Daniel Wells

[Bully]

His finals series summed him up perfectly. 98, 67, 49. 49 points from an established midfielder is simply not on. He threw up 41 points in round 1 when he was uninjured, 68 points the next week. His form is so unpredictable and he could average 70 across the first 5 rounds and make zero dollars. The downside is real.

He was injured in 2014, I'm willing to ignore that season altogether. I'm closely monitoring his fitness levels during the preseason and will jump on if he's moving freely. His standard deviation is being overstated if one looks back on his form 2011-2013, he is the only mid-pricer I can see nudging the 100 mark.

Injured in round 1 when he scored 41? It happened. You can't just ignore it because you don't like it!

Players play through foot injuries, that's just the nature of the beast. Three seasons averaging a tick over 100 is enough to suggest he's capable, his bye is also very handy and will make an upgrade to Rocky or Fyfe the perfect strategy.

[meow meow]

His finals series summed him up perfectly. 98, 67, 49. 49 points from an established midfielder is simply not on. He threw up 41 points in round 1 when he was uninjured, 68 points the next week. His form is so unpredictable and he could average 70 across the first 5 rounds and make zero dollars. The downside is real.

He was injured in 2014, I'm willing to ignore that season altogether. I'm closely monitoring his fitness levels during the preseason and will jump on if he's moving freely. His standard deviation is being overstated if one looks back on his form 2011-2013, he is the only mid-pricer I can see nudging the 100 mark.

Injured in round 1 when he scored 41? It happened. You can't just ignore it because you don't like it!

Players play through foot injuries, that's just the nature of the beast. Three seasons averaging a tick over 100 is enough to suggest he's capable, his bye is also very handy and will make an upgrade to Rocky or Fyfe the perfect strategy.

He only averaged over 100 in one of them. Again, you're just picking and choosing what stats you want to include to convince yourself that he's a gun. Why include his 2011 season but ignore his 2010 season?
He's 30, soft, taggable, injury prone and playing in a team that others have gone ahead of him in since his one very good year four seasons ago.

[Bully]

His finals series summed him up perfectly. 98, 67, 49. 49 points from an established midfielder is simply not on. He threw up 41 points in round 1 when he was uninjured, 68 points the next week. His form is so unpredictable and he could average 70 across the first 5 rounds and make zero dollars. The downside is real.

He was injured in 2014, I'm willing to ignore that season altogether. I'm closely monitoring his fitness levels during the preseason and will jump on if he's moving freely. His standard deviation is being overstated if one looks back on his form 2011-2013, he is the only mid-pricer I can see nudging the 100 mark.

Injured in round 1 when he scored 41? It happened. You can't just ignore it because you don't like it!

Players play through foot injuries, that's just the nature of the beast. Three seasons averaging a tick over 100 is enough to suggest he's capable, his bye is also very handy and will make an upgrade to Rocky or Fyfe the perfect strategy.

He only averaged over 100 in one of them. Again, you're just picking and choosing what stats you want to include to convince yourself that he's a gun. Why include his 2011 season but ignore his 2010 season?
He's 30, soft, taggable, injury prone and playing in a team that others have gone ahead of him in since his one very good year four seasons ago.

If you read my post I have omitted his sub affected game in 2013 which brings his average to 99, I think these are reasonable adjustments to gauge his true value.

Going back to 2012 he was subbed out twice, removing these matches and his average jumps to 105, these aren't mid-price numbers and illustrates that he is even capable of nailing down M8 if he gets back to his best.

In 2010 he averaged 87.9, not fantastic but still acceptable for a guy who's priced to average 60.

With so many people scratching around to find defenders who will average 90, I think Ill simply grab a similarly priced mid and leave nothing to chance with my defence. I'm not usually one to go down this route but the landscape has changed this year.

[RaisyDaisy]

With so many people scratching around to find defenders who will average 90, I think Ill simply grab a similarly priced mid and leave nothing to chance with my defence. I'm not usually one to go down this route but the landscape has changed this year.

This stands out to me. We are paying 500k for defenders who will average 90ish, when Wells could average the same for the price of a Yeo or Ibbo

I understand your logic and see where Meow is coming from too. I guess it just comes down to how you use the money you save by getting Wells elsewhere, and most importantly if you think he can stay injury free and average 90+, because even though he will still make money if he goes below 90 I would see it as a fail

[kilbluff1985]

Seedsman + Steven is a better combo then Wells + Birchall or whoever

[meow meow]

His finals series summed him up perfectly. 98, 67, 49. 49 points from an established midfielder is simply not on. He threw up 41 points in round 1 when he was uninjured, 68 points the next week. His form is so unpredictable and he could average 70 across the first 5 rounds and make zero dollars. The downside is real.

He was injured in 2014, I'm willing to ignore that season altogether. I'm closely monitoring his fitness levels during the preseason and will jump on if he's moving freely. His standard deviation is being overstated if one looks back on his form 2011-2013, he is the only mid-pricer I can see nudging the 100 mark.

Injured in round 1 when he scored 41? It happened. You can't just ignore it because you don't like it!

Players play through foot injuries, that's just the nature of the beast. Three seasons averaging a tick over 100 is enough to suggest he's capable, his bye is also very handy and will make an upgrade to Rocky or Fyfe the perfect strategy.

He only averaged over 100 in one of them. Again, you're just picking and choosing what stats you want to include to convince yourself that he's a gun. Why include his 2011 season but ignore his 2010 season?
He's 30, soft, taggable, injury prone and playing in a team that others have gone ahead of him in since his one very good year four seasons ago.

