Rico's Advice Thread 2015

[My Chumps]

Legendary Ric, you're absolutely flowering killing this man, keep it up!

My question is just about Ibbo. I see from your posts you rate him as a good choice this year and from a Freo supporter that's pretty encouraging, but I'm not convinced. Why do you expect him to do well this year? Has he been killing it preseason?

[Ricochet]

can i get your thoughts on my team please.  http://forum.fanfooty.com.au/index.php/topic,100814.0.html

Yep no dramas mate I'll have a look in a sec

[Ringo]

As an unbiased lions supporter how do you see the scoring of Rocky, Reddan, Rich, Beams, Zorko and Christensen this year. Personally I see Rocky and Zorko falling, Rich and Reddan increasing, but the unknown is Beams and Christensen

[GraysFan]

Hey Rico,
2 questions,
1. Bartel/goddard/lids vs crouch/swallow/any mid at 550k
2. who should be the top 3 mids to start with? i currently have gaz, pendles, barlow due to fyfe being injured and thinking selwood and rocky will drop...
what are your thoughts? Thanks man

Hey man, 1. Goddard/Lids mate. Both underpriced and have ability to go 110+. Mid I would strongly consider though would be Cotchin, but he has a lingering hammy issue atm
2. I'm currently running top end mids atm mate. I think there's the 5x 120+ stars and then a gap to the rest. So I'm backing Rocky in to keep his average. But, not many are. So if you're set on not starting him then I think you can't go wrong with that lineup you've listed. GAJ and Pendles are obvious and I'm backing Barlow to hit 115+, so I think he's a ripper pick too.
Are you only running the 3 premo mids?




im currently running 4 premo mids + greene (who i see as a top 10 mid)
my last mid spot im tossing up between ward and sidebutt

my current team is
Def: Simpson, Hibberd, Newnes, Lulumba, Seedsman, WhiteX (Dick, Mckenzie)
Mid: Ablett, Pendles, Barlow, Ward, Greene, Heeney, Boakhurst, Vandenberg (Freeman, Dumont, Krak)
Ruck: NicNat, Burger (Cox)
Fwd Lids, Dusty, Swan, Titch, Clark, Hogan (Steele, Daniel)

Im also tossing up between burger and belly for R2
If i go belly i could upgrade ward to a selwood or fyfe..

P.s i have no idea what ive done with these quote things

[shaker]

Hey Rico in a nutshell Josh Kelly I am tempted to get him think he is going to be a very good player is it just to early this year thoughts ?

[Ricochet]

Legendary Ric, you're absolutely flowering killing this man, keep it up!

My question is just about Ibbo. I see from your posts you rate him as a good choice this year and from a Freo supporter that's pretty encouraging, but I'm not convinced. Why do you expect him to do well this year? Has he been killing it preseason?

Thanks man :) happy to help

Yeh I have a few reasons for liking Ibbo.

The first is more to do with liking midpricers in general in defence.
These was my thoughts on starting only 2-3 true premos and 2-3 mid pricers back there.

A few reasons for it. The first being, like you mentioned, lack of rookies back there. And rookies that will actually score well.

The second is lack of true top end premos. There's 2 boys that are 95+ from last year and I'm not overly confident Malceski can hold his average in a weaker team. Then there's only 6 lads that are 90-95. Of those, Hodge and Burgoyne are seriously getting on, Hibberd has ASADA hanging over him, BSmith will cop a hell of a lot more attention this year, and HShaw is well... Heath Shaw lol. There's too many risks hanging over these guys to start too many of them (I currently have KSimpson, Shaw and Hurn).
After this group there are 26 boys that averaged 80-90 (including Fisher tho who went 92 but is priced at 83). Plus guys like Lumumba, Ibbotson and co who have the ability to go 80+ or higher.

It means that you can have a 20-25th ranked defender and he won't be too far away from the top bracket.

