Rico's Advice Thread 2015

[Ricochet]

Hey Rico, would appreciate thoughts on which is better, can already tell you rather tean 2 because it's more balanced but I am liking the amount of forward rookies. Cheers champ

D: K. Simpson, H. Shaw, M.Hibberd, S. Hurn, J. Newnes, J. Lever (D. Mckenzie, H. Goddard)
M: G.Ablett, S. Pendlebury, J. Kennedy, M. BarlowP. Dangerfield, N.Van Berlo, P. Cripps, N. Cockatoo (B.Boekhorst, N.Freeman (A.Vandenberg)
R: T. Goldstein, N. Naitanui (P. Lucey)
F: L. Franklin, D.Swan, C. Salem, M.Clark, J. Hogan, J. Laverde (J. Steele, P. Karnezis)

D: K. Simpson, H. Shaw, M.Hibberd, S. Hurn, J. Newnes, J. Lever (D. Mckenzie, H. Goddard)
M: G.Ablett, S. Pendlebury, J. Kennedy, P. Dangerfield, N.Van Berlo, P. Cripps,J. De Goey/S. Biggs N. Cockatoo (B.Boekhorst, N.Freeman (A.Vandenberg)
R: T. Goldstein, N. Naitanui (P. Lucey)
F: L. Franklin, D. MartinD.Swan, C. Salem, M.Clark, J. Hogan (J. Steele, J. Laverde)

How much cash do you have left with each side man?
I really like the strategy of more fwd rookies up front but I think only having 2 premo's in that line is asking for trouble. I currently have 2 premos and TMitchell. It's a tough one because right now there looks to be so many forward rookies this year. You can add Lambert, Karkouer and Membrey to your list as well.

But at this stage I would run with team 2 mate, only because I think some of these popular rookies may become less solid as we get closer to round 1.

[T Dog]

Hey Ric

Just a view on the NVB, M. Clarke and J. Hogan selections that most teams seem to have.

Can These 3 be left out of a team as a POD tactic? I get the price thing but with so many similar looking teams is it worth risking these 3 instead of the proven guns?

[Nige]

My backs are currently B.Smith, M.Hibberd, S.Fisher, H.Lumumba, B.Whitecross, Z.Jones (M.Dick, B.Maynard)

I think it's either madness or brilliance, which one and why?

Also, a lot of people are buying into the Tom Bellchambers hype and I'm not one of them. Make your best case as to why I should slot him in.

[Ricochet]

Hey Ric

Just a view on the NVB, M. Clarke and J. Hogan selections that most teams seem to have.

Can These 3 be left out of a team as a POD tactic? I get the price thing but with so many similar looking teams is it worth risking these 3 instead of the proven guns?

Hey legend,

Hogan is a must mate. He is nearly basement price and a gun. He dominated VFL level and is finishing off this preseason strongly by all reports. In my eyes, he is THE most important player on the Demons' list. Everyone in SC should have him as he has solid JS, has had a few years in the system, and is only 130k.

I look at my rookies I'm fielding in my midfield and when you get to the 3rd or 4th one, you start questioning their JS. This is why I think NVB is super important this year. He has the JS needed for your first starting rookie. Before his last year in 2013, he had averaged basically 77+ for six years. If he hits similar your looking at 200k profit. A lock imo mate

Clark is probably the one you can do without. Came back fat as a whale and has battled with a calf issue. So there is a risk with his body. I have him in my side but its a watch and see through NAB for Clark imo.

I'm of the view that you always pick the best rookies available, then stack your premos around them. I'd be looking at POD's in your midfield premo picks and down back. The fwd line should be pretty safe this year.

So, in my eyes Hogan and NVB are in the top 5 best rookies this year. Clark has his risks so can understand you questioning him. Lock Hogan and NVB in and keep an eye on Clark through NAB.

[eaglesman]

Jack Martin
Higgins
Kolodjashnij

Kolo is a better pick than Higgins imo. He has been earmarked to play more on the wing this year and is rated very highly. I see him averaging similar to Higgins, but cheaper. Higgins is also coming into a new team, that is much stronger than the Bullies. So don't be surprised to see him in and out of the Roos side this year

JMart is my pick though. Cheapest of the the 3 and I think he'll average the most. The kid will be a superstar and learning from the best in the business (GAJ). What possie on the field are you looking at filling? Only question it because it looks like we'll many forward rookie options this year and I'd push strongly for a Guns and Rooks strategy.

