Joel Selwood

[fasttrack13]

I personally don't see him holding 120... He will be mid 110s. Players who average that always drop below 560k

[Vinny]

I probably am not starting him but saying that, he will easily be a Top 5 midfielder.

6 seasons of 110+, last 3 have 115+.

He is only 26 years old and there is obvious room for improvement, he may not be that 125+ player.

But you know exactly what you're gonna get with Selwood.

[honza]

6 scores below 100 surely doesn't count as consistent...

Does his consistency really matter? I wouldn't care if he scored a 0 one week as long as he backed it up with a 240 the next

Consistency matters for different reasons. Reason 1 being you want your captain pumping even scores so you're not sweating bullets all week end.

Another reason is for trading strategy - Selwood is a player you can pluck on a price drop, Ablett/Pendles prices always remain stubbornly high. Hell sometimes these guys are +100k cashcows which is patently ridiculous but true in the early rounds.

But for me it's all about the 22 games, because you're not just paying for an average, but the total as well.

[Mantis]

Ablett Pendles and Jelwood I have locked in and not swapped since selecting them. My M4 and M5 keeps changing but those 3 are consistently hitting big scores. I know a lot of ppl say he will drop but it's not easy picking him up that week he may drop. Rocky, fyfe a lot of those players may drop to but can't pick em all the same week. Trying to pick 3-4 of who I think will b in the top 5 to start off without hurting the other lines too much.

[Keeper27]

never denied his ability to score, just saying you could get him cheaper midway.

2013 - Rnd 1 $629K/ Rnd 10 $491K
2014 - Rnd 1 $638K/Rnd 9 $549K

he'll be a top 5 mid, but i'll get him when he's cheaper

[kilbluff1985]

for a bit extra i prefer Fyfe

[shaker]

Why would you question Selwoods ability to deliver  :o

[AaronKirk]

For MS on his RMT thread he asked whether to start Jelwood or JPK so I did a quick analysis based on the draw of both. Here is the Selwood analysis based on his run to the byes. The scores shown are his scores from 2014 matches.

Here is Selwood's matches from 2014 against the sides he plays in the first 7 weeks.

Hawthorn               151   90 83 - 108 average
Fremantle               128   140   -  134 average
Gold Coast              103     
North Melbourne      148   113     -    130.5 avg
Richmond                93     
Collingwood             138     
Sydney                    98     

If you do the quick sums he averaged 116.82 in 2014 against the sides he faces in the first 7 weeks.

Then up to the bye he the Cats play Carlton, West Coast, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Melbourne before the Cats have the bye

Last year games against these sides

Carlton               110 122 - 116 average
West Coast         126
Essendon           138
Port Adelaide       82
Melbourne          144

This equates to a 120.33 average for 2014 against teams he plays between Rounds 8-12

If you can have a strategy to bring him in at Round 12 than that would be good but he won't drop a lot in price based on 2014 output and the increase against lesser opposition is not enough to not start him IMO.

[Keeper27]

for a bit extra i prefer Fyfe

you could do that, or you could save coin and get sloane/ward/barlow who'll go close/similar
i really think those 3 will go that extra and go 115-120.

[Mat0369]

I am holding off for two reasons.

The first is he always seems to have a shocker or lean patch the last couple of seasons that sees his price drop to be a really affordable upgrade target around the byes.

The second is with Stevie J's injury issues he will cop more attention. Teams still want to tag Stevie first and when he is playing in the guts they probably will, but if he is forced to play forward or miss games teams will really lock onto Selwood. He will have Freo in round 2 and then he also see Carlton about a month before the byes. He doesn't see either of those teams again post bye

[Keeper27]

Why would you question Selwoods ability to deliver  :o

never denied his ability to score, just saying you could get him cheaper midway.

[AaronKirk]

I am holding off for two reasons.

The first is he always seems to have a shocker or lean patch the last couple of seasons that sees his price drop to be a really affordable upgrade target around the byes.

The second is with Stevie J's injury issues he will cop more attention. Teams still want to tag Stevie first and when he is playing in the guts they probably will, but if he is forced to play forward or miss games teams will really lock onto Selwood. He will have Freo in round 2 and then he also see Carlton about a month before the byes. He doesn't see either of those teams again post bye

Stevie J is back in full training. He'll be right for round one but I agree that Jelwood will cop more attention. I don't think it will affect him as much. There is still a quality group of young mids around him who can help him shake off the tag.

[Bully]

Selwood is a no-brainer this year, even if he drops a little he will still feature in the top 10 mids, that's all I care about. His round 13 bye is also super handy.

[Jackross10]

Have had him locked all pre season. But if Crowley goes to him round 2 he could be a cheeky first upgrade if he has a stinker.

[fasttrack13]

for a bit extra i prefer Fyfe

Agreed