Goldstein V Maric V Naitanui

[meow meow]

Has Sandilands shrunk or something? He's the man.

[ben_020285]

Has Sandilands shrunk or something? He's the man.

I prefer Goldstein as he's cheaper, much younger and a lot less injury prone.

[meow meow]

Has Sandilands shrunk or something? He's the man.

I prefer Goldstein as he's cheaper, much younger and a lot less injury prone.

Cheaper because he averaged less. I don't think the injury prone tag applies anymore, played every game last year except for one he was rested in. He's fit and capable of playing out a whole season. No more injury prone than Mumford or Nic Nat but much more reliable than both in terms of scoring.

[djbics]

it is hard to pick them but

Goldy 2012 he had hamish Mcintosh so his role was stuffed up.
Goldy 2014 was playing injured and without it went 115.

would almost lock in a 110+ next year without the rule changes.

Yeah, Goldy is almost an exception to the rule, given that he only suffered a 6 point average drop from 2013 to 2014, and his 2014 season was affected by injury at the start.  The big unknown here is the difference to the rucks outputs the new rule will make. 

I'm still unsure if I have got my head completely around it, but as far as I'm aware this season rucks will receive 5 points instead of 3 for hit-outs to advantage, with no points being awarded for other hit-outs (where they were previously 1 point each).  I read somewhere that the league average for hit-outs to advantage was approx 30 percent of all hit-outs (I cant find the link so if anybody has a more accurate number feel free to correct that!).  Todd Goldstein averaged 34 hit-outs last season, which means he received on average 54 points from hit-outs under the old system. (34x0.3)x3=30.6 points for hit-outs to advantage plus 23.8 points from other hit-outs.  Under the new system he would receive (34x0.3)x5= 51. 

Now this would seem pretty irrelevant, but an automatic 4/5 point per game drop in average before the season even starts based upon last year's stats seems to cancel out any increase he may receive if he plays a full injury free season.  And all that's based upon a player who I believe is underpriced, the swing will be even worse should your pick suffer a 10-15 point drop as seems to be the trend I posted above.  Add the 5 point deduction and suddenly your seemingly safe 'premium' who cost you 525k plus, is averaging 15-20 points behind the leading rucks. 

If anyone has a link to the correct percentages for hit-out to advantage versus hit-outs, I'm happy to crunch some numbers and give a comparison of the top rucks scores for last season under the old system compared to the new.  I just think this area could be where some players can grab a massive advantage over the year, just food for thought  ;)

[djbics]

Oh, and I know that 54 to 51 is only a difference of 3 points per game but that doesn't take into account rounding up of averages plus scaling, which will be another ball game this season too...... plus my maths is pretty sketchy at the best of times too :P

Sandi's form line for interest sake

2011 - 110
2012 - 112
2013 - 64
2014 - 108

[djbics]

Todd wishes he averaged 30% hitouts to advantage. Try 25%.

Thanks meow meow.

Old system (34x.25)x 3 + 23.8 = 49.3
new system (34x.25)x 5 =42.5

Difference of about 7 points per game

[meow meow]

Todd wishes he averaged 30% hitouts to advantage. Try 25%.

Thanks meow meow.

Old system (34x.25)x 3 + 23.8 = 49.3
new system (34x.25)x 5 =42.5

Difference of about 7 points per game

Haha it's actually 29%, I was just trying to get Holz to bite.

[ben_020285]

Has Sandilands shrunk or something? He's the man.

I prefer Goldstein as he's cheaper, much younger and a lot less injury prone.

Cheaper because he averaged less. I don't think the injury prone tag applies anymore, played every game last year except for one he was rested in. He's fit and capable of playing out a whole season. No more injury prone than Mumford or Nic Nat but much more reliable than both in terms of scoring.

So one injury free season makes him no longer injury prone? Nah, I don't think so.

He played 13 games in 2011, 12 in 2012 and 7 in 2013. That's injury prone.

[djbics]

Todd wishes he averaged 30% hitouts to advantage. Try 25%.

Thanks meow meow.

Old system (34x.25)x 3 + 23.8 = 49.3
new system (34x.25)x 5 =42.5

Difference of about 7 points per game

Haha it's actually 29%, I was just trying to get Holz to bite.

Bwahaha, well I can see it dropping to 25% anyway this season, so the maths still stands  ;)

[Vulpes]

There's an article on this stuff on SCPaige: http://www.scpaige.com.au/bargains-gambles-set-forgets-2/
It has a few useful stats on the top ruckmen at the bottom.
Goldtein scored 2*211+716 from taps last year, which would be 5*211 in the new system. Losing 83 points for the season isn't a huge drop when you think of it as ~4ppg. I think Goldy's reduced scoring output will probably just match him being slightly underpriced. Most players should drop though.

This change must drastically increase the variance in ruck scores, which might make picking up premos mid season a bit easier.

[Holz]

Todd wishes he averaged 30% hitouts to advantage. Try 25%.

Thanks meow meow.

Old system (34x.25)x 3 + 23.8 = 49.3
new system (34x.25)x 5 =42.5

Difference of about 7 points per game

Haha it's actually 29%, I was just trying to get Holz to bite.

ill let it go, I did my bit. If people don't want to pick up Goldy than that helps my pursuit for overall.

I have a sneaky feeling you might be a Goldy owner Meow ;)

[djbics]

There's an article on this stuff on SCPaige: http://www.scpaige.com.au/bargains-gambles-set-forgets-2/
It has a few useful stats on the top ruckmen at the bottom.
Goldtein scored 2*211+716 from taps last year, which would be 5*211 in the new system. Losing 83 points for the season isn't a huge drop when you think of it as ~4ppg. I think Goldy's reduced scoring output will probably just match him being slightly underpriced. Most players should drop though.

This change must drastically increase the variance in ruck scores, which might make picking up premos mid season a bit easier.

Thanks Vulpes, that table at the end is actually pretty handy for working out the exact differences, good pick up :)

[meow meow]

Todd wishes he averaged 30% hitouts to advantage. Try 25%.

Thanks meow meow.

Old system (34x.25)x 3 + 23.8 = 49.3
new system (34x.25)x 5 =42.5

Difference of about 7 points per game

Haha it's actually 29%, I was just trying to get Holz to bite.

ill let it go, I did my bit. If people don't want to pick up Goldy than that helps my pursuit for overall.

I have a sneaky feeling you might be a Goldy owner Meow ;)

Not yet. I'll trade Mummy to him when Mummy gets injured.

1: STK: Hickey - Mummy will slaughter him. They both went huge last time since Hickey was scared to play at the same end of the ground.

2: MELB: Fkn retire already Jamar

3: SYD: MIKE PYKE!

4: GCFC: 2 skinny doges

5: WCE: NN will probably be injured by then

6: HAW: Poor stoppage rucks

7: CARL: Little Kreuzer or useless Warnock/Wood

8: ADEL: First real challenge

9: WB: Tough

10: BL: Stefan isn't even a ruck, he's a big midfielder

11: Collingwood: Both still developing

12: North Melbourne: Tough

[djbics]

2: MELB: Fkn retire already Jamar

This!  Gawn's beard is better anyway....

[H1bb3i2d]

"Guiz, don't pick a premium because the new rules will see them lose points!!"

*picks a midpricer who will lose just as many points, so the price difference and point difference between them is ultimately unchanged*

- 90% of FF.