Chowthorn - Risks And Safety

[lesleyryan]

Hey guys, this is my first post here so I thought I'd start off with a little bit of an introduction as I tend to float around a bit now after deciding to take 2015 as my first "serious" year of SuperCoach.

To start things off, the name of my team will be Chowthorn. I've dicked around a little bit on SuperCoach every now and again over the years for some fun but never really knew what I was doing, and on the back of some social banter from the boys at my local cricket club last year, I decided to make a bit of effort. My nickname at cricket is "Chow" in reference to Lesley Chow from the hangover, and I am a diehard Hawthorn supporter. Hence, Chowthorn.

Unfortunately however, despite a little interest I didn't really pick it up until midway during the season, and as you can imagine, the damage was  already done. I was able to trade heavily early on to correct my newbie mistakes, and started to make a late run at the back end of the season. Unfortunately I ran out of trades, and when Ablett went down, I was sitting with $750,000 in my midfield bench.

I've realized now that preseason research is vital, and having a good structure come round 1 is equally as important. And thus I will be presenting you my team with a brief, indepth analysis on most of my picks. The reason for this, is because my team has a copious amount of "risky midpricers" that could really go either way. I know the consequences could be ugly, and I am backing my research and judgment calls, and hopefully give you guys some insight to why I've made those decisions. I will try and keep each analysis short, I apologize in advance for any blocks of text! Let's get into it.

CHOWTHORN

In order of position; I will briefly explain my reasoning behind my picks, and also why I have opted for this pick over another. Won't cover rookies, as they are highly suspect to change and is based mostly on who will get the most game time.

EDITS

Leuenberger out for Bellchambers: I feel like score wise, there will be little difference here. With Bellchambers in my squad, I'm sitting on 123k in the bank, leaving me with more than enough to upgrade my second ruck to a premium early in the season. Much more value.

Defenders

Kade Simpson and Brodie Smith: I've got these guys together as they are both my "premium" backline picks and wanted to explain why I've gone with these guys. Nic Malceski was originally my premium defender here, and I also sat on Heath Shaw for a while. Although I feel like Malceski will play at or close too his current average, I think he's at his ceiling, and is my early upgrade target in the backline. I've backed these guys over Shaw for two reasons. The first being Shaw isn't getting any younger, he's pushing on and I feel like his best days are behind him. Smith has reportedly trained the house down preseason and I'm backing him to step up from his 2014 form, where as Simpson has been Mr. Reliable for a long time now.
Jack Newnes: Lock defender in most teams, and I'm on the bandwagon. If you're here reading this, chances are you know the song that the bandwagon is singing.
Shaun Higgins: Ah, feel the burn. Despite this being my first real crack at SuperCoach, I do follow footy, and boy is this kid injury prone, so I do know what you guys would have been through. I feel the move to North is really sitting well with Shaun, he's trained well during preseason and I'm taking the punt. We all know the capabilities this guy has if his body is right. My first of a few risks.
Garrick Ibbotson: Same boat as Higgins here. Played really good quality when he was up and going. Could be top 8 defenders if he returns to that form, but I feel it's at least a safe way to make me some cash at the very least. Backing him in, but I'm monitoring this spot in my team through the NAB games and will make my final call closer to round 1.
Brendan Whitecross: Although being a Hawthorn supporter, I've never considered him a fantastic player. But, Clarko loves him and he averaged well when he was playing consistent footy. This is pretty much dependent on whether or not he's picked round 1, rumors are that Birchall won't be ready and I'm thinking Whitecross could slip in and make me some early cash.

Considerable options: Curtly Hampton is verging a breakout and is good value along with Cameron Sutcliffe and Jarryn Geary. If Sam Fisher stays fit I feel like his average could get pretty solid as well. Tomas Bugg and Tayte Pears are also some left-field picks that could make it in here.

Midfielders

Gary Ablett and Scott Pendlebury: As with my backline, I've got these guys together to make it easier to explain these picks and why I haven't gone with either Tom Rockliff, Nat Fyfe or Dayne Beams. Fyfe has reportedly had a small hamstring strain in preseason. I have no doubt he will average at an elite level, but I'm feeling a slow start with an interrupted preseason. Another upgrade target. As for the others, I'm taking a "wait and see" approach. Both are upgrade targets, I'm just waiting to see how well they work together before committing to one or the other preseason. Ironic, considering my big gambles elsewhere!
Ollie Wines: Played an elite brand of footy last year, training the house down over there preseason and I can see him pushing his SC average into elite territory. Another player I can see boosting his average into elite numbers.
Andrew Swallow: Roos captain, broke down when he was on the verge of his breakout. Take away his first two games for match fitness and the skipper averaged 99.67 for the year, and 106 if you remove finals. Of those, he only dropped under 80 on three occasions. Throw a full preseason and a bit of hunger in there and I think Swallow will be pushing top 10 most points if he keeps healthy. Very affordable for that kinda possibility.
Daniel Rich: Very similar to Swallow and other players here, he started to look really promising before his injury. He's had a good preseason and will bounce back. That injury however has made him dirt cheap for this kind of talent and good value for money for mine. Will he be top 8? Doubtful. Will he make me some cash? I bloody well hope so.
Mitch Hallahan: Made the move across from my beloved Hawks and I think it will suit him well. Struggled to crack the 22 at Hawthorn, and the VFL Best and Fairest winner will prove his worth on Sunshine Coast and SuperCoach. Showed fantastic signs last year, including an 83 and 93 in our round 8 and 10 losses against Sydney and Port Adelaide. Won't see much vest time either.
Nathan Van Berlo: Whether he tags or not, he's still dirt cheap, he's proven himself already at this level and I think he's in the 22. Will make me some cash, how much is the only question. I'd prefer to spend the extra 100k here on a fallen veteran than a rookie who's yet to play against men.
Jed Anderson: Knocking on the door of selection before he went down last year. Been an incredible talent for us for a little while now, a full preseason puts him into the best 22 for mine. Will average about 80 and make me a lot of cash. Also another player featured a lot for SC this season.

