Daniel Wells

[Bully]

Hasn't been much discussion about Wells lately so I thought I'd throw up some numbers.

He's priced to average 60 odd yet ignoring his injury riddled 2014 he's averaged 96, 99 & 104. Taking into account his sub affected game in 2013 his average actually nudges 99, which effectively gives him a 100+ average from 2011-2013. Over that period he played all but 4 games and has notched up 29 tons with high scores of 180, 175 & 152 (all in 2011). In the 2013 season only 4 of his scores were under 80 and he is also a proven scorer in losses averaging 99.

Daniel Rich is obviously the flavour of the month but I much prefer Wells. Given that I may go in with a 5 premo defense I think DW could be the answer at M5 or M6.

[honza]

The problem with this sort of pick is someone goes and averages 90+ for 200k.

[Bully]

The problem with this sort of pick is someone goes and averages 90+ for 200k.

Can't see any standout candidates to be honest. NVB will average 70-80, Biggs is still an unknown quantity, Brayshaw may be rested from time to time, Cripps hasn't yet cemented his place & Petracca is out for the year. The upside of the Wells selection is significant, particularly if he starts strongly.

[kilbluff1985]

nope gets tagged out of games to easily and goes missing

doesn't have a high ceiling either his highest is like 125

[kilbluff1985]

The problem with this sort of pick is someone goes and averages 90+ for 200k.

Can't see any standout candidates to be honest. NVB will average 70-80, Biggs is still an unknown quantity, Brayshaw may be rested from time to time, Cripps hasn't yet cemented his place & Petracca is out for the year. The upside of the Wells selection is significant, particularly if he starts strongly.

Matt Crouch will average more then Wells

[RaisyDaisy]

Looks like you have already convinced yourself. Are you just seeking validation on your thoughts?

Everything you say is valid, and is worthy of being considered, but personally, I just don't touch mid-pricers unless I believe they can turn into keepers.

I'd be interested to see what combination's your toying with. Eg/ Player X and Wells vs 2 Players, then break down the point potentials, future trades required etc

[RaisyDaisy]

doesn't have a high ceiling either his highest is like 125

Might want to reread the OP ;)

[Bully]

nope gets tagged out of games to easily and goes missing

doesn't have a high ceiling either his highest is like 125

He scored 12 tons in 2013 with 16 scores over 90. His ceiling is high if he gets his hands on the ball, he doesn't need huge possession tallies to break the ton, he has in fact passed 130 on 7 occasions since 2011.

At 361k I think he needs to be considered, if it's a choice between Biggs or any other 200k players I'd pick Wells and pay the extra.

Looks like you have already convinced yourself. Are you just seeking validation on your thoughts?

Everything you say is valid, and is worthy of being considered, but personally, I just don't touch mid-pricers unless I believe they can turn into keepers.

I'd be interested to see what combination's your toying with. Eg/ Player X and Wells vs 2 Players, then break down the point potentials, future trades required etc

Rocky/Fyfe & Wells versus Griff & Cotch. By going Fyfe I could also stitch up D5 with Hurn or Houli.

[kilbluff1985]

doesn't have a high ceiling either his highest is like 125

Might want to reread the OP ;)

they were all in 2011

[Mat0369]

If I was going for a mid price option at mid 5 he would be the guy I pick considering Scooter didn't start running until earlier in the month. However with how the defense looks and prioritising my cash I would rather spend the extra 150k in the backline which looks to be struggling for rookie options. Considering the depth of midfield rookies I can't justify picking Wells ahead of someone like Biggs or the cheaper options that are likely to get games.

[Bully]

doesn't have a high ceiling either his highest is like 125

Might want to reread the OP ;)

they were all in 2011

Doesn't really matter, if he was to replicate season 2013 I think the gamble pays off. Removing the sub affected game his lowest score was 68, I think that's a decent floor to work with and he should nudge 500k leading into the bye period. He also has the round 13 bye which makes upgrading very flexible.

[meow meow]

His finals series summed him up perfectly. 98, 67, 49. 49 points from an established midfielder is simply not on. He threw up 41 points in round 1 when he was uninjured, 68 points the next week. His form is so unpredictable and he could average 70 across the first 5 rounds and make zero dollars. The downside is real.

[bottlemart]

I saw some footage on the North Melbourne website, all reports are that Daniel Wells is flying, showing no signs of the foot injury that kept him out of most of last year.  the footage that i saw he looks to be moving very well and with good pace.  At $361k he is locked in for me atm.  Bargain.

[Bully]

His finals series summed him up perfectly. 98, 67, 49. 49 points from an established midfielder is simply not on. He threw up 41 points in round 1 when he was uninjured, 68 points the next week. His form is so unpredictable and he could average 70 across the first 5 rounds and make zero dollars. The downside is real.

He was injured in 2014, I'm willing to ignore that season altogether. I'm closely monitoring his fitness levels during the preseason and will jump on if he's moving freely. His standard deviation is being overstated if one looks back on his form 2011-2013, he is the only mid-pricer I can see nudging the 100 mark.

[meow meow]

His finals series summed him up perfectly. 98, 67, 49. 49 points from an established midfielder is simply not on. He threw up 41 points in round 1 when he was uninjured, 68 points the next week. His form is so unpredictable and he could average 70 across the first 5 rounds and make zero dollars. The downside is real.

He was injured in 2014, I'm willing to ignore that season altogether. I'm closely monitoring his fitness levels during the preseason and will jump on if he's moving freely. His standard deviation is being overstated if one looks back on his form 2011-2013, he is the only mid-pricer I can see nudging the 100 mark.

Injured in round 1 when he scored 41? It happened. You can't just ignore it because you don't like it!