POD Premiums

[honza]

It still has 0%. Have you guys got gold? I think maybe that is why or my SC page is just being a pain

Ah yep thats it, only works with Gold

That's gold

[Holz]

Some PODs under 10% for me
AWalker 2.5%
Rocky only 9% :o
KSimpson 8%

9% too much I think.

What  :o Captaincy will only boost his scoring, just watch.

90% chance I end up with him. Not starting him though.

[Mat0369]

I will wait for the price drop with Rocky and pounce.

[Jackross10]

I will wait for the price drop with Rocky and pounce.

Yeah definently. He will drop at some stage and with the brisbane midfield I wanna see how the points spread first, don't think people should start him tbh!

[Mat0369]

He doesn't come up against any elite point restricting midfields until round 6 when he plays Carlton. While he might average around 120-130 in that time and possibly maintain his price I think heading into the byes he might drop a 90 or two which should see his price bottom out coming to round 11 and then he is perfect to pick up for round 12.

[nrich102]

I will wait for the price drop with Rocky and pounce.

Where will you find the money for him if he is over 650k?

[Mat0369]

If he drops a coupe of 90's he will drop to under 650k

Also if you hit on the right rookie and mid price options s it shouldn't be that difficult. If S. Selwood is fit he ands Van Berlo should be abe to become Rockliff easily. There are always Tyson/Polec types every year and they are the ones you use for your guns.

[AaronKirk]

I will wait for the price drop with Rocky and pounce.

Where will you find the money for him if he is over 650k?

GAJ dropped below 600k in 2013, albeit toward the end of the season, so it is possible for a gun to drop in price a lot.

Rocky doesn't have the consistent history of GAJ yet, and history says you rarely back up 120+ years. IMO Rocky is very likely at some stage of the season to fall to around 600ish and if so I will jump on

There is zero chance I will start with him. We just don't know how Rich, Christensen and Beams are going to affect the points spread of the Brisbane Mids.

[nrich102]

I will wait for the price drop with Rocky and pounce.

Where will you find the money for him if he is over 650k?

GAJ dropped below 600k in 2013, albeit toward the end of the season, so it is possible for a gun to drop in price a lot.

Rocky doesn't have the consistent history of GAJ yet, and history says you rarely back up 120+ years. IMO Rocky is very likely at some stage of the season to fall to around 600ish and if so I will jump on

There is zero chance I will start with him. We just don't know how Rich, Christensen and Beams are going to affect the points spread of the Brisbane Mids.

600k is still a bloody lot of money though. I can't see Beams and co hurting his scoring that much, think its more likely to hurt the opposition. Think Beams, Swan, Sidey and Pendles at Collingwood.

[Dayze]

I brought in selwood and pendles in one round after the byes last year.
It's not easy but it's gotta be done. Can't afford to start every gun mid.
Gonna be tricky finding the cash for rocky, beams and fyfe but that's the plan to finish my mids.

[Mat0369]

Yup, it only takes a couple of 90 weeks in a 5 week spread to see that B/E sore. The way I look at it is this

If I was looking at starting 5 mid premiums (Rockliff being one) and that forced me to start Nathan Brown on the field, then my scoring output would look like this

Rocky @120 average up until the bye and Nathan Brown @40 average

Selwood (if fit) @ 100-105 average with Lumumba @85-90 average

Wells @ 85-90 average with Hibb/Birch @90-95 average

Combo 1 is 160 total points
Combo 2 is 185-195 total points
Combo 3 is 175-185 total points

You can then pick up Rockliff later at the cheaper price as he will drop if he averages 120 priced at 132

You then have a stepping stone in Wells/Selwood to make the trade as easy as possible.

[AaronKirk]

I will wait for the price drop with Rocky and pounce.

Where will you find the money for him if he is over 650k?

GAJ dropped below 600k in 2013, albeit toward the end of the season, so it is possible for a gun to drop in price a lot.

Rocky doesn't have the consistent history of GAJ yet, and history says you rarely back up 120+ years. IMO Rocky is very likely at some stage of the season to fall to around 600ish and if so I will jump on

There is zero chance I will start with him. We just don't know how Rich, Christensen and Beams are going to affect the points spread of the Brisbane Mids.

600k is still a bloody lot of money though. I can't see Beams and co hurting his scoring that much, think its more likely to hurt the opposition. Think Beams, Swan, Sidey and Pendles at Collingwood.

Another quick stat.

Out of all players who had a 15+ PPG jump in their averages from one season to the next who averaged 110+ how many have then improved?

Answer: 2. Ablett went from 91.4 in 2006 to 114.2 in 2007. He did it again in 08 going to 132.2, the freak then improved after a 2nd 15+PPG spike to 140.1 in 2009

The other is Dane Swan who went from 102 in 08 spiked to 123.2 in 09 and improved in 10 to 126.2

The other player who had the same average in this scenario is Adelaide's Scott Thompson. He went from 90.8 in 2010 to 110.5 in 2011. He stayed at 110.5 in 2012

Every other player who has had a 15+ PPG spike from year A to B has dropped in their average in year C. The majority of the 33 have dropped by more than 10 PPG the year after their spike.

Thanks to one of the other SC websites for this data, which illustrates this very well in an excel table.

The players who had this spike in 2014 were Rocky, Mumford, Ward, Fyfe, Gray, Jacobs and Stef Martin.

I won't be picking any of them to start the season.

[Mat0369]

Also when Rockliff dominates it tends to be in the back end of seasons. Last year, 2013 and 2011 he absolutely tore the 2nd half of the season to shreds which is where his average was boosted. He just keeps churning out tons post bye so I think even if he does drop to a 120 average early he could still finish with a 130 average come seasons end. Half of SC is figuring out when to pick up players

[nrich102]

Nice stat AK. Maybe its Im crazy bias, but I can see Rocky bucking that trend. I think the captaincy will help him out. Will his average drop? Probably. But will it drop that much? I can see him averaging 130ish, which is down a couple of points on last year, but I can't not justify picking him.

[AaronKirk]

Nice stat AK. Maybe its Im crazy bias, but I can see Rocky bucking that trend. I think the captaincy will help him out. Will his average drop? Probably. But will it drop that much? I can see him averaging 130ish, which is down a couple of points on last year, but I can't not justify picking him.

Rocky has already had a 15+PPG spike previously in 2011

He went from 85.9 in 2010 to 113.6 in 2011.

He dropped to 97.3 in 2012

I dunno. Time will tell.