Goldstein V Maric V Naitanui

[nrich102]

"Guiz, don't pick a premium because the new rules will see them lose points!!"

*picks a midpricer who will lose just as many points, so the price difference and point difference between them is ultimately unchanged*

- 90% of FF.

Thats a stupid statement. You pick premiums to score, not to make money.

[H1bb3i2d]

"Guiz, don't pick a premium because the new rules will see them lose points!!"

*picks a midpricer who will lose just as many points, so the price difference and point difference between them is ultimately unchanged*

- 90% of FF.

Thats a stupid statement. You pick premiums to score, not to make money.

Yes. But if Goldy averages 105 instead of 110...

and Kreuz only averages 85 instead of 90...

And Goldy goes down in value $30k more...

And Kreuz makes $30k less...

a) the new rules won't change the net points scored

b) the new rules won't change the net money made

It's not stupid. Midpricers provide as much less value now as premiums are overpriced, they don't magically escape this new points drop. The only difference is between which players will be affected more or less, which yes is important, but on the gross assumption they're all affected the same, my point stands.

[Ricochet]

"Guiz, don't pick a premium because the new rules will see them lose points!!"

*picks a midpricer who will lose just as many points, so the price difference and point difference between them is ultimately unchanged*

- 90% of FF.

Thats a stupid statement. You pick premiums to score, not to make money.

Yes. But if Goldy averages 105 instead of 110...

and Kreuz only averages 85 instead of 90...

And Goldy goes down in value $30k more...

And Kreuz makes $30k less...

a) the new rules won't change the net points scored

b) the new rules won't change the net money made

It's not stupid. Midpricers provide as much less value now as premiums are overpriced, they don't magically escape this new points drop. The only difference is between which players will be affected more or less, which yes is important, but on the gross assumption they're all affected the same, my point stands.

Those midpricers are still cheap though and will make money man. I'm still kinda sold on the midprice strategy

[nrich102]

Read  your state meant wrong, Im stupid  :P

Thought you were saying to pick mid pricers rather than point out the floors in that.

Sorry buddy, I should really lear to read one day.

[H1bb3i2d]

Read  your state meant wrong, Im stupid  :P

Thought you were saying to pick mid pricers rather than point out the floors in that.

Sorry buddy, I should really lear to read one day.

Hahahaha all good mate, yeah I started to think you might have got itt backwards after I posted it...

And Ric, and anyone else, if you genuinely think midpricers are the way to go, then 100% go for it. But if you only changed your minds because of the rule changes, and I know many have, all I'm saying is the negatives will apply 100% as much to them as well. Basically, CD are ripping off out ruck line 15 points per week, and no strategy will avoid that.

[Ricochet]

Read  your state meant wrong, Im stupid  :P

Thought you were saying to pick mid pricers rather than point out the floors in that.

Sorry buddy, I should really lear to read one day.

Hahahaha all good mate, yeah I started to think you might have got itt backwards after I posted it...

And Ric, and anyone else, if you genuinely think midpricers are the way to go, then 100% go for it. But if you only changed your minds because of the rule changes, and I know many have, all I'm saying is the negatives will apply 100% as much to them as well. Basically, CD are ripping off out ruck line 15 points per week, and no strategy will avoid that.

Yeh agree man. That's why I'm sticking with my original strat

[GCSkiwi]

Read  your state meant wrong, Im stupid  :P

Thought you were saying to pick mid pricers rather than point out the floors in that.

Sorry buddy, I should really lear to read one day.

Hahahaha all good mate, yeah I started to think you might have got itt backwards after I posted it...

And Ric, and anyone else, if you genuinely think midpricers are the way to go, then 100% go for it. But if you only changed your minds because of the rule changes, and I know many have, all I'm saying is the negatives will apply 100% as much to them as well. Basically, CD are ripping off out ruck line 15 points per week, and no strategy will avoid that.

I'm struggling with my decision for R2, opinion seems divided betwenn people going set and forget or 2 midpricers, haven't seen a lot of 1 keeper/1 mid pricer ideas.