Well I have crouch at m6 and belly at r2...
But out of these 3 I think I may only back Martin and kolo in ... Go crouch to acres/NVB/biggs/degoey given me 280k ... Then go belly to maric ... Higgins to hurn

[T Dog]

Hey Ric

Just a view on the NVB, M. Clarke and J. Hogan selections that most teams seem to have.

Can These 3 be left out of a team as a POD tactic? I get the price thing but with so many similar looking teams is it worth risking these 3 instead of the proven guns?

Hey legend,

Hogan is a must mate. He is nearly basement price and a gun. He dominated VFL level and is finishing off this preseason strongly by all reports. In my eyes, he is THE most important player on the Demons' list. Everyone in SC should have him as he has solid JS, has had a few years in the system, and is only 130k.

I look at my rookies I'm fielding in my midfield and when you get to the 3rd or 4th one, you start questioning their JS. This is why I think NVB is super important this year. He has the JS needed for your first starting rookie. Before his last year in 2013, he had averaged basically 77+ for six years. If he hits similar your looking at 200k profit. A lock imo mate

Clark is probably the one you can do without. Came back fat as a whale and has battled with a calf issue. So there is a risk with his body. I have him in my side but its a watch and see through NAB for Clark imo.

I'm of the view that you always pick the best rookies available, then stack your premos around them. I'd be looking at POD's in your midfield premo picks and down back. The fwd line should be pretty safe this year.

So, in my eyes Hogan and NVB are in the top 5 best rookies this year. Clark has his risks so can understand you questioning him. Lock Hogan and NVB in and keep an eye on Clark through NAB.

Thanks Rico. Sensible as always. Clark just makes me very nervous but options aren't clear yet.  Karnezis and Krakouer may fire  ;)

[Ricochet]

My backs are currently B.Smith, M.Hibberd, S.Fisher, H.Lumumba, B.Whitecross, Z.Jones (M.Dick, B.Maynard)

I think it's either madness or brilliance, which one and why?

Also, a lot of people are buying into the Tom Bellchambers hype and I'm not one of them. Make your best case as to why I should slot him in.

Hey man, I'll start with Belly :)

1. At 302k he only has to average 82 to make 140k-ish - He has proven he can average 80+ and 85+ twice in the past. So he is seriously underpriced
2. He has had his injury concerns in the past, but is currently completing a full preseason
3. When rucking without Ryder he has averaged 101 in 2012 and 90 in 2013. Now Giles has come in. Even if Giles plays, Belly will still get more midfield time than he has previously while sharing the rucking with Ryder, even if they are sharing the duties.
4. The new ruck rule means that most rucks will take a massive scoring hit. Starting with cheaper rucks that will increase in price allows you to close the gap between top end premo rucks even further. Belly will make you money, while guys like Goldy should drop. Meaning that not only will Belly make you 150k, but with a price drop from the top end premos, the real figre could be 200-250k+. 
5. Also on the new rucking rule. Belly's hitout-to-advantage rate was 29.7% and was better than Goldy, Lobbe, Minson, Mummy and Nic Nat. So he shouldn't be as affected by it.
6. The only major cross against his name in my eyes, is the ASADA case man. In which case its just a wait and see for now. Latest articles are saying a verdict may not come down until April. Wouldn't be surprised if the was dragged out further, or if Essendon challenged further.


Ok that backline.
Love your top end premos in Smith and Hibberd. Personally I'm staying away from Smith because I think he'll cop a hell of a lot more attention after his AA year. But he's still a solid pick. Lumumba is a great pick also. i'm sold that he can creep into the top 10 backs, especially if he continues with that midfield role. Personally I'm not a fan of Fisher. At his price he HAS to produce premo numbers for a full year. If he was a midpricer then he would be worth the risk. But you're spending 450k on a guy that hasn't player over 15 games a year in 4 years. Very high risk, little reward. Just my views on him though.
In terms of structure, I don't think there are enough defensive rookies that a) have good JS or b) will score well enough to be anything higher than D6. So mainly looking at Whitecross at D5 mate. I personally don't like to see him any higher than D6. If you can, I'd look at an Ibbotson or someone along those lines at D5.