Then on Ibbo.
In the role that Ross has him playing atm, he averaged 94 two years ago. Last year was severely affected by injury though.
He had shoulder surgery in the off season. Shoulders are a short turn around and your still able to complete conditioning programs early on. He has been fully training for over a month now.
Its true though that I expect our other key defenders to determine Ibbo's role. If 3 of Dawson, McPharlin, Silvagni, Johnson are named RD1 then Ibbo should be given the freedom to score well. If only two are named then he may get a lockdown role (but I don't expect us to only name 2 keys).
He's priced at a 64 average, has the ability to go 90+, but only needs to average 82 to a) make 100k and b) jump in that top 20odd bracket of defenders. Which I believe will be perfectly fine this year in defence.

[Ricochet]

As an unbiased lions supporter how do you see the scoring of Rocky, Reddan, Rich, Beams, Zorko and Christensen this year. Personally I see Rocky and Zorko falling, Rich and Reddan increasing, but the unknown is Beams and Christensen

Hey mate, I've always believed that ball magnets don't lose the ability to win the footy, they are either taken away from it (like a coach playing them fwd more), cop more attention from opposition (tagging but also just teams being more aware of them and being tighter on them, or their preparation for the season isn't as good as the year before.

Now these are my thoughts as an outsider looking in, so structure wise I may be way off. But here goes

So looking at Rocky first. He'll be the #2 mid now that Beams has come in. He'll stay in the midfield and won't move fwd. Beams, Hanley(when fit) and Rich will cop a tag before him. And as far as I'm aware he's had a pretty decent preseason. Now I do think he'll drop a little in average, just because it will be nearly impossible to repeat his efforts from last year. And teams will be more aware of him. But I think that may be countered by the strength of your midfield now. The addition of Beams, Christensen and Robbo will mean that your midfield will control games for longer and hold possession for more periods of the game. So basically I can see him dropping maybe 5pts in ave at most, but would not be surprised if he keeps his average up.

On Beams, he'll slot straight in #1 in your midfield. With Hanley out he'll definitely cop the first tag. Even with Hanley back I personally feel most weeks he'll cop it. However I would consider your midfield stronger than Collingwood's 2014 midfield (with Swanny down and spending time fwd, and the youth the Pies sent through the middle). So I wouldn't be surprised if Beams' output remained similar.

I agree that Zorko will be the one that I see dropping. I'd imagine he'd play a lot more fwd, especially when Christensen is up and going. That takes him away from the footy a bit more, and just gives him less opportunity to find easy footy.

Now this one might be way off but I see Redden dropping away a little. Reason is Beams pushes him down from #3 to #4 in the midfield. Robbo comes in, and may not necessarily be a head of him, but the extra rotation could add to it and mean less time for Redden on the ball. Hanley out does help him, but if everyone was fit, I just see Redden dropping slightly. Especially since a hell of a lot of his points come from his inside work and tackling, and you boys simply have so much quality inside now.

Its hard to judge boys coming of serious knee injuries so I'm really not sure what Rich will average. Obviously we know he'll come off half back so should get a lot of cheap footy coming out of defence. But I think we'll really see Rich thrive when Hanley is back in the side. Just really not sure on that one.

And Christensen I think may struggle in his first year, in terms of consistently scoring well. Just because he is coming into a new side and has had a severely interrupted preseason. I'm expecting big things from him in 2016 if he gets through a full preseason


So yeh, they're my thoughts man. Like I said, could be way off with the structure stuff being an outsider

[Ricochet]

Hey Rico,
2 questions,
1. Bartel/goddard/lids vs crouch/swallow/any mid at 550k
2. who should be the top 3 mids to start with? i currently have gaz, pendles, barlow due to fyfe being injured and thinking selwood and rocky will drop...
what are your thoughts? Thanks man

Hey man, 1. Goddard/Lids mate. Both underpriced and have ability to go 110+. Mid I would strongly consider though would be Cotchin, but he has a lingering hammy issue atm
2. I'm currently running top end mids atm mate. I think there's the 5x 120+ stars and then a gap to the rest. So I'm backing Rocky in to keep his average. But, not many are. So if you're set on not starting him then I think you can't go wrong with that lineup you've listed. GAJ and Pendles are obvious and I'm backing Barlow to hit 115+, so I think he's a ripper pick too.
Are you only running the 3 premo mids?

im currently running 4 premo mids + greene (who i see as a top 10 mid)
my last mid spot im tossing up between ward and sidebutt

my current team is
Def: Simpson, Hibberd, Newnes, Lulumba, Seedsman, WhiteX (Dick, Mckenzie)
Mid: Ablett, Pendles, Barlow, Ward, Greene, Heeney, Boakhurst, Vandenberg (Freeman, Dumont, Krak)
Ruck: NicNat, Burger (Cox)
Fwd Lids, Dusty, Swan, Titch, Clark, Hogan (Steele, Daniel)

Im also tossing up between burger and belly for R2
If i go belly i could upgrade ward to a selwood or fyfe..