Here's the way I'm seeing it - the new rules mean that someone like Goldy is no longer really underpriced, He should score around his price point, maybe +2points at best... So basically you're paying for what you get with Goldy, whereas with someone like Leuey/Kreuzer you'll score less points for sure, but even with the changes he's still underpriced, so his value will still go up, and theoretically I can invest the price difference elsewhere to make up the points I'm missing.

The only combo I think can really be considered as set and forget are Goldy and Sauce, but that's a lot of money to sink into rucks especially when Sauce will almost surely lose value. Maric, NicNat, Mummy, Sandi all have had injury interruptions in the past few years, Martin is at this point unproven but could well be worth a risk - still not set and forget though. So even if you pick a GoldNat or GoldMullet or GoldMum you have to consider there's still a change you'll be let down by that second man.
If I go GoldBerger or GoldKreuz I know I'm not gonna be getting great scores from my R2 but it's someone making a bit of money who I already know I'm gonna trade, I'm just hoping they go for say 8+ rounds for me to gain some value on them, make some money on a rook, but also importantly gauge who the best companion ruck might be for Goldy under the new rules - how do you attach a value to that?

[ben_020285]

I think R1/R2 is the toughest decision that we have for our sides this year. There's no right or wrong way of going about it and every combo has their pros and cons.

I have had all of Goldy, Maric, Nic Nat, Kreuzer and Leuey as either R1 or R2 at some stage and the current setup that I have is in no way locked in.

I still believe that with whichever combo you choose it's important to have a RUC/FWD link unless you're prepared to burn through trades.

The new ruck rules will result in the mean average for ruckman dropping considerably but I think it is just a very small part of the puzzle and I wouldn't focus too much on it to be honest. Yes players like Sauce and Mumford will most likely have a steep drop in average/price and Goldy might stay around the same average/price but it may not be worth picking up Kreuzer and/or Leuey just because it's likely that they will increase in price. I don't think either Kreuzer or Leuey will be keepers so keep that in mind if you are deciding to start with them. If you're ok with that then go for it.

The other key thing to remember is that if you go with either Leuey or Kreuzer or both then if either of them get injured and they haven't yet made much money then you are going to find it extremely difficult to afford a decent replacement. I think it's ok to go for one of them as long as you have a RUC/FWD link but I think going with both of them is playing with fire and has the potential to completely derail your season.

[djbics]

Read  your state meant wrong, Im stupid  :P

Thought you were saying to pick mid pricers rather than point out the floors in that.

Sorry buddy, I should really lear to read one day.

Hahahaha all good mate, yeah I started to think you might have got itt backwards after I posted it...

And Ric, and anyone else, if you genuinely think midpricers are the way to go, then 100% go for it. But if you only changed your minds because of the rule changes, and I know many have, all I'm saying is the negatives will apply 100% as much to them as well. Basically, CD are ripping off out ruck line 15 points per week, and no strategy will avoid that.

Everything you say there is 100% correct Hibberd, the only reason I am going with the mid-priced strategy (well I really dont think NN is mid-priced but thats semantics) is the initial money saved by not going with a premium in the ruck can be used on other lines where the new ruck rule will not affect scoring.  It's obvious that the ruck rule will affect all the rucks including the mid-pricers, but I'd rather use that cash on another premium mid who is not going to drop points, and have a stepping stone mid-priced ruck who I can upgrade to a premium ruck later on when all the prices have been adjusted to better suit their scoring capacity for this season.  Everyone has their own strategies though, and I'll be interested to see how things pan out across the season

[Doggoneit]

Everything you say there is 100% correct Hibberd, the only reason I am going with the mid-priced strategy (well I really dont think NN is mid-priced but thats semantics) is the initial money saved by not going with a premium in the ruck can be used on other lines where the new ruck rule will not affect scoring.  It's obvious that the ruck rule will affect all the rucks including the mid-pricers, but I'd rather use that cash on another premium mid who is not going to drop points, and have a stepping stone mid-priced ruck who I can upgrade to a premium ruck later on when all the prices have been adjusted to better suit their scoring capacity for this season.  Everyone has their own strategies though, and I'll be interested to see how things pan out across the season

