The Watchlist - Season started, team Angry Pirates

[Mat0369]

It is still early Jan, NAB cup is about a month away which is when we get into it, so I figured I would make a list of guys I want to keep an eye on/potentially fit into my team. Most of my smokey's come from the NAB comp anyway so I am not worried about anyone stealing my POD's yet   :P

The backs

Simmo
Lez
Ricky Henderson
Birch
Harbrow
Walker/Yarran
Geary
Roberton
La Bamba
Zak Jones
Whitecross
Walking Beundaid
Misc rookies

The rucks

Nic Nat
Minno
Berger (probably won't touch him unless he looks to play majority in the ruck)
Kreuz (similar to Leuenberger)
Belcho
Hammer (if Maric gets injured)
Tom Nicholls
Grundy

The forwards

Lids
BJ
Buddy
Harley
Christensen
Swan
Bruest
The Chad
Tom Mitchell
Walker
Craig Bird
Taylor Adams
Wellingham
Gus Monfries
Jeremy Cameron
Ziebell
Tom Bell
Garlett
Nick Graham
Jed Lamb
Chris Knights
Vardy
Reid
Sylvia
Salem
Dennis
Blease
Membrey
Kommer
Clark
Saad
Brandon Jack
Robbie Tarrant
Karnezis
Hogan
Harper
Menzel x2
Lambert
Misc Rookies

The mids

Gaz
Pendles
Sidebottom
Barlow
Heppell
Bryce
Boak
Danger
KJack
Hanners
Griff
Boyd
Brad Crouch
Armitage
Jack Steven
A Swallow
Joey
Scott Selwood
Wells
Rich
Van Berlo
Hallahan
Clay Smith (knee??)
Acres
Newton
Biggs
Hartung
Jed Anderson
Misc rookies

[crowls]

having trouble deciding on fwd choices Mat?   
More listed than mids?   

I think as usual right rookies and breakout player choice will be the deciding factor.   Would like to see a list of potential break outs.
ie 20+ points over 2014?

[Mat0369]

I think the forwards present a lot better value for money. A few of those guys are DPP players but I just listed them in their position as forwards. I will probably do a write up for why I am considering them. A lot of them when it comes down to it I probably won't go near for multiple reasons, but it is about weighing up the risk vs the reward. In these lists I haven't included rookies like Heeney, Brayshaw, Laverde, Goddard etc. which is why I have the msic rookies category.

I might start with the forwards now while I am watching the basketball

[The_Captain]

No surpised with the small back list. Backs are flowered this year!

[meow meow]

Cross Clay off the list. Won't be ready for round 1.

[Mat0369]

No surpised with the small back list. Backs are flowered this year!

A lot of those guys I don't think are worth their price either as I see a few on the decline in terms of points. With pre-season games coming around it will be interesting to see where guys are trialed and it might make me consider someone like Harry Taylor or Docherty/Newnes, but for the time being I would rather go cheaper at the position if I can and load up elsewhere.

[Mat0369]

Cross Clay off the list. Won't be ready for round 1.

That's disappointing for him, he is an awkward price in terms of fantasy but he is a talented kid. He struggled with his tank early and the injuries probably won't help

[Capper]

Im expecting Krezuer to get DPP in DT half way through the year as he will probably spend more time up front

You are going to be busy Matty watching all of them

[Mat0369]

Lids - Pretty obvious selection here, running mid that was always a lock as a defender, he should average over 100 so unless injury strikes I am likely to be starting him
BJ - Same as Lids, throw in the fact he was averaging quite a bit early in the season last year. He seems to start well then tail off from memory the last few seasons so if I pick him it will be early to get those big scores
Buddy - I mentioned this in another thread, Buddy plays the Bombers round 1, that is his team he destroys on a routine basis, he also only plays them once, if you want to be on the roller coaster you need to be there for the big scores and his big scores and that is going to be one