P.s i have no idea what ive done with these quote things

Haha fixed the quote :P

Ok first I reckon definitely go Belly over Leuey. Leuy coming off that achilles is a concern and he is competing with SMartin. My thooughts on Belly are here http://forum.fanfooty.com.au/index.php/topic,100811.msg1549580.html#msg1549580

Then I would definitely upgrade to Selwood/Fyfe. Probably Greene would be the one. My thoughts on him are below.

Just wondered about people's thoughts on Toby Greene as a genuine midfield premium option.

When he came back from his suspension last year - over the last 9 rounds - he averaged 120.3 and one of those scores was a 63 (his first game back funnily enough).

Considering all of this I am wondering about whether he is deserving of a midfield position.

Yeh he did dominate from RD17 onwards but

Congilio only played up until round 16
Scully only up to round 18
Whitfield only up to round 17

So add those 3 back in, along with Griffen and Greene could be severely hampered. Just something to consider.

[Ricochet]

Hey Rico in a nutshell Josh Kelly I am tempted to get him think he is going to be a very good player is it just to early this year thoughts ?

Hey mate, personally I think its early. Have seen people look at his last 4 weeks and think wow, a 92 average. But it was only a 4 week period and tbh there were only 2 good scores there.

He's priced at a 68 average and will need to average about 88 to make you 100k+. Even is he does his that 88average he still won't be in the top 20 fwds, so you'll need to use a trade to upgrade him.

So unless you see him going 90-95+ to make him a keeper, I would either
a) downgrade to a rookie who will make you 200k from only a 60-65ave (more like 250-300k if they go 70-75)
or b) upgrade to a keeper.

[shaker]

Hey Rico in a nutshell Josh Kelly I am tempted to get him think he is going to be a very good player is it just to early this year thoughts ?

Hey mate, personally I think its early. Have seen people look at his last 4 weeks and think wow, a 92 average. But it was only a 4 week period and tbh there were only 2 good scores there.

He's priced at a 68 average and will need to average about 88 to make you 100k+. Even is he does his that 88average he still won't be in the top 20 fwds, so you'll need to use a trade to upgrade him.

So unless you see him going 90-95+ to make him a keeper, I would either
a) downgrade to a rookie who will make you 200k from only a 60-65ave (more like 250-300k if they go 70-75)
or b) upgrade to a keeper.

Cheers Rico what you say makes sense but just have feeling about this guy lets see what he does in the NAB cup  ;)

[Ricochet]

Hey Rico in a nutshell Josh Kelly I am tempted to get him think he is going to be a very good player is it just to early this year thoughts ?

Hey mate, personally I think its early. Have seen people look at his last 4 weeks and think wow, a 92 average. But it was only a 4 week period and tbh there were only 2 good scores there.

He's priced at a 68 average and will need to average about 88 to make you 100k+. Even is he does his that 88average he still won't be in the top 20 fwds, so you'll need to use a trade to upgrade him.

So unless you see him going 90-95+ to make him a keeper, I would either
a) downgrade to a rookie who will make you 200k from only a 60-65ave (more like 250-300k if they go 70-75)
or b) upgrade to a keeper.

Cheers Rico what you say makes sense but just have feeling about this guy lets see what he does in the NAB cup  ;)

Some times you just have to go with your gut mate :) Good luck

[DPC]

Hi Rico, I'm tossing up the idea of going with one or two $200-300k defenders as D5/6 if no rookies emerge instead of the more expensive mid-pricers that may not end up being keepers - hopefully make as much coin as possible and upgrade asap.  Two I have my eye on are Clancee Pearce and Jamie Macmillan.

Is this a flawed strategy?  and if not what is your opinion on these two and are there others in this bracket you prefer?

