Jack Newnes

[Mat0369]

Simmo is safer then Hibberd. It took a cheap shot from Wellingham to break Simmos consecutive games played streak. You can probably expect at least a 95 average and for him to play every game, that makes him worth his price from the start.

There is a difference between Newnes and Swallow, Swallow was a number 1 draft pick that was a lock to play through the guts, Newnes the Saints like to use in different roles and what makes him valuable to the team is his leadership and versatility, not his on field performances where he dominates games.

Also @Holz avoid Grimes like the plague, he has continued to go backwards in his scoring each year and some Melbourne fans were calling for him to get dropped last year that is how poor his form was. It is one of the reasons he stepped away from the captaincy, he just looks like a recipe for disaster.

[Hoggyz_a_legend]

Coming from a die hard Saints supporter, this kid was one of my first picked, and one of about 4 players who haven't left my team all pre-season. He is a shoe-in for a 90+ average, which is a bargain for $430~k.

He won't be the Swallow of 2015, but he will up his avg by about 10-15 imo.

[meow meow]

I don't believe the hype. Average player will maintain his average average.

[The_Captain]

If i was taking a punt, i think i prefer Grimes who is abit cheaper.

Don't do it Holz! Injury central!

basically every defender is a risk except HIbberd.

heath shaw is a rock! Never gets a hard ball in his life so he will never get injured ahahahaha.

[Ricochet]

I don't believe the hype. Average player will maintain his average average.

I don't buy into it either at this stage

[elephants]

Biggest hype-player so far this pre-season eaaasily.

[Vinny]

I do think he will improve but I'm not picking him at this stage. Prefer the more proven Walker or Fisher.

[Deadly6]

heath shaw is a rock! Never gets a hard ball in his life so he will never get injured ahahahaha.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrXuX621fNU

[nrich102]

Biggest hype-player so far this pre-season eaaasily.

Bellchambers??

[meow meow]

Biggest hype-player so far this pre-season eaaasily.

Bellchambers??

Bellchambers isn't hype. He's actually done what people hope/expect him to do. Priced at 55, people want 80-85 out of him. The Newnes 90+ talk is based on pure speculation.

[Capper]

Would you go Newnes over Geary??

[Holz]

Would you go Newnes over Geary??

I would rather go geary, proven can score in the past when fit. talk is he is playing in the midfield.

going neither though

[Spanner221]

Alright, so I've seen this kid in nearly every single team, and I guess a lot of people think he can break out and become one of the best/premium defenders this year

Can anyone tell me why?

Everyone was hyping up Swallow last year and I didn't start him. He broke out and I had to get him in much later, so I don't want to miss out this year too

So, do I fit Newnes into my team? Is he going to pull a Swallow of 2014?

I don't think he will be as successful as Swallow last year but I can see Newnes being the Brodie Smith of last year.

He is coming into his 4th year which is the most common year for a player to breakout.

He lifted his average from 58.2 in 2013 to 81.2 last year so it is likely that he will have a big increase again this year.

He finished off the year strongly averaging 92.3 in his last 6 games.

He is definitely in the Saints best 22 and all indications show that he will spend more time in the midfield this year.

He has DEF/MID status which is a rarity this year.

What's not to love?  ;)

To add to that the prospectus has an interesting stat about his midfield time. I don't own it so I don't have the exact number but in 2013 he had ~28% midfield time while last year it increased to ~45%. Given the likes of Webster, Savage, Acers and now McKenzie all wanting a rebounding defender spot one can only imagine Newnes to become more or less a full time midfielder. Combine that with his ~75% disposal efficiency simply increasing his disposal to about 25 should be enough for him to score at premium rates (for a lack luster backline) .

It is looking like the Saints midfield will be in better shape this year too despite the loss of Lenny (Armitage is in career best shape, Dunstan with a new diet, Montagna and Steven both recovering well from playing most of last year injured). This means that Newnes should be able to get the ball often enough to get that increase in possessions. To further emphasis the extra midfield time Richardson has said more then once that we have enough inside types (rumor is Lenny retired because he didn't want to take Ross's spot in the team anymore) but need some more outside which is exactly what Newnes offers.

He was also at the saints young leadership challenge in Canberra and by all reports him and Ross most impressed the most, further showing that he is looking at stepping it up to the next level.

He has been a Saints favorite for a couple of years now so its not like he has come out of nowhere. He has also played 54 games which, as most fantasy players know, is the magic number of games played for a player to step it up to the next level.


Here is a couple write ups in case you have missed them: http://www.scpaige.com.au/jack-newnes/  http://dreamteamtalk.com/2015/01/19/jack-newnes-deck-of-dt-2015/


On Geary the only reason why I've seen talk about him getting more midfield time is because they want to get games into Wright who plays the similar small lock down defender type. I personally doubt that Geary's role will change much and would recommend people stay away from him.

[meow meow]

Alright, so I've seen this kid in nearly every single team, and I guess a lot of people think he can break out and become one of the best/premium defenders this year

Can anyone tell me why?

Everyone was hyping up Swallow last year and I didn't start him. He broke out and I had to get him in much later, so I don't want to miss out this year too

So, do I fit Newnes into my team? Is he going to pull a Swallow of 2014?

I don't think he will be as successful as Swallow last year but I can see Newnes being the Brodie Smith of last year.

He is coming into his 4th year which is the most common year for a player to breakout.

He lifted his average from 58.2 in 2013 to 81.2 last year so it is likely that he will have a big increase again this year.

He finished off the year strongly averaging 92.3 in his last 6 games.

He is definitely in the Saints best 22 and all indications show that he will spend more time in the midfield this year.

He has DEF/MID status which is a rarity this year.

What's not to love?  ;)

To add to that the prospectus has an interesting stat about his midfield time. I don't own it so I don't have the exact number but in 2013 he had ~28% midfield time while last year it increased to ~45%. Given the likes of Webster, Savage, Acers and now McKenzie all wanting a rebounding defender spot one can only imagine Newnes to become more or less a full time midfielder. Combine that with his ~75% disposal efficiency simply increasing his disposal to about 25 should be enough for him to score at premium rates (for a lack luster backline) .

More midfield time = lower DE. The most efficient ball users are the ones who get lots of easy possessions in the backline.

Simply increasing his disposals to 25? Nobody does that simply. He's not better than Marc Murphy, Gibbs, Jack, Ward, Libba, Sloane, Stanton etc and none of those guys could average 25 touches but Newnes can do it simply?

[Mat0369]

It also depends on the teams game plan. Carlton for example (since you mentioned Gibbs and Murph) play a stupid game plan where it is based around low possession numbers and hugging the boundary which is why their players have low averages. A team that plays a possession based game plan you could see those numbers go up drastically. The lower DE correlation would generally only come into it if they win more contested ball their DE might go down since it is harder to dispose of the ball when you are under pressure.