Hope that was helpful mate. Some of it was just personal thoughts on some players (like Fisher), so stick to your guns if your sold on them :)

[Ricochet]

Jack Martin
Higgins
Kolodjashnij

Kolo is a better pick than Higgins imo. He has been earmarked to play more on the wing this year and is rated very highly. I see him averaging similar to Higgins, but cheaper. Higgins is also coming into a new team, that is much stronger than the Bullies. So don't be surprised to see him in and out of the Roos side this year

JMart is my pick though. Cheapest of the the 3 and I think he'll average the most. The kid will be a superstar and learning from the best in the business (GAJ). What possie on the field are you looking at filling? Only question it because it looks like we'll many forward rookie options this year and I'd push strongly for a Guns and Rooks strategy.

Well I have crouch at m6 and belly at r2...
But out of these 3 I think I may only back Martin and kolo in ... Go crouch to acres/NVB/biggs/degoey given me 280k ... Then go belly to maric ... Higgins to hurn

Yeh I don't mind those changes at all mate. Although I am kinda sold on Belly. Would definitely go Crouch down, and Higgins up though

[Ricochet]

Hey Ric

Just a view on the NVB, M. Clarke and J. Hogan selections that most teams seem to have.

Can These 3 be left out of a team as a POD tactic? I get the price thing but with so many similar looking teams is it worth risking these 3 instead of the proven guns?

Hey legend,

Hogan is a must mate. He is nearly basement price and a gun. He dominated VFL level and is finishing off this preseason strongly by all reports. In my eyes, he is THE most important player on the Demons' list. Everyone in SC should have him as he has solid JS, has had a few years in the system, and is only 130k.

I look at my rookies I'm fielding in my midfield and when you get to the 3rd or 4th one, you start questioning their JS. This is why I think NVB is super important this year. He has the JS needed for your first starting rookie. Before his last year in 2013, he had averaged basically 77+ for six years. If he hits similar your looking at 200k profit. A lock imo mate

Clark is probably the one you can do without. Came back fat as a whale and has battled with a calf issue. So there is a risk with his body. I have him in my side but its a watch and see through NAB for Clark imo.

I'm of the view that you always pick the best rookies available, then stack your premos around them. I'd be looking at POD's in your midfield premo picks and down back. The fwd line should be pretty safe this year.

So, in my eyes Hogan and NVB are in the top 5 best rookies this year. Clark has his risks so can understand you questioning him. Lock Hogan and NVB in and keep an eye on Clark through NAB.

Thanks Rico. Sensible as always. Clark just makes me very nervous but options aren't clear yet.  Karnezis and Krakouer may fire  ;)

No worries at all man. Yep fwd boys on my radar that look like solid picks atm are Hogan, Salem, Karnezis, Krakouer, Lambert, Steele, Clark.

[DPC]

Hey Rico,

What order would you rate Salem, Membrey and Clark?

I'm thinking on using the three of them F4-F6 (with Swan at F3) depending on what other rookies come up.

[Ricochet]

Hey Rico,

What order would you rate Salem, Membrey and Clark?

I'm thinking on using the three of them F4-F6 (with Swan at F3) depending on what other rookies come up.

If Clark gets through all of NAB and doesn't seem to be any injury issues then
Clark > Salem > Membrey

A fit Clark is clear above the other two. Salem playing off halfback has greater scoring potential then Membrey, so worth the extra bit of cash at this stage. NAB could change everything though

[GraysFan]

Hey Rico,
2 questions,
1. Bartel/goddard/lids vs crouch/swallow/any mid at 550k
2. who should be the top 3 mids to start with? i currently have gaz, pendles, barlow due to fyfe being injured and thinking selwood and rocky will drop...
what are your thoughts? Thanks man

[Nige]

Hey man, I'll start with Belly :)

1. At 302k he only has to average 82 to make 140k-ish - He has proven he can average 80+ and 85+ twice in the past. So he is seriously underpriced
2. He has had his injury concerns in the past, but is currently completing a full preseason
3. When rucking without Ryder he has averaged 101 in 2012 and 90 in 2013. Now Giles has come in. Even if Giles plays, Belly will still get more midfield time than he has previously while sharing the rucking with Ryder, even if they are sharing the duties.
4. The new ruck rule means that most rucks will take a massive scoring hit. Starting with cheaper rucks that will increase in price allows you to close the gap between top end premo rucks even further. Belly will make you money, while guys like Goldy should drop. Meaning that not only will Belly make you 150k, but with a price drop from the top end premos, the real figre could be 200-250k+. 
5. Also on the new rucking rule. Belly's hitout-to-advantage rate was 29.7% and was better than Goldy, Lobbe, Minson, Mummy and Nic Nat. So he shouldn't be as affected by it.
6. The only major cross against his name in my eyes, is the ASADA case man. In which case its just a wait and see for now. Latest articles are saying a verdict may not come down until April. Wouldn't be surprised if the was dragged out further, or if Essendon challenged further.

