Bully's Boys

[Bully]

Def - Hurn, Houli, Adcock, Waters, Whitecross, Lever (N.Brown, Goddard)

Mids - Ablett, Pendles, Fyfe, Selwood, Cotchin, Heeney, Boekhorst, Vandenberg (Freeman, Krakouer, Lambert)

Rucks - Naitanui, Kreuzer (Read)

Forwards - Deledio, Goddard, Martin, Swan, Bellchambers, Clark (Hogan, Daniel)

Cash - 10,800

Strategy

First and foremost I'm simply not prepared to spend big in the backline, guys like Hurn, Adcock & Houli hold just as much value as Birchall, Shaw & the other rebounding defenders. I'd like Simpson in my team but I'm not prepared to sacrifice M5 to get him. Adcock had a stinker last year but he's a proven 90+ player and is part of a rapidly improving Brisbane team. He also rarely misses matches and that's what I want in the era of dodgy rookies. Houli is another who dropped off but if he can nudge the high 80's and continue his outstanding record of durability then I'm content. There's a host of vacancies up for grabs in the keeper department but it's a nightmare trying to identify them so I'll leave it until there's a standout performer (maybe Newnes if he starts well).

The midfield is stacked with the best and I'm rolling the dice on Cotchin given his low price, solid upside & outstanding draw. His form in the tail end of the season was approaching his best and with the additions of Maric & Miles I think he will average something in the region of 105-110, that's fine for an M8 who rarely misses a match.

The rucks are risky but I'm happy that Bellchambers can be called upon if need be. I also think Belly will average more than any forward rookie so it makes perfect sense. I also plan to swing him to the ruck bench if one of my rookies has a day out (contingent on lockouts of course).

The forward line looks strong, I'm happy there will be no Rohan holes this year and have high hopes for both Hogan & Daniel. I ummed & ahhed about Buddy & Bennell but I see these guys as possible upgrades, if in doubt wait for round 3 for any last minute changes.   

This will obviously all change as the rookies start to emerge but I feel I've got significant fat to accommodate most. As for Van Berlo, not sold at this point. I'll give him a few matches to stake his claim.

[Bully]

Here's my updated version in the event Whitecross doesn't get up, both M4 & M5 are also subject to change, Griffen is on the watchlist and I'm also considering a Watson & Swallow/Crouch combo.

Finally happy with the defence now, N.Brown would be the worst case scenario at D6 if Goddard & Lever don't make it.   

[RaisyDaisy]

I understand your logic behind the defenders you have selected, I really do, but there is just too much risk there. I know they have the history, but Adock and Houli could remain at 80ish averaging defenders, and that's going to hurt. Add in Ibbo and your backline is extremely vulnerable IMO

All other lines look fine, and similar ruck and fwd to mine as you said in my RMT thread :)

[Bully]

There's certainly an element of risk with Houli, Adcock & Ibbo but there's certainly method behind the madness. This is the first year in many that all the premo defenders are essentially rebounders, their ceilings will be therefore be around the 90 mark. I feel that all three have the potential to hit that mark and if not, they are unlikely to lose cash, in which case upgrading will probably only require  one rookie to be culled. I have no idea who will be in the top 6 so I'm willing to roll the dice a little.

Looking at Houli's scoring history he's averaged 89, 83, 90 & 83. If he's to follow this pattern then 90 isn't out of the question in 2015. Taking into account his 125 in the elimination final and his figures start to look a whole lot better, in fact he passed 80 on 16 occasions last year with 6 tons. He has a high standard deviation and can throw in the odd shocker or two but even Birchall & Simpson aren't immune where that's concerned. I also like Richmond's draw and feel Bachar will do very well in the early stages, the fact he's only missed 2 games in 4 years also deserves some recognition. Compare that to Shaw who routinely misses 4 games a year and the difference in output becomes negligible.

Adcock is certainly the forgotten man around these parts, he had one shocker of a year last year but prior to that he's been a model of consistency. 90, 90 & 91 in his past three season indicates a return to form is entirely plausible, particularly when the new team is slowly learning to gel with each other. Adcock is another who rarely dips below 80, in 2013 he passed that figure on 18 occasions and his durability is also outstanding having missed only 3 matches in 4 years. His ceiling is also decent, he averaged 110 in 2007 so there is even a little upside possible.

Ibbo is certainly the riskiest proposition but then again he may not be. He's the least likely to lose cash and may even stake his claim as a keeper. I've mentioned in the main thread that he had 3 injury affected matches in 2014 and this has kept his price well down on his 2013 exploits. I can see myself trading up at some stage but I can also see him making 150k along the way.

With no backline rookies this year mid pricers maybe the only way to go, if one pops up then I downgrade either Brown or Lever and bring in Simpson or Birchall, otherwise this is the way it will be.     

[eaglesman]

I have been looking at adcock myself thinking there must be something wrong with him that I don't know about and have not asked around or researched it .... I can't believe he isn't in many teams ... I chucked him in a side today in place of birchall

I personally don't think you will pick ibbo as the season comes closer ... Just don't believe in the nab he will show u enough to pick him

Looked at houli myself have had him the last few years and he hasn't really done enough - BUT this was when we had midfielders who actually could go 100 ... I don't think 90 is out of the question for houli at all

Good unique backline, just think another options instead of ibbo will happen

[Bully]

Ibbo is definitely a wait and see proposition but his value also lies in his cash cow ability. For my money he's the best bet in that price range to not only make money but become a genuine keeper. Bearing in mind he had an interrupted 2014, if one is to discount his injury affected games & include the finals he averages 82, certainly not in the realms of spectacular but good enough to put on a quick 100k in the event he bolts out of the blocks. There's still many question marks and much of this is contingent on preseason form however I'm viewing him as the alternative to Whitecross who is 50/50 at this stage.

