Krooz, Leuey, Belly and the DPP Saga

[blue]

I like Giles, but I feel like he is getting overrated around here

He couldn't get a game for Port, and when Mummy was fit he barely got games but all of a sudden he's a walk up starter number 1 ruck at Essendon?

He will play, I don't argue that, but to think that he will impact Belly is just a bit hard for me believe

I don't care whether it's ruck or forward, Belly is best 22, and that's all I need for 300k with his potential

Most rucks don't develop until they are mid 20's, that is when Giles got his starting gig at the Giants so he started playing consistent footy around the right age.

Also in terms of not getting games when Mummy was fit, when you have Cameron, Patton, Boyd, Tomlinson, Stewart etc. as potential KPP's you get games into them. Giles is a more natural ruck and since Mummy is a guy more then capable of shouldering the ruck on his own they had him do that and played the young guys. You can't compare trying to supersede Mummy who is one of the premier rucks in the comp to playing alongside Bellchambers

It's all irrelevant

Bellchambers is best 22, provides ruck cover and has the potential to average 75-90.

That's all I care about

Correct, Giles isn't all he's cracked up to be either, there's every chance he'll find himself in the reserves if he dishes up the same rubbish that he dished up last season. Belly is guaranteed to make cash, he'll outperform all the other rookies, he'll provide cover in the event a ruck goes down and he provides a handy loophole option if a forward bench player kills it - all this for 300k.

I'm thinking the other way that it could be belly in the reserves

[GoLions]

If his HTA isn't as good as Sauce or Goldy then the presumption would be that he won't be affected as much by the new rules and potentially be a more attractive option. He still costs a lot though for a ruck.

I don't understand what you're saying here AK. If his HTA isn't as good, he will no longer be getting 1 point for every HO

I agree his ground work is superior to any other ruck, tackles and applies pressure like a monster, but if a large chunk of his hitouts are not to advantage, he is losing a point for every one of them. If we assume that he is getting 2 extra points for a HTA but now no longer getting a point for a HO, and say he's HTA is 25% he would still be losing 1 point for every HTA

I'll try and explain that clearer. 25% in 2014 was 1 in 4, so 1,1,1,3 = 6 but now it's 0,0,0,5 = 5. If he gets 30-40 hit outs per game, that could be 5-7 ppg shaved off his average

I think AK meant if his hitouts didn't contribute to a high % of his points? So like, if he gets 20% of his points from hitouts, and 80% from around the ground stuff, it won't make as much of a difference to his scores.

[Bully]

I like Giles, but I feel like he is getting overrated around here

He couldn't get a game for Port, and when Mummy was fit he barely got games but all of a sudden he's a walk up starter number 1 ruck at Essendon?

He will play, I don't argue that, but to think that he will impact Belly is just a bit hard for me believe

I don't care whether it's ruck or forward, Belly is best 22, and that's all I need for 300k with his potential

Most rucks don't develop until they are mid 20's, that is when Giles got his starting gig at the Giants so he started playing consistent footy around the right age.

Also in terms of not getting games when Mummy was fit, when you have Cameron, Patton, Boyd, Tomlinson, Stewart etc. as potential KPP's you get games into them. Giles is a more natural ruck and since Mummy is a guy more then capable of shouldering the ruck on his own they had him do that and played the young guys. You can't compare trying to supersede Mummy who is one of the premier rucks in the comp to playing alongside Bellchambers

It's all irrelevant

Bellchambers is best 22, provides ruck cover and has the potential to average 75-90.

That's all I care about

Correct, Giles isn't all he's cracked up to be either, there's every chance he'll find himself in the reserves if he dishes up the same rubbish that he dished up last season. Belly is guaranteed to make cash, he'll outperform all the other rookies, he'll provide cover in the event a ruck goes down and he provides a handy loophole option if a forward bench player kills it - all this for 300k.

I'm thinking the other way that it could be belly in the reserves

Belly can play forward whereas Giles is a spud, apart from Giles debut year he's been uninspiring. His trade value was a fair reflection of his performances.