Harley - One of my faves, his body lets him down but the kid is a beast (as we saw against the Cats). I am pretty sure he can average 105, my questions are on his body so it might be a wait and see approach with Harley
Christensen - Body and role is the issue with this guy. New team that is now all of a sudden loaded in the midfield, if he plays his in and under role he had with the Cats he could be SC gold, it is just a question of health with his back/concussions
Swan - I am not sold on him, he had a huge drop off in scoring and people will say it is because he was injured. I will make 3 points with Swan, age catches up with everyone, as you get older you need to prepare your body better between games and he is not one to strike me as doing this and I don't think it is a coincidence that the most rotated player in the league struggled when the rotation on the cap came in.
Breust - There has always been more talk of him getting extra midfield time each season, if he can get his average up to 20 disposals a game he could be a good pick but he is more a guy that intrigues me that I probably won't touch until I see some proof
The Chad - Spent a lot of time forward which killed his scoring. Part of that was due to niggling early injuries, the other part of that was the emergence of Robbie Gray (well more Gray being healthy). Add in Monfries also injured for the majority of the season and a stronger midfield rotation for the Power it saw Chad spending more time away from the pill. If he was under 400k I would lean towards taking the risk but if he has a strong NAB with extended amounts of time in the middle I will have to seriously consider him
Tom Mitchell - Gun. The Swans are all about team balance so it will be interesting to see if he plays and if so where. In the guts he could easily push for a 100 average, in the NEAFL, well....The other problem with Tom is his body, he has never been healthy for a full season and at 400k I don't know if it is a risk worth taking
Walker - Tex was huge a couple of seasons ago when the Crows were a finals side. He will be going into the season healthy after having the knee reco in 2013 but a new coach and game plan means he is a giant question mark. KPP's are always risky, but if there is one that can average over 100 it will be Tex.
Craig Bird - He probably won't improve on his average, but unsubbed he averaged 90 for the season. He did seem to be tagging less then previous season but was still prone to the odd tagging job. If the Swans continue to win I would expect their players to still have a lot of points to go around, I probably won't pick him since he won't be top 6 and is too pricey to be a stepping stone in the high 400k region.
Taylor Adams - A young guy that showed plenty at the Giants in his first season. With Beams and Ball gone and Swan on the decline there is going to be room for some of these young Pies to step up. He is also probably too pricey to be a stepping stone close to 400k so unless there are really good signs that he is going to rack up the pill I will likely pass. He might push toward 90 this year but might be 1 or 2 seasons away from getting close to the ton
Wellingham - He is priced similarly to Adams and seems to be in pretty ishy form toward the end of the season. He could probably push towards a 90 average if he hits form and gets a good run but I doubt it. For all the hype he has never averaged over 82 so considering he is pricey and won't be a keeper he might be the first I cross off the list
Gus Monfries - Injury killed his season plain and simple. Priced at a 63 average (340k) and averaged 90 the previous season, he could be a very handy stepping stone although he would be a pricey one. He reminds me of JJK a couple seasons ago in terms of price
Jeremy Cameron - A combo of poor form and injuries really hurt Cameron, he is priced at 300k though. Many thought he would increase his 70 average from a couple of seasons ago but he went backwards. However, no Boyd, Patton with a knee, Giles gone, something tells me Cameron is going to get the majority of the delivery from a midfield that now has Ryan Griffen. He probably won't be a premium, but if we are looking at stepping stones he fits the bill. I will be keeping my eye on him come NAB cup
Ziebell - He has always been highly rated but injuries and suspension have killed him through his career. He would be a pretty big risk in hoping he can get everything right, but it will be interesting to see how he fares in the NAB where he sucked a few in to getting him last year..
Tom Bell - He is the human wrecking ball. A huuuuuuuggggggggeeeeee midfielder and one of my fav players at the club with the way he goes about it. With Brock and Robbo gone I think he cements his spot in the 22 running through the guts. He obviously has ability but hasn't had it all click yet. At 343k I will probably prefer Monfries, but don't be surprised by a 90 average for Tom Bell. He can butcher the ball, but he also wins the hard ball and has a big motor, he can also kick goal which is handy. He has had a few broken fingers/hands the last couple of seasons which has also seen him miss games

I will be continuing the other guys in another post

[Mat0369]

Im expecting Krezuer to get DPP in DT half way through the year as he will probably spend more time up front

You are going to be busy Matty watching all of them

If the coach tanks Kreuze will play up forward, if he actually tries to keep his job he will be smart and play Kreuze in the ruck. Carlton were desperate for a competent ruck with the hack patrol of Warnock and Wood, plus Kreuze can't work in tandem with them and it makes the forward line too tall. You ideally want Kreuze in the ruck with Levi and Hendo up forward and Levi spells Kreuze in the ruck. Levi is better then Wood and Warnock combined so you can't push him out of the team for one of the mega spuds

I watched a lot of the NAB cup a couple years ago, I think that is why I did so well in SC that year, I think they have gone back to that formula so I will probably spend most of my weekends come Feb on the couch watching Footy. I will just make notes on guys I like and see how many of them impress me.

[creeker]

Cross Clay off the list. Won't be ready for round 1.

@ meow meow. Thoughts on J Johannisen with Missy now missing !

[Mat0369]