Nailed it djbics - that's it in a nutshell

[crowls]

Leuenberger - Don't think he can average over 80 with Martin in the side. It's as simple as that.
Kreuzer - Had him in my side initially but Mick has plans to play him forward (Will have to wait until Nab Cup to see his actual role)
Bellchambers - In my forward line at the moment

This ^

I think they will just be frustrating.
If they would both play lone ruckman they would both be in my side but that's not going to be the case so I can see them just being frustrating and awkward to upgrade

totally agree,   started with goldy/maric/minson with leuy or Kurz and belly in fwds.  Now believe 2 premo rucks in maric/nicnat or goldy nicnat best value combination.   i would rather have Tmitch in forwards than belly.    Realise I may have to trade but all those with Luey and Kruze will as well.

[Vulpes]

While what you said was true Hibberd, and I am still keen on NicNat Goldy at thsi stage. I think there are a few qualifications to be made:

The ruck rule will reduce scores as a percentage (dependant on their hit out to advantage rate). Goldy and Kreuz aren't scoring the same amount of points from hit outs, so if we drop their hit outs scores by 10% Goldy will be hit harder in terms of points and dollars.

The second thing to consider is that most of the current ruck premiums are hit out beasts. Using the example of Goldy, the SCPaige table I linked had him scoring 55 ppg from hitouts last year. At this point most people are predicting that the mid pricers will be taking the ruck-forward role. Although traditionally less lucrative, this role would be less affected by the rule change.

The real nail in the coffin for mid pricers vs Premo/Cow has always been the extra trades required if they don't make it to premo status:
Mid Mid Mid Mid -> Premo Premo Premo Rook in up to 4 trades
VS
Premo Rook Premo Rook -> Premo Premo Premo Rook in 2 trades

The problem with picking set and forget rucks isn't just that you pay too much due to the new rule, but that the top 5 rucks will be even harder to pick than usual, which mitigates the trades you save by going Premo/Cow.

[RaisyDaisy]

NicNat having his best preseason yet

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/west-coast-ruckman-nic-naitanui-has-point-to-prove-after-best-preseason-yet/story-fni5faul-1227193381671

LOCKED

[Vinny]

Gonna average 370.

[AaronKirk]

I think R1/R2 is the toughest decision that we have for our sides this year. There's no right or wrong way of going about it and every combo has their pros and cons.

I have had all of Goldy, Maric, Nic Nat, Kreuzer and Leuey as either R1 or R2 at some stage and the current setup that I have is in no way locked in.

I still believe that with whichever combo you choose it's important to have a RUC/FWD link unless you're prepared to burn through trades.

The new ruck rules will result in the mean average for ruckman dropping considerably but I think it is just a very small part of the puzzle and I wouldn't focus too much on it to be honest. Yes players like Sauce and Mumford will most likely have a steep drop in average/price and Goldy might stay around the same average/price but it may not be worth picking up Kreuzer and/or Leuey just because it's likely that they will increase in price. I don't think either Kreuzer or Leuey will be keepers so keep that in mind if you are deciding to start with them. If you're ok with that then go for it.

The other key thing to remember is that if you go with either Leuey or Kreuzer or both then if either of them get injured and they haven't yet made much money then you are going to find it extremely difficult to afford a decent replacement. I think it's ok to go for one of them as long as you have a RUC/FWD link but I think going with both of them is playing with fire and has the potential to completely derail your season.

I'm going with a set + forget strategy. If Nic Nat or Goldy get injured I will have to burn a trade.

Would rather burn a trade replacing a set and forget ruck than having to burn 2 trades to upgrade a Fwd/ruck like Belly or Lycett etc who are not going to be good enough to be keepers.

The point I agree with is Leuey and Kreuz. Picking both is madness, Picking one is fine as long as you have plan in place if the rucks go balls up.