[RaisyDaisy]

I think AK meant if his hitouts didn't contribute to a high % of his points? So like, if he gets 20% of his points from hitouts, and 80% from around the ground stuff, it won't make as much of a difference to his scores.

That makes sense, but looking at Mummy's scores last year, all of his big and good scores happened when he got anywhere from 35-60 hitouts per match, and if he was getting either 1 or 3 points for all of those hitouts, and will now get 0 or 5 and goes at about 25% HTA then I think it's safe to assume his average is going to drop

All ruck averages are going to most likely drop, which means you are paying overs for the top rucks in particular, and that's why guys like Maric and NicNat  as well as the mid price options in Kreuz and Leuey in particular represent the most value to me as they are underpriced due to their injury riddled and below expectation scoring last year

[AaronKirk]

I think AK meant if his hitouts didn't contribute to a high % of his points? So like, if he gets 20% of his points from hitouts, and 80% from around the ground stuff, it won't make as much of a difference to his scores.

That makes sense, but looking at Mummy's scores last year, all of his big and good scores happened when he got anywhere from 35-60 hitouts per match, and if he was getting either 1 or 3 points for all of those hitouts, and will now get 0 or 5 and goes at about 25% HTA then I think it's safe to assume his average is going to drop

All ruck averages are going to most likely drop, which means you are paying overs for the top rucks in particular, and that's why guys like Maric and NicNat  as well as the mid price options in Kreuz and Leuey in particular represent the most value to me as they are underpriced due to their injury riddled and below expectation scoring last year

GL is basically correct in the way I was trying to explain it. If I get time to do a further detailed analysis I will post here at some stage, but right now as it stands Mumford and Nic Nat are the rucks I will be looking to start.

[RaisyDaisy]

If he is getting 35-60 hitouts and was getting 1 or 3 points for every one, I think we can safely assume that a large portion of his scoring is done from hitouts, and with the change in scoring now his average is going to drop, so I'd prefer to start an underpriced ruck and upgrade to Mummy once he drops in price

[H1bb3i2d]

Yeah, Mumford had some monster HO games, and definitely scored a lot of his points there. Any ruckman going below 33% will lose points, and if Mummy only goes at 25%, that's still a fair drop-off.

Scoring aside, why do people keep crawling back to this injury-prone bloke? He's as expensive as ever and no less of an injury risk, yet he seems as pre-season popular as I've ever seen...?

[meow meow]

Interesting Ruck Cover article

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/supercoach-2015-what-ruck-changes-mean-and-who-to-pick/story-fni5f3gz-1227209409376

They forgot to mention that Minson played all of 2014 with a bad back, and had the highest HTA (percentage and total) in 2013.

Haven't read the article yet.

Any mention of Mumford at R1 with Lobb R3?

Nope

And Mumford not mentioned in the Top 5 rucks for HTA since 2012 too.

Instead of 3 points for a HTA and 1 for HA, it's now 5 for HTA and 0 for HA, and since 2012 the Top 5 are Hampson, Sauce, Goldy, Maric and NicNat.

Doesn't take into account the stuff done on the ground level, which Mummy showers all over the 5 mentioned. Nic Nat gets close when fully up and running.

But the points for that aren't changing, only the hit outs. So it can be said his average will drop. May still be higher than the others though.

The HTA points aren't the only thing that is changing. Jacobs is set to lose 0.2 points from the hitout rule change, but will lose 7 points when they apply the other changes too. Rucks who get the hard ball at stoppages will also suffer and Mummy is probably the best of the lot of them at this.

[Dons]

I'm seriously considering Nic Nat, Luey and Kruz. The outlay isn't more than a goldy/Jacobs/rookie type combo, probably less, and I can't help but think even if rookie rucks play this year they'll more often than not be subbed out, and with the change in scoring, potentially on less points, meaning they will be useless as both cover and cash cows. Luey and Kruz could easily ave 90+ IMO, there for being great cover and cash cows. I think a fwd rookie like hogan/Clark/Salem/etc will score comparable to belly, who, even as a Bombers man, I don't hold a lot of hope for, and therefor negate the "cost" of having luey or Kruz on the bench. Far from convinced on this left field approach, but does it have merit?

