Goldstein V Maric V Naitanui

[H1bb3i2d]

With this new ruck stuff, I'm now starting to strongly consider trading Goldy to Maric!! He does as much work around the ground as anyone else. I liked him already, but though he might just be a few too many points short to be worth it. Now maybe not...

[nrich102]

These new rules will hurt Nic Nat, pick him at your own peril.

[Footyrulz]

These new rules will hurt Nic Nat, pick him at your own peril.

Same effect on Maric and Goldy.

Goldy drops by 4, NicNat by 5 and Maric by 7.

[nrich102]

These new rules will hurt Nic Nat, pick him at your own peril.

Same effect on Maric and Goldy.

Goldy drops by 4, NicNat by 5 and Maric by 7.

Maric and Goldy don't seem like the kind of players who kick the winning goal after the siren much  :o. Maybe I just don't pay enough attention to teams outside of Brisbane, and Nic Nat seems to be well known, so the news just focus' on him.

Speaking of this new rule, if Ash McGrath was still playing he's be flowered  :o

[Footyrulz]

These new rules will hurt Nic Nat, pick him at your own peril.

Same effect on Maric and Goldy.

Goldy drops by 4, NicNat by 5 and Maric by 7.

Maric and Goldy don't seem like the kind of players who kick the winning goal after the siren much  :o. Maybe I just don't pay enough attention to teams outside of Brisbane, and Nic Nat seems to be well known, so the news just focus' on him.

Speaking of this new rule, if Ash McGrath was still playing he's be flowered  :o

Oh sorry I thought we were talking about the new ruck point scoring!

In terms of the weighting rules, I wouldn't not pick players just because of that. Who knows whether he was actually affected positively by the mulptiplier, and who knows whether it will stay the same this year.

[nrich102]

These new rules will hurt Nic Nat, pick him at your own peril.

Same effect on Maric and Goldy.

Goldy drops by 4, NicNat by 5 and Maric by 7.

Maric and Goldy don't seem like the kind of players who kick the winning goal after the siren much  :o. Maybe I just don't pay enough attention to teams outside of Brisbane, and Nic Nat seems to be well known, so the news just focus' on him.

Speaking of this new rule, if Ash McGrath was still playing he's be flowered  :o

Oh sorry I thought we were talking about the new ruck point scoring!

In terms of the weighting rules, I wouldn't not pick players just because of that. Who knows whether he was actually affected positively by the mulptiplier, and who knows whether it will stay the same this year.

Yeah, should have made it more specific, sorry about that.

[elephants]

Someone posted this article in another thread and although it's from the 2012 season it gives an idea of which of the older ruckmen are accurate with their taps.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-04-26/player-ratings-frequently-asked-questions

That thread also mentions a hit out to disadvantage might be negative points, which would push the hit to advantage % required much higher.

Nice Holz , A fully fit Nic Nat has excitement written all over it.

That article is why im picking Nic Nat to join GOldy

The main reason why im picking nic nat at the moment is the amount of bias. I dont buy that he is actually that could be he seems to get points for no reason.

Its the same for Fyfe, he seems to pick up Fyfe points each game and thats exactly Nic Nat. plays an average game somehow pulls a 120 out of nowhere.

No such thing as Goldy points ;)

nope he earns his fair and square. In fact he probably deserves higher scores.

Well I think Nic Nat deserves more and Goldy less...

[meow meow]

Someone posted this article in another thread and although it's from the 2012 season it gives an idea of which of the older ruckmen are accurate with their taps.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-04-26/player-ratings-frequently-asked-questions

That thread also mentions a hit out to disadvantage might be negative points, which would push the hit to advantage % required much higher.

Nice Holz , A fully fit Nic Nat has excitement written all over it.

That article is why im picking Nic Nat to join GOldy

The main reason why im picking nic nat at the moment is the amount of bias. I dont buy that he is actually that could be he seems to get points for no reason.

Its the same for Fyfe, he seems to pick up Fyfe points each game and thats exactly Nic Nat. plays an average game somehow pulls a 120 out of nowhere.

How can you not understand the scoring system by now? SC is a contested players game. 72% of NN's possessions are contested. Fyfe averaged 27 possessions at 59% contested, averaged the 3rd most contested possessions per game behind GAJ and JPK (better DE than both). Factor in 20+ goals too and the stats show he is an absolute gun!

[Doggoneit]

does anyone have any stats on Hits Outs to Disadvantage?

If Goldy has 33% to advantage - what is the remainder - 50% neutral and 17% to disadvantage ?

conceivably just because they have a bigger HOtA they may also have a bigger HOtDA

Eg.
Ruckman 1 has 33% HOtA but 33% HOtDA

Ruckman 2 has 30% HOtA but only 15% HOtDA

If they both have a similar no. of Total Hit Outs than Ruckman 2 should score much better.