[H1bb3i2d]

You obviously have faith in that backline, so if your gut says go for it, go for it! Could be a winning move, that's for sure. And I know you don't need me telling you how terribly wrong it could go too, so I won't...  :)

Can't find any faults in your team on other lines. I'm even on the Kreuzer bandwagon these days, as long as he starts as first ruck!

[Bully]

It certainly could go wrong but I'm being firm with my back line budget this year, the bottom line is nobody really knows who the top 6 will be, even the two highest priced players may not feature. This is basically the reason I've decided to throw caution to the wind and sniff out value where I can. It may buck convention a little with the tendency to only target keepers but this year is looming as a strange beast.

[Ricochet]

Another one to consider around Adcock's price mate, is Lumumba. Is set to play a bit of inside midfield this year. I've recently jumped on and put him in my sides

[eaglesman]

Ibbo is definitely a wait and see proposition but his value also lies in his cash cow ability. For my money he's the best bet in that price range to not only make money but become a genuine keeper. Bearing in mind he had an interrupted 2014, if one is to discount his injury affected games & include the finals he averages 82, certainly not in the realms of spectacular but good enough to put on a quick 100k in the event he bolts out of the blocks. There's still many question marks and much of this is contingent on preseason form however I'm viewing him as the alternative to Whitecross who is 50/50 at this stage.

I like it mate ... Gave me some good for thought and some different players to try out in my budget backline side

[RaisyDaisy]

The more I think about it the more I am swaying in opinion and liking your idea. Houli and Adcock could average 85ish, and that's not bad. It only backfires if some defenders do pop up and average 95-100

I think what threw me off initially was not seeing any of Simpson, Shaw, Hibberd etc

As long as the money saved here is giving you an advantage and point increase in another line then it's OK

[eaglesman]

The more I think about it the more I am swaying in opinion and liking your idea. Houli and Adcock could average 85ish, and that's not bad. It only backfires if some defenders do pop up and average 95-100

I think what threw me off initially was not seeing any of Simpson, Shaw, Hibberd etc

As long as the money saved here is giving you an advantage and point increase in another line then it's OK

Exactly ... I'm looking more into the Higgins Adcock lumumba Hampton Yeo savage rohan kolodjashnij still with newnes ... And starting bellchambers :/

[_wato]

Hurn - $467k (90 avg)
Houli - $447k (85 avg)
Adcock - $418k (85 avg + ??? job role change, lock down nowadays)
Ibbo - $343k (80 avg + ??? job security)

Compared to most who have

Smith - $503k (95 avg)
Shaw - $498k (95 avg)
Hibberd - $491k (95 avg)
Birchall - $478k (90 avg)

So that's a saving of $295k in which to make the loss of points (35) you need to upgrade somewhere to cover your loss plus gain points so in essence you need to upgrade to a player >35+ to make this all worthwhile.

If I was to compare our teams for example, the only real differences is Selwood (120), Cotch (110) + Griff (107) v Barlow (115) Danger (110) and NVB (80) + higher end rookies (whom will have greater JS and score more points at this stage) and with that difference you make up a loss of 32 points. So with saying that, you may end up with a loss of points plus those defenders you have (albeit you realising they are risky) may not pay off and average less that those I named earlier.

Think this could pay off if you were to upgrade Griff even further to a proper super premo and with the news resurfacing on his back I think I'd keep away. Good thought though and I can see your reasoning but I wouldn't go for it. Best of luck.

[H1bb3i2d]

Hurn - $467k (90 avg)
Houli - $447k (85 avg)
Adcock - $418k (85 avg + ??? job role change, lock down nowadays)
Ibbo - $343k (80 avg + ??? job security)

Compared to most who have

Smith - $503k (95 avg)
Shaw - $498k (95 avg)
Hibberd - $491k (95 avg)
Birchall - $478k (90 avg)

So that's a saving of $295k in which to make the loss of points (35) you need to upgrade somewhere to cover your loss plus gain points so in essence you need to upgrade to a player >35+ to make this all worthwhile.

If I was to compare our teams for example, the only real differences is Selwood (120), Cotch (110) + Griff (107) v Barlow (115) Danger (110) and NVB (80) + higher end rookies (whom will have greater JS and score more points at this stage) and with that difference you make up a loss of 32 points. So with saying that, you may end up with a loss of points plus those defenders you have (albeit you realising they are risky) may not pay off and average less that those I named earlier.

Think this could pay off if you were to upgrade Griff even further to a proper super premo and with the news resurfacing on his back I think I'd keep away. Good thought though and I can see your reasoning but I wouldn't go for it. Best of luck.

$300k should easily get you 60 points elsewhere, so that's ok. As far as Griff goes, someone came out and said it was all a load of B..

[_wato]

$300k should easily get you 60 points elsewhere, so that's ok. As far as Griff goes, someone came out and said it was all a load of B..

If $300k can get 60 points I'd love to see it mate, I'd assume it'd only net about 30-40 points at best.
That's alright then, but I still don't see him averaging above 107-108 at best considering the midfield at GWS