Garlett - New team, playing in a position they desperately need. Priced at about 260k so he is a stepping stone player. I expect Jeffy to try and impress early and when he has a good season he generally starts well. He averaged a ton through the first 10 rounds of 2013 and if we can get something similar he will be brilliant for cash generation. He is a confidence player so if he is looking good in the NAB he is one guy that it will translate early into the year. It is not about what he averages come seasons end with Jeff because he isn't a keeper, but if he gets you that production early you are in front of the competition with a very handy point of difference. 
Nick Graham- Graham has been really good at VFL level for the Blues the last couple of seasons, when he has come into the seniors it has generally been as the sub. I have always seen him as Brocks replacement, so with Brock gone, the plodder of Nick Graham should hopefully see some more game time in the 1's. I was using the Fanplanner when I made this list and it has him as DPP but he is actually just a pure mid. This has changed my thinking on him, if he was DPP I would seriously consider him at his price, but as a pure mid not so much. I would rather save same cash and go Van Berlo
Jed Lamb - He was rated by the Swans and went to the Giants for a crack at playing a bit more which never eventuated. He is an awkward price but he can score ok when he gets a crack at it. I just don't know if he will be getting games which is the first big cross against his name
Chris Knights - Knights is a gun, just very injury prone. At under 230k, if he is fit for round 1 he has to be considered since he has the ability to ton up on a regular basis, it is just he hasn't been on the park on a regular basis.
Vardy - Probably won't be ready early but he is talented relatively cheap. I don't know how Geelong plan on structuring up and when Vardy plays I don't know if can average more then 50 after a long layoff. It will hurt in terms of cash generation
Reid - Well he is injured again, but based on price he has to be looked at if he is ready to go round 1. I still probably won't touch him because he seems a guy that might average 60ish just because he might end up in lock down roles
Sylvia - I read he turned up fat for pre-season so what a great start already. On talent, he could at least average 80, on application, I might consider Dawson ahead of him. Not good signs already for Col
Salem - I really like him and he seems like a Paul Roos type of player. He was subbed a lot so he could build up a tank, but when he got going he could play. His 2nd year in the system could see him boost his average and with a crop of new kids getting the vest he should bump up the average.
Dennis - He can probably average 60 for the season and if the sub rule is abolished that will help him out as well. I don't know if he will get games or how many, but on price he could be good for cash generation
Blease - Well, he can run fast. Geelong need pace so that might help him get a game. If he is named round 1 and the sub rule is abolished I will look at him, but he is selfish and doesn't work defensively. His selfishness also sees him have a high clanger rate and the fact he is also an uncontested player. It looks like a bad recipe for SC

Forwards part 3 coming up

[Vinny]

Awesome work man.

[Mat0369]

Membrey - So he is expected to get games at the Saints, but a young KPP guy in a potentially crappy Saints line up might mean bad news for scoring. He is coming under consideration but I want him to wow me with his NAB performances because from the small AFL sample size I don't know if he can make an impact right away. There might be a couple of other cheaper guys that can average higher.
Kommer - He is still recovering from injury but I loved him in my side a couple of seasons ago. He tackles and impacts plays which is SC gold, he is also pretty cheap and has a mature body with a full season of AFL experience. If fit I would prefer him over Membrey at this point
Clark - Body and mind the issue here, he can play, no doubt about it, even if he only averages 60 he will generate cash which is what we want. I want to see him play in the NAB before even looking at him though due to the past issues. The word navicular was never good when talked about with big guys and that was one of the issues Mitch had
Saad - Welcome back Ahmed, cheaper then Membrey with AFL experience. He also has a chip on his shoulder so if he is named for round 1 he could be very handy early in the season
Brandon Jack - The younger Jack is still working on improving his game and was a sub a fair bit when he was in the 1's last year. He has shown flashes of ability and if the Swans want to inject more pace into the team Jack could be a handy rookie priced player at some point next season, especially if the sub vest is gone
Robbie Tarrant - With the pick up of Waite and the emergence of Ben Brown I don't know how Tarrant fits in with the Roos. He had an entire season that was injury effected last year and he now starts priced at under 150k. Yes he is a KPP, but if he is named round 1 you would say he has solid JS as long as his body holds up. As an expensive F7 he could be a great option since he will have good job security and earn some cash along the way.
Karnezis - He burnt me in 2013, I was pretty pissed the entire season I had him in my starting team instead of Dwyer and I don't know if he fits in at the Pies. If he does get a gig I will look at his first two games before bringing him in because I would rather trade him in then trade him out once he spuds up again
Hogan - The most talked about rookie last season is now looking good to go this year. He is in front in terms of development compared to your usual young guy, if he is named round 1 I would rather him over someone like Karnezis, even if the ceiling does look like a 60 early in a young key forwards career. It is about the cash generation
Harper - Well he is cheap, so there is that. I think he has gone backward in his development, but if he is named early with no sub rule around he could be someone to consider
Menzel x2 - The older Menz is coming of nth knee reco. He is cheap, but his knees are shot, I don't know how good a pick he will be, the younger will be needed as a crumbing forward now more then ever with Carlton losing Jeffy and bringing in a spuddy Tutt as a replacement. There will be more midfield minutes up for grabs and if he looks to get some in the NAB he could be worth considering. I think he might be too expensive though
Lambert - My pick of the basement rookies. I wanted him at Carlton pretty badly, he is a half forward/mid and this is something Richmond lacks in terms of quality. He should have been drafted already and if he can get a game round 1 I am locking him in. Even a 50 average at his price should be enough to get a nice little cash boost

I'll do the other positions another day

[Capper]

Wow just realised Tom Bell is a fwd. He is a lock now for me