Bully's Boys

[RaisyDaisy]

Hurn - $467k (90 avg)
Houli - $447k (85 avg)
Adcock - $418k (85 avg + ??? job role change, lock down nowadays)
Ibbo - $343k (80 avg + ??? job security)

Compared to most who have

Smith - $503k (95 avg)
Shaw - $498k (95 avg)
Hibberd - $491k (95 avg)
Birchall - $478k (90 avg)

So that's a saving of $295k in which to make the loss of points (35) you need to upgrade somewhere to cover your loss plus gain points so in essence you need to upgrade to a player >35+ to make this all worthwhile.

I haven't seen much teams that have such a strong 4 like you are suggesting. Most teams going with 4 starting defenders have guys like Newnes/same players in Bully's price range, so I think the saving is more around the 250k mark. I wouldn't expect NVB to average 80 either...

The only real concern is that as the season goes on you want the best available players, and if Adcock, Ibbo and Houli are not averaging 90+ then you are either going to fall behind, possibly lose league matches, or have to use more trades to upgrade them

Personally, I'd prefer to have a Premo at D1, then Hurn, one of Adock or Houli then Ibbo. Just sures everything up and reduces risk/possibility of burning more trades

[Bully]

Another one to consider around Adcock's price mate, is Lumumba. Is set to play a bit of inside midfield this year. I've recently jumped on and put him in my sides

Interesting alternative, in 2013 he averaged 88 which would be ideal. You would expect more midfield time to make that a distinct possibility and perhaps he even breaks the 90 barrier. Good suggestion and one which will be seriously considered.

Hopefully Adcock's role will be given some more clarity over the next couple of months, Rich may take the rebounding position which will put an end to his 90+ days.

Hurn - $467k (90 avg)
Houli - $447k (85 avg)
Adcock - $418k (85 avg + ??? job role change, lock down nowadays)
Ibbo - $343k (80 avg + ??? job security)

Compared to most who have

Smith - $503k (95 avg)
Shaw - $498k (95 avg)
Hibberd - $491k (95 avg)
Birchall - $478k (90 avg)

So that's a saving of $295k in which to make the loss of points (35) you need to upgrade somewhere to cover your loss plus gain points so in essence you need to upgrade to a player >35+ to make this all worthwhile.

If I was to compare our teams for example, the only real differences is Selwood (120), Cotch (110) + Griff (107) v Barlow (115) Danger (110) and NVB (80) + higher end rookies (whom will have greater JS and score more points at this stage) and with that difference you make up a loss of 32 points. So with saying that, you may end up with a loss of points plus those defenders you have (albeit you realising they are risky) may not pay off and average less that those I named earlier.

Think this could pay off if you were to upgrade Griff even further to a proper super premo and with the news resurfacing on his back I think I'd keep away. Good thought though and I can see your reasoning but I wouldn't go for it. Best of luck.

Some excellent analysis, however I'm simply not sold on NVB making 80 points a match. He has only registered 1 ton in 2 seasons and 50% of his matches since 2011 have been below the 80 threshold. There's also question marks around how he'll be used, he's had a significant history as a tagger so I'm sitting on the fence for the moment.

As for the other premo defenders the only one I'm seriously considering upgrading to is Birchall. Hibberd could be suspended so I'm steering clear of Essendon players (Belly aside). He also has dodgy hammies so could easily miss the odd week. Shaw is guaranteed to miss 3-4 weeks also, he has achieved this notorious feat in every one of his past 7 seasons. Smith I like but he's still a one season wonder, 95 isn't ironclad in my eyes.

Jack Newnes is very high on my watchlist, he could be a likely candidate for D2 or D3. In his last 6 matches in 2014 he averaged 94 and has lifted his fitness levels another notch this year. If he puts in a strong preseason I will replace one of Houli or Adcock.

Ideally I would like one of my bench players to free up 30-40k, possibly Lever goes down to a 117k player (D.McKenzie) and Adcock gets moved to Newnes.

[eaglesman]

Hurn - $467k (90 avg)
Houli - $447k (85 avg)
Adcock - $418k (85 avg + ??? job role change, lock down nowadays)
Ibbo - $343k (80 avg + ??? job security)

Compared to most who have

Smith - $503k (95 avg)
Shaw - $498k (95 avg)
Hibberd - $491k (95 avg)
Birchall - $478k (90 avg)

So that's a saving of $295k in which to make the loss of points (35) you need to upgrade somewhere to cover your loss plus gain points so in essence you need to upgrade to a player >35+ to make this all worthwhile.

If I was to compare our teams for example, the only real differences is Selwood (120), Cotch (110) + Griff (107) v Barlow (115) Danger (110) and NVB (80) + higher end rookies (whom will have greater JS and score more points at this stage) and with that difference you make up a loss of 32 points. So with saying that, you may end up with a loss of points plus those defenders you have (albeit you realising they are risky) may not pay off and average less that those I named earlier.

Think this could pay off if you were to upgrade Griff even further to a proper super premo and with the news resurfacing on his back I think I'd keep away. Good thought though and I can see your reasoning but I wouldn't go for it. Best of luck.

Good analysis indeed ... However you are starting 4 rookies and I am not sold of 4 rookie priced players continuously starting ... Whereas if u pick the right defenders there will be no issue with job security ... Eg. Newnes, Lumumba, Hampton, Higgins, Yeo ...

Nevertheless it's a tricky one to decide atm

[fasttrack13]

NVB averaged a total of 79.99 from 2008-2012. He will be elavated into the top tier of the crows midfield brigade this year (if he doesn't tag) and should average into the 80s. Lock even if he averages 75+ because he Still makes 200k.