Considerable Options: I had Daniel Wells in here for a while, but the old body is a worry. Still a classy footballer, but his best days are behind him for me. Steele Sidebottom and Luke Parker are two others I'm expecting to lift it to another level this year and push elite status. Dion Prestia was thrown around along with Toby Greene, but only time will tell there. Looking to upgrade my mid pricers to the likes of Fyfe, Rockliff, Beams and Selwood whenever I can.

Rucks

Nic Naitanui: Been a bit of an unearthed talent for a long time, and in contrast to his ruck skills he is fantastic on the ground, with fantastic clearances and contested possessions. With Cox gone, Nic will spend most of his time in the middle of the ground where he plays his best footy. If he stays healthy, he will push huge numbers this year.
Matthew Leuenberger: Also very similar to Nic, he will be pushing into the team due to opportunity and a good player like Leuy won't let that slip. Perhaps not setting the world alight, but a nice stepping stone. Also happy to go a midpriced second ruck here to give me a chance to see how the ruck changes pan out. Too risky to play set and forget with a new scoring dynamic here.

Considerable Options: Not really much here that interested me, Goldstein has a decent case and I think Bellchambers could do well too, but I feel like my picks are the best value here. They also have good bye rounds with 11 and 13, best starting combo for 2015 I feel. Will look to upgrade Luey into whoever seems to flourish best under the new scoring.

Forwards

Brett Deledio: Another player I'm backing to step up this year. Really adapted to his new role closer to goal at the end of last year and played some of his best footy to date. Backing him in to reproduce his form from his back half of the year.
Dustin Martin: Similar to his tiger teammate, I felt like he really started to get going towards the end of last year. I think it's taken a while for his mindset to be right but I feel like it's finally there. Also reportedly dominating preseason training. His potential is unquestioned, his talent is scary, and his scores will be phenomenal.
Devon Smith: This is the pick I am most excited about. Devon was an excitement machine last year, and despite being priced at a 91 average, his second half statistics are scary. From round 10, in thirteen games he averaged 107, and 120 in his last four games. In those 13 games, he dropped under 80 once, and surpassed 130 on three occasions. With three good seasons of footy under his belt (increasing SC average each year), I think 2015 could be the year that Devon really makes a name for himself. An incredible POD.
Marcus Bontompelli: Marcus showed signs of his fantastic potential last year, unforgettably the match winning goal against Melbourne. At such a light frame last year, he showed his ability to get the ball and shrug off his opponents. With a big preseason and a bit of size added, the Bon will improve on his form towards the end of last year and excite everyone with him in their SC forward line.
Mitch Clark and Nathan Krakouer: Similar to Van Berlo, I'm backing in the fallen veterans to make me cash at a similar price and a safer rate than rookies. Krakouer fits into Ports 22 for me (will watch over NAB) and Mitch Clark has already shown enough good signs up front for Geelong. Early trade-ins for me.

Considerable Options: Opted against Dane Swan as I feel he won't improve on his average from last year as much as he is hyped too. He's getting old and there will be a lot of young bodies around him, I feel like Devon and the Bon are better options. If Tom Mitchell gets game time he's a real contender,and Christiensen could find a nice home up north too. Claye Beams could be a nice way to make some cash early on with a bit of POD, reportedly training very well and could flourish in the company of his brother. Colin Sylvia is well underpriced, Jack Martin a nice smokey pick too.


Well there you have it, that's my team as it sits. I will undoubtedly be chopping and changing, making small edits here and there up until the first bounce of the season. I feel like I have a nice mixture of safety between premiums and rookies, with a lot of calculated risks around the mid pricers and plenty of POD. I've tried my best to keep this as neat as possible and the least "essay" as I could, but I really felt like sharing my insights as it allows for better feedback. Thanks for reading guys, hope you enjoyed my team. Wish me luck! :)

[GoLions]

Welcome to FanFooty! This is probably the best analysis of a team I've ever seen hahaha. Great stuff mate :)

As you've pointed out yourself, a couple of risky picks in there. The ones that I'd be hesitant with in particular would be;
Leuey - Not sure what his scoring ability will be like with Martin. Looked ok in first NAB game, both he and Martin are lining up against the Swans, so will keep an eye on him there
Bont - He'll be a star. But this year...not so sure. Especially with the likes of Lids and BJ gaining FWD status, not sure if he's worth the risk
Higgins - You've already said why :P
Wines - While I think he'll be a fantastic footballer, I'm not sure how well it will translate into his SC scoring. Can see him being a 105-110 player at best for a while, kinda like Boak. Would prefer to see him replaced with a JPK/Ward/Jelwood/Sloane/Barlow etc if you have the cash

Rest looks pretty good! Good luck :)

[lesleyryan]

Thanks for the response man :) did pride myself on the analysis!

I'm unsure on Leuey as well, don't feel like there's much more value though. I mentioned Bellchambers but again, feel like my second ruck will be an issue regardless. I'm sitting on 65k in the bank though so I'll look into it a bit more! Bon and Wines are just me backing them more than you I spose, as is football :p only time will tell, I'm confident in them!

[Gigantor]

Wow nice analysis!

I'm not convinced on Devon smith, his top 6 scores all occurred when GWS where missing at least one sometimes three of their top midfielders.(Ward, Greene, Whitfield, Shiel, Treloar, Coniglio). If GWS have a good injury run I cant see Smith increasing his average and with the abundance of Mid/Fwds this year I'm not sure is I would be happy with a flat 90 ave at F6