Thoughts on Dan Hannenbery

[Ricochet]

Yes, but whats that got to do with the total points cap and Sydney players stealing points off each other? -

These are all of Hanneberys scores from last year.

58,57,107,82,67,113,138,123,159,97,104,137,55,54,65,104,154

Some games he crushed.. a few of them he ranked poorly.

What I was getting at in my last post.. You would treat each week with the same logic as DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports.. think Centrebet and AFL Fantasy Punt).
Hanneberys SC Price is 542k.
Since this topic is around selecting him from the start - you would ask yourself each week.. am I getting the 542k worth from him?

In Games 1 2 4 5 10 13 14 15 the answer is no.
I know he is a good player, he passes the eye test. So why the low scores? What happened Rounds 1 - 4.
It is clear his floor is 55 - 65. He notched 5 out of a possible 16 in the bracket.

Wouldn't you want to go with a safer pick? Where the Standard Deviation is much smaller?
Personally I would much rather have Brad Crouch or Andrew Swallow then most of the Swans midfield.
I also dont view Hannebery finishing in the top 10 mids.

Now if your instincts have him as a keeper and to never trade him out of your squad you can dismiss this logic as you would of gone through the ups and downs and your overall ROI will be in that ballpark.
But if you don't see him there in your Finals team then you may have better options else where.

Ok man all good, we were talking about something a little different away from Hanners. You have some valid points

[SydneyRox]

Now if your instincts have him as a keeper and to never trade him out of your squad you can dismiss this logic as you would of gone through the ups and downs and your overall ROI will be in that ballpark.
But if you don't see him there in your Finals team then you may have better options else where.

I don't think anyone would be picking him as a steping stone. You'd be in it for the ups and the downs.

Exactly, the only reason you are picking him is as a keeper that looks undervalued if he can get rid of those low scores. Will it happen, unlikely. He may go up as some teams try and tag others, but after 4-5 gun games the next team will tag him and he struggles.

[Mat0369]

Last season wins

82
113
138
123
159
97
104
137
55 (injured)
54
65
104
130 (final) (I actually screwed this one up in the first draft)
76 (final)

Total: 1437
average: 102.64



Last season losses
57
107
67
154
63 (GF)

Total: 448
Averaga: 89.6

If you don't count the injury game last year his average actually improves to 106 in a winning team.

Just reposting this so I can refer to it in this post

Yes, but whats that got to do with the total points cap and Sydney players stealing points off each other? -

These are all of Hanneberys scores from last year.

58,57,107,82,67,113,138,123,159,97,104,137,55,54,65,104,154

Some games he crushed.. a few of them he ranked poorly.

What I was getting at in my last post.. You would treat each week with the same logic as DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports.. think Centrebet and AFL Fantasy Punt).
Hanneberys SC Price is 542k.
Since this topic is around selecting him from the start - you would ask yourself each week.. am I getting the 542k worth from him?

In Games 1 2 4 5 10 13 14 15 the answer is no.
I know he is a good player, he passes the eye test. So why the low scores? What happened Rounds 1 - 4.
It is clear his floor is 55 - 65. He notched 5 out of a possible 16 in the bracket.

Wouldn't you want to go with a safer pick? Where the Standard Deviation is much smaller?
Personally I would much rather have Brad Crouch or Andrew Swallow then most of the Swans midfield.
I also dont view Hannebery finishing in the top 10 mids.

Now if your instincts have him as a keeper and to never trade him out of your squad you can dismiss this logic as you would of gone through the ups and downs and your overall ROI will be in that ballpark.
But if you don't see him there in your Finals team then you may have better options else where.

One of those scores you included was a pre-season game, I wouldn't be counting it in the rounds 1-4 however but he did only had 1 decent score and that coincided with the Swans form. He had the mid season dip off when he got injured resulting in the 55 and considering it was an ankle injury I don't think I expected him to finish the season off strongly (which he actually did with the 104, 154 and 130 in the first final). If you look at his previous seasons he has actually improved his scores in losing sides which is when he would score rather poorly (although that is inflated by the 154 vs the Tiges).

He is also one of the Swans mids that will routinely play through the middle so there is less chance of him getting the Jack treatment and playing on a forward flank. Yes he will be the first tagged more often then not, but he has destroyed the guy that some rate as the best tagger in the game the last two times he has lined up against him. I think at worst he becomes a mid 8 and if he goes uninjured he should average 105 with natural progression (that is 1 point higher then what he averaged last year uninjured) I think if you are looking at it risk vs reward at his price, he has a huge ceiling in a team that will win games and he tends to score well when they win so he looks like he could make a jump into the next bracket of elite scorers.

[H1bb3i2d]

I think he's just bound to drop below his starting price at some point, which defeats the purpose of picking him up as a value-pick. I might jump on mid-season if he's at a low 500s and I'm cash-struck, and stick to starting guys I know I'll want in my final side.

[SydneyRox]

the easy question should be, will he be a top10 scoring mid at year end?

No, then dont bother

Yes, then he is underpriced get on now rather than mid season.

[Mat0369]

Just looking at his scoring from last year when both he and the Swans on a tear gives me a gut feeling he will be up there. I had a similar feeling with Hibbo in 2013

[bowyanger]

For the rest of my life Ruffnuts tackle on Hanners in the 2014 GF will be the moment I remember when I cheered at the TV with joy at the realisation Hawks are gonna win that game

He went down like a dirty sock!!

Good player though

In SC terms I just think he has too many team mates stealing too much from the points pool allocation for each game

Get an injury or 3 to those other  guns in his team and definitely he is viable

Franks, JPK, Parker, McVeigh, Jack...consistant point stealers and then Tippett or Pyke can throw in a good game here and there

Same reason as Hawthorn players aren't a good option.....too many guns and a great team style of play with a play style that isn't rewarded greatly by CD (defensive, pressure style)

You want stand out players in average teams like Griff was at Dogs, Ablett at Suns, Dangerpants 2 years ago, JWatson 2 years ago, Rocky last year

I expect Jack Steven, Pendles and Selwood to go ape droppings in scoring this year...probably throw Libba in there as well but I think there is a lot of upside in Dogs like Bont & Hunter this year...Newnes & Geary at Saints

Aim of the game is to get aplayer that is > 110ppg ave to be considered a keeper or increase by approx. 20 PPG as an easier upgrade / money well spent when your talking about Hanners price tag

SydneyRox puts it in simple context

Are you confident he can do those 2 things?