Interesting, that is a bloody case to pick him. I'm not anywhere near keen enough to pick him as a ruck and I don't see why it's worth slotting him in to a forward line with 4 premos who will be top 10 and 2 rookie priced guys (Clark and Hogan) who should generate more cash than Belly (I'm confident that if they stay fit, they could both could fatten up by 150k).

Wouldn't be the first time I've missed the boat, but I've also made the mistake of buying into the flavour of the month. Probably one of the most interesting picks this year for sure.

Ok that backline.
Love your top end premos in Smith and Hibberd. Personally I'm staying away from Smith because I think he'll cop a hell of a lot more attention after his AA year. But he's still a solid pick. Lumumba is a great pick also. i'm sold that he can creep into the top 10 backs, especially if he continues with that midfield role. Personally I'm not a fan of Fisher. At his price he HAS to produce premo numbers for a full year. If he was a midpricer then he would be worth the risk. But you're spending 450k on a guy that hasn't player over 15 games a year in 4 years. Very high risk, little reward. Just my views on him though.
In terms of structure, I don't think there are enough defensive rookies that a) have good JS or b) will score well enough to be anything higher than D6. So mainly looking at Whitecross at D5 mate. I personally don't like to see him any higher than D6. If you can, I'd look at an Ibbotson or someone along those lines at D5.

Hope that was helpful mate. Some of it was just personal thoughts on some players (like Fisher), so stick to your guns if your sold on them :)

I'm dead keen on Smith, if anything I'd turf Hibberd for somebody better, but he's probably as safe as Smith in my book. I want Eski, but that's not a viable option. I've been pretty set on Lumumba this whole time, the rest of you are bandwagoners, except maybe T Dog (there's some serious man love there I reckon) ;). For others, there are options like Newnes who people are banking on taking the next step (which is fair enoug). fFor guys like me, we're banking on Fisher doing what we know he can. It's a flip of the coin there, young or old, take ya pick! Whitecross was supposed to Waters, but we know how that ended. Still, I think Whitecross should be a somewhat safe bet. Zak Jones is the interesting one for me, if he doesn't take that spot in the Sydney side, he'll have to go, but I feel like he will. I'm already taking the risk on pretty much every one of my defenders to some degree, not sure whether a gamble on Ibbo is worth it.

Thanks for the response though mate.  8)

[Ricochet]

Hey Rico,
2 questions,
1. Bartel/goddard/lids vs crouch/swallow/any mid at 550k
2. who should be the top 3 mids to start with? i currently have gaz, pendles, barlow due to fyfe being injured and thinking selwood and rocky will drop...
what are your thoughts? Thanks man

Hey man, 1. Goddard/Lids mate. Both underpriced and have ability to go 110+. Mid I would strongly consider though would be Cotchin, but he has a lingering hammy issue atm
2. I'm currently running top end mids atm mate. I think there's the 5x 120+ stars and then a gap to the rest. So I'm backing Rocky in to keep his average. But, not many are. So if you're set on not starting him then I think you can't go wrong with that lineup you've listed. GAJ and Pendles are obvious and I'm backing Barlow to hit 115+, so I think he's a ripper pick too.
Are you only running the 3 premo mids?

My full thoughts on Barlow are

Thoughts on Barlow?

A lock for a 115+ average imo. Battled through the start of last year with a knee injury and spent a lot of time off half fwd, working high up the ground. Started the year with a bang, 132 and 117 before hurting his knee. He then came back in round 7 with an 88, followed by an 82. He averaged 114 for the rest of the year. Currently getting through preseason and will never get tagged

Second year in a row of 110+ ave. Should build from here

You know what you get with Barlow. After the five 120+ stars, he's the next best pick

[djzontheball@gmail.com]

can i get your thoughts on my team please.  http://forum.fanfooty.com.au/index.php/topic,100814.0.html