The Death of Guns & Rookies

[Mr.Craig]

An informal series of ramblings regarding AF 2015. This week's episode - The Death of Guns & Rookies.


We've been blessed in the last few years to have a wealth of good rookie options to select in our sides. Thanks to the expansion teams, 2011 and 2012 were filled with cheap youngsters ripe for the picking and then you had the likes of Heppell, Liberatore, Ellis, Hibberd and I.Smith to round out your side. 2013 continued to see an influx of young talent to GWS but Wines, Viney and Vlastuin were the pick of the bunch while still being priced within the grasp of thrifty coaches. However, it was truly the year of the mature-ager with Brett Goodes, Kane Mitchell, Kyle Martin, Sam Dwyer and Dean Terlich all being hugely important money makers in the context of the season.

Coming into 2014 there were concerns that the rookie stocks wouldn't be as strong, the draft turned out to be reasonable but then the hammer blow came with the announcement of a new rookie pricing structure. People simply couldn't justify paying mid 200k for players who could quite easily fail or have their price increases ruined by vests. There weren't really any good mature age recruits to turn to; Miles didn't show up until Round 12 and S.Gray, Gordon and Lloyd were all essentially busts. In desperation people turned to fantasy spuds like Rohan, Kersten, Impey and JKH just to field a team. It wasn't quite the end of the road for rookies; McDonald, Aish, Dunstan and Lewis Taylor all did their job for the most part but it was still a rocky road throughout the season.

So, is 2015 really the death of the rookie? Maybe I'm being a little hyperbolic. Petracca is currently at 17% ownership and Brayshaw at 8% so some coaches still seem willing to pay top dollar, at least at this early stage of pre season. Heeney is also wildly popular at 30% despite being 226k and having questionable playing prospects. Three mature age players are appearing in a great deal of teams - Vandenberg, Krakouer and Lambert are all rookie listed and it would take a giant effort for any of them to firstly get elevated and then play the necessary amount of unvested games to make money. Ultimately I think coaches will have to move away from those players and spend more money in order to select more realistic options for Round 1.

Currently my team has just two players from the 2014 draft (Brayden Maynard and Caleb Daniel) and I even have my doubts about them. Discounted players rule the roost - Leuenberger, Kreuzer, Waters, Ibbotson, Henderson, Rich, NVB...then you've got the conventional mid prices who people are hoping will step up to another level this year - Kelly, M.Crouch, Adams, Bontempelli, Vlastuin, Seedsman etc. Even cheaper again, instead of rookies, we've got a bunch of 2nd-4th year players - Cripps, Acres, Newton, Freeman, Hogan, Membrey, Kennedy, Lennon, O'Rourke, Anderson...

It appears that making a relatively strong Round 1 side won't be that difficult (touch wood). I see the real challenge coming early to mid season, if those mid pricers get injured or under perform it's going to be a nightmare trading them out. You either need a viable downgrade, a suitable sideways or the cash to upgrade otherwise you're stuck with them. Just in general I feel like downgrading will be particularly tricky during the year, there's not a lot to get excited about in the sub 200k players. I wouldn't be surprised to see people forced to hold onto players beyond the byes in order to get the most out of them and be in a position to downgrade successfully.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic about 2015, maybe all those mid pricers will gun it, maybe we'll see a resurgence in fantasy rookies in the years to come. Or maybe not.

[Kellogscrunchynut]

In some respects it is an improvement on the game, In some previous years I've had teams with 0 mid-pricers I think they had the rookie pricing right last year and I think that this year some of the higher picks will lose money.

[dunnie]

I agree and I also think it is better for the game. A few years ago it was easy to follow the formula of guns and rookies and too many teams were similiar. I do not think any player should be a 'lock' so highly rated rookie prices should be high.
This year I think NVB is the only lock and that is great.

[T Dog]

Interesting rambling Mr C.
Perhaps the "rookie" word is becoming  misnomer?.
Price range could be the dividing splits rather than rookie / mid / premium etc? may turn into eg. under 200k; under 350k; under 500k; over 500k.
Makes sense to me in a way. 

[Capper]

Its almost at the stage where you need to have a rookie they may not play on some of your bench spots and then have DPPs to fill positions when required.

It will be iteresting to see who the top 6 backs are for the year

[SydneyRox]

rookie downgrades will most likely be the make/break of teams this year, not as many round and the price increases whittled down to almost nothing.

[The_Captain]

Just means upghrading will be a lot harder and we may not see sides with premos on the bench in all spots come years end like some sides last year.

[Mr.Craig]

Great replies. 8)

It will be interesting to see who the top 6 backs are for the year

That will be my next rambling.

[Capper]

Great replies. 8)

It will be interesting to see who the top 6 backs are for the year

That will be my next rambling.

That will be a good read, looking at the top 10 priced backs currently

[missmagic]

very good post,havent studied afl fantasy much yet,but your spot on with your thoughts,perhaps anything that makes it tougher will counter things like 44 trades,hope their site is more user friendly this year,the whole thing was horrible but the draft comp was particularly bad,took up to 7 hours to complete a 18 or 20 team league draft,thats 1 comp i wont be returning to this year

[Mr.Craig]

Next rambling has been written. Will probably post it Monday.

[Grazz]

Nice read Mr C. The evolution of AF continues. Needed to be hardened up and opens up some ballsy strategies with benches.   

[R.Griffen]

Most midprices are under performing rookies from past years and or players who didn't play in 2014. I guess this year the luck fell to the fantasy coaches due to the amount of guns who hardly played last year. If the same structure is kept for next year but no season ending injuries happen then it will be a struggle. Not that I am hoping for players to get injured cause I don't want to see that but with the Fanhub upping the draftees prices it makes it could make it difficult in the future

[Grazz]

Most midprices are under performing rookies from past years and or players who didn't play in 2014. I guess this year the luck fell to the fantasy coaches due to the amount of guns who hardly played last year. If the same structure is kept for next year but no season ending injuries happen then it will be a struggle. Not that I am hoping for players to get injured cause I don't want to see that but with the Fanhub upping the draftees prices it makes it could make it difficult in the future

I feel the same, not sure they've got it right going the rookie price path.

[Nige]

Interesting ramble Craig, very insightful.

I look forward to the rest of them.