If you read my post I have omitted his sub affected game in 2013 which brings his average to 99, I think these are reasonable adjustments to gauge his true value.

Going back to 2012 he was subbed out twice, removing these matches and his average jumps to 105, these aren't mid-price numbers and illustrates that he is even capable of nailing down M8 if he gets back to his best.

In 2010 he averaged 87.9, not fantastic but still acceptable for a guy who's priced to average 60.

With so many people scratching around to find defenders who will average 90, I think Ill simply grab a similarly priced mid and leave nothing to chance with my defence. I'm not usually one to go down this route but the landscape has changed this year.

He's priced closer to 70 than 60.

NVB is priced at 40 and 80 is a reasonable target. Wells aint going to rise in value by 40ppg so NVB is the better pick. As are all the rookies.

[RaisyDaisy]

Seedsman + Steven is a better combo then Wells + Birchall or whoever

It's very close. There are several variables that need to fall into place for it to be true

Birchall is a keeper meaning at least 1 trade saved. Steven and Wells will most likely both need to be upgraded as will Seedsman most likely - again there are so much variables and luck involved there. Steven could come out and average 105-110 and be good enough for M8. A lot of if's and maybe's with these proposals which is why I prefer to just avoid mid pricers all together

[Bully]

His finals series summed him up perfectly. 98, 67, 49. 49 points from an established midfielder is simply not on. He threw up 41 points in round 1 when he was uninjured, 68 points the next week. His form is so unpredictable and he could average 70 across the first 5 rounds and make zero dollars. The downside is real.

He was injured in 2014, I'm willing to ignore that season altogether. I'm closely monitoring his fitness levels during the preseason and will jump on if he's moving freely. His standard deviation is being overstated if one looks back on his form 2011-2013, he is the only mid-pricer I can see nudging the 100 mark.

Injured in round 1 when he scored 41? It happened. You can't just ignore it because you don't like it!

Players play through foot injuries, that's just the nature of the beast. Three seasons averaging a tick over 100 is enough to suggest he's capable, his bye is also very handy and will make an upgrade to Rocky or Fyfe the perfect strategy.

He only averaged over 100 in one of them. Again, you're just picking and choosing what stats you want to include to convince yourself that he's a gun. Why include his 2011 season but ignore his 2010 season?
He's 30, soft, taggable, injury prone and playing in a team that others have gone ahead of him in since his one very good year four seasons ago.

If you read my post I have omitted his sub affected game in 2013 which brings his average to 99, I think these are reasonable adjustments to gauge his true value.

Going back to 2012 he was subbed out twice, removing these matches and his average jumps to 105, these aren't mid-price numbers and illustrates that he is even capable of nailing down M8 if he gets back to his best.

In 2010 he averaged 87.9, not fantastic but still acceptable for a guy who's priced to average 60.

With so many people scratching around to find defenders who will average 90, I think Ill simply grab a similarly priced mid and leave nothing to chance with my defence. I'm not usually one to go down this route but the landscape has changed this year.

He's priced closer to 70 than 60.

NVB is priced at 40 and 80 is a reasonable target. Wells aint going to rise in value by 40ppg so NVB is the better pick. As are all the rookies.

He's priced to average 67 so he will probably put on 100k in a worst case scenario. The round 13 bye also means I will have extra mid coverage if I upgrade in round 12 or 13, this alone could be worth 2-3 points on his overall average. As for NVB, I will probably carry both with NVB holding down M6. The other players around 200k don't interest me much at this stage, however all this is subject to change pending preseason form.

Seedsman + Steven is a better combo then Wells + Birchall or whoever

Not sure I agree with that, Seedsman is an unknown quantity and Stevens is no guarantee to hit the 100 mark. Birch seems a season keeper at this stage and Wells is an excellent player when formulating a bye round strategy.

[H1bb3i2d]

He's always seemed to be a form player. If he can average a conservative 90, then chances are he's had a 3-4 week period averaging 100ppg, which would push him up to $500k at the very least!! I think that should happen, he'll have periods where he gets tagged, but with a stronger midfield around him now, he should have a few free weeks every now and again. He also has a very handy bye.

[shaker]

Not for me even at his price

[Mat0369]

I think with Dal running around for North he will get the attention Wells used to. You can't tag both of them and Dal is the more damaging player.

[Hagebear]

I think with Dal running around for North he will get the attention Wells used to. You can't tag both of them and Dal is the more damaging player.

Not to forget Boomer and Ziebel. It's a case of Wells v Josh Kelly for me.

[YoungGun]

With north melbourne only going to improve and wells definitely capable of averaging 100+ I think it is not a poor choice whatsoever. Especially as you've said many of us are scrounging around for defenders between 300 and 400k that we hope can average 90.

You've done the research and most of all you really like the pick. Go with your gut. If he underperforms I still think you will be able to get out of it and upgrade at the byes like you said earlier. I had a really good look at him and think he is worth a punt, a fully fit and freely moving, fast daniel wells could be a beast this season. And could be a match winner in many North Melbourne games giving him a chance to return to his high ceilings of yesteryear.

Considering how convinced you are, I think you should go for it because if he notches out a 110 average across say the first 4 or 5 rounds you will be absolutely spewing

[Holz]

Last year I picked a guy with foot injuries who was a high scorer in the past I'm daisy Thomas.

I learn from my mistakes.

[Bully]

Last year I picked a guy with foot injuries who was a high scorer in the past I'm daisy Thomas.

I learn from my mistakes.

It all depends on how he's traveling preseason, I wouldn't rule a line through his name just because Daisy was a spud. Thomas was also finding his feet at a new club with a new coach, easier said than done.