[Ricochet]

Hi Rico, I'm tossing up the idea of going with one or two $200-300k defenders as D5/6 if no rookies emerge instead of the more expensive mid-pricers that may not end up being keepers - hopefully make as much coin as possible and upgrade asap.  Two I have my eye on are Clancee Pearce and Jamie Macmillan.

Is this a flawed strategy?  and if not what is your opinion on these two and are there others in this bracket you prefer?

Definitely not a flawed strategy mate. I'm looking at something similar.

My reasons for looking at these midpricers are

I'm all for it atm! I'm running 3 premos, Lumumba and Ibbo, and then Whitecross.

A few reasons for it. The first being, like you mentioned, lack of rookies back there. And rookies that will actually score well.

The second is lack of true top end premos. There's 2 boys that are 95+ from last year and I'm not overly confident Malceski can hold his average in a weaker team. Then there's only 6 lads that are 90-95. Of those, Hodge and Burgoyne are seriously getting on, Hibberd has ASADA hanging over him, BSmith will cop a hell of a lot more attention this year, and HShaw is well... Heath Shaw lol. There's too many risks hanging over these guys to start too many of them (I currently have KSimpson, Shaw and Hurn).
After this group there are 26 boys that averaged 80-90 (including Fisher tho who went 92 but is priced at 83). Plus guys like Lumumba, Ibbotson and co who have the ability to go 80+ or higher.

It means that you can have a 20-25th ranked defender and he won't be too far away from the top bracket.

Now I reckon there are two types of midpricers we need to look at
The first are those that we think can score like premos... Ibbotson fits this, as he has gone 94+ before
The second type, need to make you just as much more as a rookie would. Which is a around 150k imo

So we look at Macmillan at 270k. He's priced at 50ave. So in order to make you 150k+ he'll need to average 79+.
He's only averaged more than 63 once (73 in 2013).
I'm not sold on him

Looking at Clancee. This is a tough one because I rate him very highly and think he should be a lock in our 22 due to his elite kicking. Reality is though, he isn't a lock in our best 22. He's more like 18-25, meaning there's a good chance he could start, cop vests or even get dropped. Although he has come back in ripper shape so hopefully he can cement that spot.
His price is similar to Macmillan, so will need to hit that 80ish mark to make you enough cash.
The thing is, Clancee is a ball magnet, always has been. When he averaged 91 he was given the freedom to run through the middle. Since that year though, Ross has made him much more accountable and his role weekly will change.
I'd be more keen on Clancee over Macmillan, but need to see more during the last few games of NAB.

Around that price though, you can either go cheaper to boys that may not score as well but at least will generate cash (guys like Smedts at 215k, Whitecorss at 198k) or go up to guys that have greater scoring ability (Henderson at 319k, Geary at 332k, Ibbo at 342k, Yeo at 353k, Seedsman at 363k).

Personally I like the second option, going up a level and am looking at Geary and Ibbo. Henderson's role is still unclear so need to keep and eye on him, and Seedsman is still battling a hip injury.

[Ricochet]

I would also keep an eye Bewick around that price mate. Has always had talent and a great running ability, just lacked size. One of those boys whose body was similar to someone 2-3 years younger than him. But he's been in the system for quite a few years now.
Ringo and a few Brissie boys have posted reports of him playing off a halfback line, if so then I'll be looking at him very closely.

[DPC]

I would also keep an eye Bewick around that price mate. Has always had talent and a great running ability, just lacked size. One of those boys whose body was similar to someone 2-3 years younger than him. But he's been in the system for quite a few years now.
Ringo and a few Brissie boys have posted reports of him playing off a halfback line, if so then I'll be looking at him very closely.

Thanks Rico, appreciate the thorough response and Bewick is a new one for me.  I confess I wasn't aiming as high as $150k profit though that would be welcome  :).

Whilst I follow your reasoning about option 2 (paying a bit more) in all probability they will need to be upgraded in any event (so why invest so much) but I suppose you could upgrade quicker as the price difference would be less than if you went with Option 1.  At least with this strategy you have a better chance of picking up a bolter and not feel guilty about sideways trading one of the so-called premiums  ::).