loving the thread its great reading. Just wanted your thoughts on:
I'm currently running 6 back premiums, with Newnes sitting at D6. Do you think it's worth downgrading one (at the moment I have Kelly who I'm not that sold on), in order to upgrade Zac Smith to Goldy and upgrade a basement priced mid rookie to NVB (for M5)? I currently don't have any mid rookies above $150k in order to fit the 6 back prems
Thanks mate!!

Yes mate I would do that in a heartbeat. Goldy will be a top end premo, Kelly is a semi risky pick given age, and you're quite strong in defence as it is. Yep do it

[Big Mac]

Are you starting Bellchambers? Why/Why not? If you don't have him, what is your plan if one of your rucks is out for 1-2 weeks?

[barlowlove]

I guess the only thing stopping me is the lack of cheap defenders... Thoughts on Zac Jones if whitecross doesn't come up?

[Ricochet]

Are you starting Bellchambers? Why/Why not? If you don't have him, what is your plan if one of your rucks is out for 1-2 weeks?

Hey man, yep I am. Currently have Maric and NicNat with Belly up fwd. But I'll strongly reconsider if a decent rookie ruck pops up.

My reasons are

Hey man, I'll start with Belly :)

1. At 302k he only has to average 82 to make 140k-ish - He has proven he can average 80+ and 85+ twice in the past. So he is seriously underpriced
2. He has had his injury concerns in the past, but is currently completing a full preseason
3. When rucking without Ryder he has averaged 101 in 2012 and 90 in 2013. Now Giles has come in. Even if Giles plays, Belly will still get more midfield time than he has previously while sharing the rucking with Ryder, even if they are sharing the duties.
4. The new ruck rule means that most rucks will take a massive scoring hit. Starting with cheaper rucks that will increase in price allows you to close the gap between top end premo rucks even further. Belly will make you money, while guys like Goldy should drop. Meaning that not only will Belly make you 150k, but with a price drop from the top end premos, the real figre could be 200-250k+. 
5. Also on the new rucking rule. Belly's hitout-to-advantage rate was 29.7% and was better than Goldy, Lobbe, Minson, Mummy and Nic Nat. So he shouldn't be as affected by it.
6. The only major cross against his name in my eyes, is the ASADA case man. In which case its just a wait and see for now. Latest articles are saying a verdict may not come down until April. Wouldn't be surprised if the was dragged out further, or if Essendon challenged further.

[Ricochet]

I guess the only thing stopping me is the lack of cheap defenders... Thoughts on Zac Jones if whitecross doesn't come up?

He has been thrown around a fair bit but not sure where he fits in at Swans and didn't make the squad against Brissie this wkend. If Whitex doesn't get up for RD1 then I'll look at Smedts. But expecting a few others to pop up.
Just a wait and see at this stage mate until later in NAB, where we should get some stronger teams being fielded and a better idea of which rookies fit in and where

[Nige]

Hey Rico, if you check out my latest team (which can be seen below), I recently dropped Dane Swan to Patrick Karnezis which now makes Mitch Clark my F4 by price. I think this is a sound strategy given the wealth of rookie priced options in the forwards this year.

B.Smith, M.Hibberd, S.Hurn, S.Fisher, H.Lumumba, B.Whitecross (M.Dick, A.Saad)
G.Ablett, T.Rockliff, M.Priddis, A.Treloar, N. Van Berlo, S.Biggs, B.Boekhorst, N.Freeman (I.Heeney, A.Vandenberg, K.Lambert)
S.Mumford, I.Maric (T.Nankervis)
B.Deledio, B.Goddard, D.Martin, M.Clark, P.Karnezis, J.Hogan (J.Steele, J.Lonie)

The benefit of this is that it allowed me to add another solid option to my backs in Shannon Hurn, which now makes Brendan Whitecross my D6. It's also allowed me to turn Michael Barlow into Tom Rockliff.

For reference, here is the what it looked like before the aforementioned moves.

D: B.Smith, M.Hibberd, S.Fisher, H.Lumumba, B.Whitecross, Z.Jones (M.Dick, B.Maynard)
M: G.Ablett, M.Priddis, M.Barlow, A.Treloar, N.Van Berlo, S.Biggs, B.Boekhorst, N.Freeman (I.Heeney, A.Vandenberg, J.Steele)
R: S.Mumford, I.Maric (T.Nankervis)
F: B.Deledio, B.Goddard, D.Martin, D.Swan, M.Clark, J.Hogan (H.Goddard, C.Daniel)

With all that said, the question is whether this is the right move?

[Ricochet]

Hey Rico, if you check out my latest team (which can be seen below), I recently dropped Dane Swan to Patrick Karnezis which now makes Mitch Clark my F4 by price. I think this is a sound strategy given the wealth of rookie priced options in the forwards this year.

B.Smith, M.Hibberd, S.Hurn, S.Fisher, H.Lumumba, B.Whitecross (M.Dick, A.Saad)
G.Ablett, T.Rockliff, M.Priddis, A.Treloar, N. Van Berlo, S.Biggs, B.Boekhorst, N.Freeman (I.Heeney, A.Vandenberg, K.Lambert)
S.Mumford, I.Maric (T.Nankervis)
B.Deledio, B.Goddard, D.Martin, M.Clark, P.Karnezis, J.Hogan (J.Steele, J.Lonie)

The benefit of this is that it allowed me to add another solid option to my backs in Shannon Hurn, which now makes Brendan Whitecross my D6. It's also allowed me to turn Michael Barlow into Tom Rockliff.

For reference, here is the what it looked like before the aforementioned moves.

