Goldstein V Maric V Naitanui

[Doggoneit]

hmmm

going with Leuey (or Kruz) lets you assess the new scoring for rucks and see who it actually suits and who it doesnt so you can trade them up the "right" ruck.

[Woppa15]

hmmm

going with Leuey (or Kruz) lets you assess the new scoring for rucks and see who it actually suits and who it doesnt so you can trade them up the "right" ruck.

Assuming you haven't spent the money saved to strengthen other lines, which in my opinion would be one of the key reason to go the less expensive ruck options. Or are you going to keep enough money in the bank to upgrade said ruck for the first month of footy while you assess the outcome of the new ruck rules?

You need your cash to be earning points, waste of money and loss of points having a chunk of it sitting in the bank...

[GCSkiwi]

Kreuza and leuy are going to have to b upgraded and that is two trades saved IMO

... by going lighter elsewhere. You don't save any trades, just reallocate where you're going to have to make them

yeah but Burger will outscore Geary by less than goldy will outscore shaw.

Agree. I'm just struggling with the fact that at the moment my backline has only 1 keeper and too many saints haha.

hmmm

going with Leuey (or Kruz) lets you assess the new scoring for rucks and see who it actually suits and who it doesnt so you can trade them up the "right" ruck.

Assuming you haven't spent the money saved to strengthen other lines, which in my opinion would be one of the key reason to go the less expensive ruck options. Or are you going to keep enough money in the bank to upgrade said ruck for the first month of footy while you assess the outcome of the new ruck rules?

You need your cash to be earning points, waste of money and loss of points having a chunk of it sitting in the bank...

I think the point is more that if you pick a Goldy/NicNat combo with the idea of them both being keepers, what will you do if Goldy is going 105 and, NicNat is going 95, but Mummy, Sandi, Jacobs and Maric are all going 110+? Whereas if you pick Goldy and Kruze, you can stomach losing 5 points on Goldy, and you can pick up the in form rucks once you know who they are. It's a fair dose of luck involved, and I don't have much faith in the idea of "set an forget" rucks. I crunched the numbers last year when looking at whether or not Cox was worth picking up, he is the only ruckman who has consistently been in the top 5 rucks multiple years (>2) running. Now there's a rule change to affect ruck scoring, we can make educated guesses who that will help and who it will hurt but the reality is we'll only know by the end of the season. Now, I think it's pretty safe that Goldy, Maric and Nat will be right up there, but there's still Sauce, Mummy, Sandi, perhaps even Ryder or Minson could throw in a wildcard. If ALL of those guys are scoring within 5 points of each other by the end, I'll be surprised...

[Vulpes]

I think the main thing to consider for 2015 is the new ruck rule, and I think it's likely to decrease the average ruck score. I think this decrease has merit. As a very crude example Jacobs came =4th in the B&F, but was the top Adelaide supercoach scorer. The ruck line has cemented its place as second to midfielders in premium output and I don't think that is accurate with respect to who people perceive as the best players.

If the new ruck rule is a slight decrease in scores it will be better to invest elsewhere. A 5% drop in a premium is a lot worse than a 5% drop in a mid-pricer.

At the very least the new rule adds uncertainty. I know people are wary of starting Rocky or Beams because of the midfield shake up at Brisbane. The same goes for the rucks. Unless we can re-simulate every match from 2014 it is VERY hard to predict whose scores will be adversely affected.

Relating to the topic: I rate NicNat + mid-pricer. I think mid-pricers mitigate the risk of the ruck rule by putting less cash on the table and already having the assumption of a trade. NicNat is to me the least likely to be affected by the rules, with high adv% and lower reliance on hit outs full stop, and should be underpriced with Cox gone.

[nrich102]

Anyone but Naitanui. Goldy I think.

[GM]

I think the main thing to consider for 2015 is the new ruck rule, and I think it's likely to decrease the average ruck score. I think this decrease has merit. As a very crude example Jacobs came =4th in the B&F, but was the top Adelaide supercoach scorer. The ruck line has cemented its place as second to midfielders in premium output and I don't think that is accurate with respect to who people perceive as the best players.

If the new ruck rule is a slight decrease in scores it will be better to invest elsewhere. A 5% drop in a premium is a lot worse than a 5% drop in a mid-pricer.

At the very least the new rule adds uncertainty. I know people are wary of starting Rocky or Beams because of the midfield shake up at Brisbane. The same goes for the rucks. Unless we can re-simulate every match from 2014 it is VERY hard to predict whose scores will be adversely affected.

Relating to the topic: I rate NicNat + mid-pricer. I think mid-pricers mitigate the risk of the ruck rule by putting less cash on the table and already having the assumption of a trade. NicNat is to me the least likely to be affected by the rules, with high adv% and lower reliance on hit outs full stop, and should be underpriced with Cox gone.