[Holz]

I'm seriously considering Nic Nat, Luey and Kruz. The outlay isn't more than a goldy/Jacobs/rookie type combo, probably less, and I can't help but think even if rookie rucks play this year they'll more often than not be subbed out, and with the change in scoring, potentially on less points, meaning they will be useless as both cover and cash cows. Luey and Kruz could easily ave 90+ IMO, there for being great cover and cash cows. I think a fwd rookie like hogan/Clark/Salem/etc will score comparable to belly, who, even as a Bombers man, I don't hold a lot of hope for, and therefor negate the "cost" of having luey or Kruz on the bench. Far from convinced on this left field approach, but does it have merit?

the only plus i see from this is i dont like having players not makimg me money. it looks like there might not be a r3 rookie who will make money. so if a kreuz can make 100k thats at least something. at the cost of an initla outlay of 200k though.

[Holz]

I didnt know kreuz was 370k and burger 350k

that makes Goldy + Rookie a cheaper combo. you cant do that as goldy should smash both those guys by 15+ at least. even over half a season thats 200+ points which helps your ranking.

[Ricochet]

Actually starting to consider Krooz + Leuey with Belly in the fwds. Thinking is that most top ruckmen's averages will drop along with their price. Which means if they have a quiet patch, they could have a reallllly quiet and drop significantly in price. Worst case, the guys with high HTA numbers will stay around the same price anyway. But yeh not 100% sold

[Holz]

Actually starting to consider Krooz + Leuey with Belly in the fwds. Thinking is that most top ruckmen's averages will drop along with their price. Which means if they have a quiet patch, they could have a reallllly quiet and drop significantly in price. Worst case, the guys with high HTA numbers will stay around the same price anyway. But yeh not 100% sold

NN and Goldy are both underpriced under the traditional scoring though so even if the top rucks only go 105-110 they should both be there. whereas these mid prciers might have gone 90 now they only go 85. dont make that much money but still need to be traded out.

[Ricochet]

Actually starting to consider Krooz + Leuey with Belly in the fwds. Thinking is that most top ruckmen's averages will drop along with their price. Which means if they have a quiet patch, they could have a reallllly quiet and drop significantly in price. Worst case, the guys with high HTA numbers will stay around the same price anyway. But yeh not 100% sold

NN and Goldy are both underpriced under the traditional scoring though so even if the top rucks only go 105-110 they should both be there. whereas these mid prciers might have gone 90 now they only go 85. dont make that much money but still need to be traded out.

Yeh their averages, but if Goldy starts the year like he did in 2014 then 89, 75, 98, 93, 89, 69 will be a lot lower and he'll drop bucketloads of cash. I know he hurt his should but its still happened so could have another lean patch. Or he could do the opposite and start with a bang :P

[Holz]

Actually starting to consider Krooz + Leuey with Belly in the fwds. Thinking is that most top ruckmen's averages will drop along with their price. Which means if they have a quiet patch, they could have a reallllly quiet and drop significantly in price. Worst case, the guys with high HTA numbers will stay around the same price anyway. But yeh not 100% sold

NN and Goldy are both underpriced under the traditional scoring though so even if the top rucks only go 105-110 they should both be there. whereas these mid prciers might have gone 90 now they only go 85. dont make that much money but still need to be traded out.

Yeh their averages, but if Goldy starts the year like he did in 2014 then 89, 75, 98, 93, 89, 69 will be a lot lower and he'll drop bucketloads of cash. I know he hurt his should but its still happened so could have another lean patch. Or he could do the opposite and start with a bang :P

everytime he has rucked uninjured and as the sole ruckman he has scored 110+. Done that 3 years.