D: B.Smith, M.Hibberd, S.Fisher, H.Lumumba, B.Whitecross, Z.Jones (M.Dick, B.Maynard)
M: G.Ablett, M.Priddis, M.Barlow, A.Treloar, N.Van Berlo, S.Biggs, B.Boekhorst, N.Freeman (I.Heeney, A.Vandenberg, J.Steele)
R: S.Mumford, I.Maric (T.Nankervis)
F: B.Deledio, B.Goddard, D.Martin, D.Swan, M.Clark, J.Hogan (H.Goddard, C.Daniel)

With all that said, the question is whether this is the right move?

Hey man sorry I couldn't get back to you last night. Lets have a look

Definitely the right move in my opinion. My conly question would be maybe keeping Swan and dropping someone like Goddard instead. Just because I can see Swan averaging similar, if not more, for a much cheaper price. Also who knows what Goddard will be playing with in terms of teammates come round 1.

But yeh the structure change of dropping one fwd to upgrade the other lines is perfect.

[DPC]

Hey Rico,

Another one for you - if I was to swap one of my 3 prem forwards (Franklin, Dusty and Swan) out for Lycett which one would you go for?  I suspect you will say Franklin but thought I'd ask.  I know you're a fan of Bellchambers and that would actually help me retain the three prems - but I'm interested in your opinion on Lycett?

[Ricochet]

Hey Rico,

Another one for you - if I was to swap one of my 3 prem forwards (Franklin, Dusty and Swan) out for Lycett which one would you go for?  I suspect you will say Franklin but thought I'd ask.  I know you're a fan of Bellchambers and that would actually help me retain the three prems - but I'm interested in your opinion on Lycett?

No a fan of Lycett at this stage mate. I reckon Sinclair will eventually overtake him and probably would have this year if he didn't injury himself last week, so Lycett does have that going for him atm.

Lycett will need to improve on a 78ave by 20+ pts to make him an a) keeper or b) make you over 130k+
His HTA% isn't great either at 19%, which ranks him as the 4th lowest of the top 50 hitout winners. This means he will suffer under the new ruck rule
He did average 97 without Cox last year, but his 95+ scores last year were against GC, Pies, Melbourne, and GC. Who are either weak teams or have weak/inexperienced ruckl
Also that 97ave is from 5-6 games, which is a way too small sample ot base anything on

I'd keep your three premos man

[DPC]

Hey Rico,

Another one for you - if I was to swap one of my 3 prem forwards (Franklin, Dusty and Swan) out for Lycett which one would you go for?  I suspect you will say Franklin but thought I'd ask.  I know you're a fan of Bellchambers and that would actually help me retain the three prems - but I'm interested in your opinion on Lycett?

No a fan of Lycett at this stage mate. I reckon Sinclair will eventually overtake him and probably would have this year if he didn't injury himself last week, so Lycett does have that going for him atm.

Lycett will need to improve on a 78ave by 20+ pts to make him an a) keeper or b) make you over 130k+
His HTA% isn't great either at 19%, which ranks him as the 4th lowest of the top 50 hitout winners. This means he will suffer under the new ruck rule
He did average 97 without Cox last year, but his 95+ scores last year were against GC, Pies, Melbourne, and GC. Who are either weak teams or have weak/inexperienced ruckl
Also that 97ave is from 5-6 games, which is a way too small sample ot base anything on

I'd keep your three premos man

Thanks Rico, its great to be able to bounce stuff of you and get some sensible feedback.  (I say that to my wife to but I don't mean it   ::)).

[Ricochet]

Hey Rico,

Another one for you - if I was to swap one of my 3 prem forwards (Franklin, Dusty and Swan) out for Lycett which one would you go for?  I suspect you will say Franklin but thought I'd ask.  I know you're a fan of Bellchambers and that would actually help me retain the three prems - but I'm interested in your opinion on Lycett?

No a fan of Lycett at this stage mate. I reckon Sinclair will eventually overtake him and probably would have this year if he didn't injury himself last week, so Lycett does have that going for him atm.

Lycett will need to improve on a 78ave by 20+ pts to make him an a) keeper or b) make you over 130k+
His HTA% isn't great either at 19%, which ranks him as the 4th lowest of the top 50 hitout winners. This means he will suffer under the new ruck rule
He did average 97 without Cox last year, but his 95+ scores last year were against GC, Pies, Melbourne, and GC. Who are either weak teams or have weak/inexperienced ruckl
Also that 97ave is from 5-6 games, which is a way too small sample ot base anything on

I'd keep your three premos man

Thanks Rico, its great to be able to bounce stuff of you and get some sensible feedback.  (I say that to my wife to but I don't mean it   ::)).

hahahaha

No worries man, happy to help

[Nige]

Hey man sorry I couldn't get back to you last night. Lets have a look

Definitely the right move in my opinion. My conly question would be maybe keeping Swan and dropping someone like Goddard instead. Just because I can see Swan averaging similar, if not more, for a much cheaper price. Also who knows what Goddard will be playing with in terms of teammates come round 1.

But yeh the structure change of dropping one fwd to upgrade the other lines is perfect.

All good!

I've been told about that a few times and I am considering it, but I'm not sure what I would do with the cash.

What do you think would be the best move with the 100k-ish that I'd have?

[Asparagus]

Hey Rico,
Thanks in advance for this thread again this season, always good to get constructive advice.
Would love your thoughts on my team and structure...and rookies obviously will change depending on Rd 1 selections.

Cheers

Backs- Simp,Shaw,Lumuba,Ibbo,Smedts,N.Brown (Hamling,Goddard)

Mids- GAJ,Pend,Jelwood,Ward,Cotch,NVB,Newton,J.Anderson (Biggs,Vandenberg,Lambert)

Rucks- NicNat,Z.Smith (Cox)

Fwds- Buddy,Dusty,Swan,Belly,Clark,Hogan (Karnesis,C.Daniel)

$27,300 left  :D