The new rule gives 5 points for every tap to advantage. Looking at last years stats Jacobs was no 1 , Nic Nat was not in the Top10. Though I think Nic Nat will benefit.
I think it will favor Kruezer more than Berger aswell.

[Capper]

I agree with you Quinny that Goldie, NicNat and Maric are the best money for value rucks this year, with the new ruck scoring. Dont think Berger will average as much as these guys even though he is cheaper

[Vulpes]

Thanks for clarification GM. From memory last year's scoring was 1 for a Hit out and 3 for a tap to advantage? If we assume that a tap to advantage was worth a total of 3 rather than an additional 3, then a ruck needs a hit to advantage % of 33.3% to get the same score. I don't have a hit to advantage total for anyone except Jacobs (who was #1), but obviously Goldy must have a lower % because he had more taps total.

Jacobs had 763 hit outs with 257 to advantage, which is 33.7%, and his score would go up a fraction. Assuming he is the best tap ruckman in the comp then you'd expect most scores to fall a bit?

Someone posted this article in another thread and although it's from the 2012 season it gives an idea of which of the older ruckmen are accurate with their taps.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-04-26/player-ratings-frequently-asked-questions

That thread also mentions a hit out to disadvantage might be negative points, which would push the hit to advantage % required much higher.

[Holz]

Someone posted this article in another thread and although it's from the 2012 season it gives an idea of which of the older ruckmen are accurate with their taps.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-04-26/player-ratings-frequently-asked-questions

That thread also mentions a hit out to disadvantage might be negative points, which would push the hit to advantage % required much higher.

That article is why im picking Nic Nat to join GOldy

[GM]

Someone posted this article in another thread and although it's from the 2012 season it gives an idea of which of the older ruckmen are accurate with their taps.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-04-26/player-ratings-frequently-asked-questions

That thread also mentions a hit out to disadvantage might be negative points, which would push the hit to advantage % required much higher.

Nice Holz , A fully fit Nic Nat has excitement written all over it.

That article is why im picking Nic Nat to join GOldy

[Holz]

Someone posted this article in another thread and although it's from the 2012 season it gives an idea of which of the older ruckmen are accurate with their taps.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-04-26/player-ratings-frequently-asked-questions

That thread also mentions a hit out to disadvantage might be negative points, which would push the hit to advantage % required much higher.

Nice Holz , A fully fit Nic Nat has excitement written all over it.

That article is why im picking Nic Nat to join GOldy

The main reason why im picking nic nat at the moment is the amount of bias. I dont buy that he is actually that could be he seems to get points for no reason.

Its the same for Fyfe, he seems to pick up Fyfe points each game and thats exactly Nic Nat. plays an average game somehow pulls a 120 out of nowhere.

[GM]

Someone posted this article in another thread and although it's from the 2012 season it gives an idea of which of the older ruckmen are accurate with their taps.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-04-26/player-ratings-frequently-asked-questions

That thread also mentions a hit out to disadvantage might be negative points, which would push the hit to advantage % required much higher.

Nice Holz , A fully fit Nic Nat has excitement written all over it.

That article is why im picking Nic Nat to join GOldy

The main reason why im picking nic nat at the moment is the amount of bias. I dont buy that he is actually that could be he seems to get points for no reason.

Its the same for Fyfe, he seems to pick up Fyfe points each game and thats exactly Nic Nat. plays an average game somehow pulls a 120 out of nowhere.

No such thing as Goldy points ;)

[Holz]

Someone posted this article in another thread and although it's from the 2012 season it gives an idea of which of the older ruckmen are accurate with their taps.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2013-04-26/player-ratings-frequently-asked-questions

That thread also mentions a hit out to disadvantage might be negative points, which would push the hit to advantage % required much higher.

Nice Holz , A fully fit Nic Nat has excitement written all over it.

That article is why im picking Nic Nat to join GOldy

The main reason why im picking nic nat at the moment is the amount of bias. I dont buy that he is actually that could be he seems to get points for no reason.

Its the same for Fyfe, he seems to pick up Fyfe points each game and thats exactly Nic Nat. plays an average game somehow pulls a 120 out of nowhere.

No such thing as Goldy points ;)

nope he earns his fair and square. In fact he probably deserves higher scores.

[H1bb3i2d]

Can't see any reason not to go 2 set and forgets.

Leuey and Kreuz both have so many reasons not to pick them. They were being discussed when they were $250k in the fanplanner, but they're $100k more now.

On the other hand, Goldy, NicNat and Maric would all be pickable in nearly any position if available! They're so much better than the backs, even better than the forwards (110 averages vs 105s) and could arguably take a place in the midfield (Sauce and Mummy last season, Goldy in the second half of the '14, and NicNat at his best). They're huge point getters. AND they're underpriced, so why wouldn't you want to start with them??

[GoLions]

Been considering Maric lately, but think I'll play the ol' wait-and-see game with my R2

Goldy is locked and loaded.