[GM]

does anyone have any stats on Hits Outs to Disadvantage?

If Goldy has 33% to advantage - what is the remainder - 50% neutral and 17% to disadvantage ?

conceivably just because they have a bigger HOtA they may also have a bigger HOtDA

Eg.
Ruckman 1 has 33% HOtA but 33% HOtDA

Ruckman 2 has 30% HOtA but only 15% HOtDA

If they both have a similar no. of Total Hit Outs than Ruckman 2 should score much better.

Not anymore 5 points for HTA & 0 for any other hit out , apparently.

[Footyrulz]

does anyone have any stats on Hits Outs to Disadvantage?

If Goldy has 33% to advantage - what is the remainder - 50% neutral and 17% to disadvantage ?

conceivably just because they have a bigger HOtA they may also have a bigger HOtDA

Eg.
Ruckman 1 has 33% HOtA but 33% HOtDA

Ruckman 2 has 30% HOtA but only 15% HOtDA

If they both have a similar no. of Total Hit Outs than Ruckman 2 should score much better.

There are no stats revealed, but they are irrelevant anyway. HO to advantage are just 0 points.

[H1bb3i2d]

I feel like NicNat gets his points during a match, not just after scaling at the end. Same with Fyfe. They're always massive pre-scaled scores, so I don't see the rules affecting them too much, if at all.

[Doggoneit]

does anyone have any stats on Hits Outs to Disadvantage?

If Goldy has 33% to advantage - what is the remainder - 50% neutral and 17% to disadvantage ?

conceivably just because they have a bigger HOtA they may also have a bigger HOtDA

Eg.
Ruckman 1 has 33% HOtA but 33% HOtDA

Ruckman 2 has 30% HOtA but only 15% HOtDA

If they both have a similar no. of Total Hit Outs than Ruckman 2 should score much better.

Not anymore 5 points for HTA & 0 for any other hit out , apparently.

Thanks DM and rulz for clarifying.

just needed to get my head around the math.

[djbics]

Hi Guys,

Great Topic, and one I've been pondering over a fair bit myself.  The biggest problem i see with the whole 'set and forget' theory (of which I've been a pretty massive user of in the past few years) is the massive variation in scores for individual 'premium' ruckmen from year to year.  I did a bit of research on this last year when most people were saying to stay clear of Sam Jacobs due to his drop in form for 2013.  For those that are interested here's a snapshot of the form lines of a few of the relevant rucks for this season (i've rounded the averages to make it easier to read) ...

Name                       2011           2012          2013      2014
Todd Goldstein           113             93             113        107
Ivan Maric                   69             113             97         100
Nic Naitanui                 94             114             96          91
Sam Jacobs                 93             101             85         115
Shane Mumford          113             91              92         113

Now I know injuries need to be taken into account, but what I find fascinating is that not one of the above have been able to string together two 110+ seasons back to back.  Read into that what you will, but for mine I reckon you need to find value in the rucks, because the trend seems to be....... pick a previous season 110+ ruck at top price and you're more than likely going to have a sub 100 ruck who has lost mega-value by seasons end.  Oh, and for what it's worth I voted Nic-Nat and Goldy though I'll be only taking one of them.

[Holz]

Hi Guys,

Great Topic, and one I've been pondering over a fair bit myself.  The biggest problem i see with the whole 'set and forget' theory (of which I've been a pretty massive user of in the past few years) is the massive variation in scores for individual 'premium' ruckmen from year to year.  I did a bit of research on this last year when most people were saying to stay clear of Sam Jacobs due to his drop in form for 2013.  For those that are interested here's a snapshot of the form lines of a few of the relevant rucks for this season (i've rounded the averages to make it easier to read) ...

Name                       2011           2012          2013      2014
Todd Goldstein           113             93             113        107
Ivan Maric                   69             113             97         100
Nic Naitanui                 94             114             96          91
Sam Jacobs                 93             101             85         115
Shane Mumford          113             91              92         113

Now I know injuries need to be taken into account, but what I find fascinating is that not one of the above have been able to string together two 110+ seasons back to back.  Read into that what you will, but for mine I reckon you need to find value in the rucks, because the trend seems to be....... pick a previous season 110+ ruck at top price and you're more than likely going to have a sub 100 ruck who has lost mega-value by seasons end.  Oh, and for what it's worth I voted Nic-Nat and Goldy though I'll be only taking one of them.

it is hard to pick them but

Goldy 2012 he had hamish Mcintosh so his role was stuffed up.
Goldy 2014 was playing injured and without it went 115.

would almost lock in a 110+ next year without the rule changes.