[Bully]

NVB averaged a total of 79.99 from 2008-2012. He will be elavated into the top tier of the crows midfield brigade this year (if he doesn't tag) and should average into the 80s. Lock even if he averages 75+ because he Still makes 200k.

I'm seeing a downward trend with NVB, 87, 78, 67. Throughout his career he's managed an 80 average twice, he also has M.Crouch, Grigg and Knight breathing down his neck. I guess much will depend on the role he's given, if he's given license to roam then he may be a worthwhile investment. I certainly haven't ruled him out but he's awkwardly priced for my current structure.

[fasttrack13]

Crouch and Grigg are still fringe players not to mention NVB is captain of the club which would mean they have full confidence he won't be dropped.

I'm pretty sure most players who tag average 50-70.. Just saying.
If Sheed/acres/Newton/Newton show form through nab or first couple of rounds I will trade NVB out. At the moment he's the most relevant behind Biggs priced at 200k

[Ricochet]

Crouch and Grigg are still fringe players not to mention NVB is captain of the club which would mean they have full confidence he won't be dropped.

I'm pretty sure most players who tag average 50-70.. Just saying.
If Sheed/acres/Newton/Newton show form through nab or first couple of rounds I will trade NVB out. At the moment he's the most relevant behind Biggs priced at 200k

Not any more :-X

[Money Shot]

this is actually slightly putting me off NVB >:(
Anyways this is a solid side mate cant really fault any of the picks and do see why you are going light in defence although I would go
Birchall, Newnes, Lumumba, Ibbotson, Waters and rookies for the same price.

apart from that it is a solid side and it is good too see some unique picks.

[_wato]

To alleviate those queries on NVB being a tagger, Walsh has actually come out and said that NVB will not go back to tagging duties this year - http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/nathan-van-berlo-wont-tag-players-in-2015-afl-season-says-adelaide-coach-phil-walsh/story-fnia3xzy-1227191223936?nk=e6ce55ae7bb4247d2905354d8d0f43f3
So an average of 80 is completely within his realms, I wouldn't put it past him whatsoever. Tex is captain now also.

At this stage you can't rule out Essendon players simply because of ASADA, and any of Adcock/Ibbo/Houli although having a great record of being durable are just as likely as Hibberd and other players to miss weeks (who aren't injury prone) - you say Shaw is 'guaranteed' to miss weeks purely on stats within the last few years but I don't really buy into that - he would've played 20+ games this year without that KO with Tippett, and sure while he was at Collingwood he did stuff he would regret. Smith is one year more mature and a very good player nonetheless.

RD in saying that then, it's still a case of attributing 30ppg within a cash splurge of $250k. Will it happen? Unlikely.

Good analysis indeed ... However you are starting 4 rookies and I am not sold of 4 rookie priced players continuously starting ... Whereas if u pick the right defenders there will be no issue with job security ... Eg. Newnes, Lumumba, Hampton, Higgins, Yeo ...

Nevertheless it's a tricky one to decide atm

You say I'm playing 4 rookies in the mids but how many rookies are people playing across the field? Most teams I see have 6 or 7 on field (12-14 premiums and 2-4 mid pricers + rookies to give your playing 22) and so it wouldn't matter?

I'd much rather have 4 mid rookies, 1 defence rookie and 1 forward rookie than 2/3/1 or 1/3/2 because we all know how midfield rookies are able to score better and more consistently and often have the much better job security, and everyone is complaining of no defence rookies - If you were to play a full defence of non rookies you'd have to field 6 rookies (4 mids and 2 forwards) to allow you to do that?

Hence, I don't see why that matters. Good talk though lads, enjoying it.

[fasttrack13]

Crouch and Grigg are still fringe players not to mention NVB is captain of the club which would mean they have full confidence he won't be dropped.

I'm pretty sure most players who tag average 50-70.. Just saying.
If Sheed/acres/Newton/Newton show form through nab or first couple of rounds I will trade NVB out. At the moment he's the most relevant behind Biggs priced at 200k

Not any more :-X

I did forget about that, when I searched it before it still came up as him. Hopefully the captaincy affected his output previously then ;)

[Bully]

Here's another alternative, it all depends on rookie availability at D8, I've been a long time fan of D.Mckenzie as a junior and would love him to get some early games. He was the best athlete from last year's crop and has elite disposal, I can see him slotting in at half back. There was a slight compromise in the mids, Heeney to Laverde, this can be reversed by switching Birch to Lumumba however, which may be the case if any other names put their hand up.

[Bully]

you say Shaw is 'guaranteed' to miss weeks purely on stats within the last few years but I don't really buy into that - he would've played 20+ games this year without that KO with Tippett, and sure while he was at Collingwood he did stuff he would regret. Smith is one year more mature and a very good player nonetheless.

Shaw is incredibly frustrating, here are his yearly returns -

2008 - 18 games
2009 - 18 games
2010 - 19 games
2011 - 14 games
2012 - 18 games
2013 - 19 games
2014 - 18 games

That's enough for me to rule a line through his name.

[Money Shot]

The above team is the best one yet!

[Bully]

The above team is the best one yet!

There's also the option of downgrading Hurn to Lumumba and upgrading N.Krakour to Heeney or Laverde to Cockatoo. Can't quite squeeze in NVB so it's looking like a no from me.

I reckon my starting midfield rookies will be Boekhorst, Vandenberg & Lambert - all mature agers who could feasibly score in a similar manner to Van Berlo.

[fasttrack13]

Hurn missed 14 games in last 2 years and has never averaged more than 94

Shaw has only Been out concussed/being and idiot rarely if ever has he done muscle or bone damage. Likeliness if he didn't get concussed in the most unlikely ness of circumstances this year he would've played 20-22 matches.