Get Ambrose or Thomas?

[Fid]

Michie for me is safe. Was playing injured last week and should be alright to go next week.

I haven't seen this Fiesty - was he injured during the game?

I thought it was only a cut near his eye and got some stitches?

[roti]

Michie for me is safe. Was playing injured last week and should be alright to go next week.

I haven't seen this Fiesty - was he injured during the game?

I thought it was only a cut near his eye and got some stitches?

correct

[felsty]

Where can I get $$$$ to go Rohan > Thomas?

[GCSkiwi]

I'm not looking at Thomas as a keeper, right now I want to get in as many of the good cash cows in as possible, and Thomas with his break even and scoring power so far fit that bill.. If he continues as is he will reach $450k and I have a plan to trade him to McVeigh before Round 8. That gives him 5 price rises. What will he be after that? $400k?

Who would you trade out to get Thomas? Rohan to Ambrose and Michie to Thomas?
Assuming yes, that leaves you with Laidler doing sweet f.a. on your bench, and then going Michie to Thomas and then Thomas to McVeigh in a few rounds has cost you 2 trades to go from Michie to McVeigh. You could achieve that without getting Thomas as a middle man, 1 downgrade trade to get cash to upgrade Michie to McVeigh, again is 2 trades to go Michie to McVeigh. So get rid of the dead weight first, then...

Not sure what you're saying

I'm saying you're worrying about the wrong trades. Laidler is doing nothing so should be priority number one to trade. Don't freak out over Thomas, yes it would have been an inspired pick at the beginning but I really don't think it's worth a corrective trade now, especially when you have other things to worry about.

1) Trade Laidler. Laidler to Jaensch sounds good
2) If Enright is out for a while, trade to Swallow - looks like he will be fine then.
3) Relax

Yes, Rohan is a bit of a pain, but he's playing. Figuring out how to make the cash to trade him to Thomas is focusing on the wrong thing. You'd need to make a downgrade somewhere to make a sideways trade from a slack cash cow to a firing cash cow. Sounds good in theory but it costs you 2 trades that you really don't need to make.

[felsty]

alright so my theory is...




• Don't want to trade Laidler yet as I don't see any solid backline rookies that are worthwhile to make money. In a perfect world KK will come out and smash it this weekend and I'll upgrade him the week after. In a more perfect world Laidler will play the next 20 games of the year and make me money!
• Because of this the only trade I can do is Rohan > Ambrose for money and unless Enright or Mitchell don't play (Although it's looking increasingly likely that they will) I will downgrade one to Swallow and use the cash to get Matt Thomas for Rohan
• Actually the idea of bringing Jaensch in isn't at all bad. I can see where you are coming from GCKiwi. It's much the same as the Matt Thomas trade in but I'm obviously getting rid of dead wood instead of Michie which I like, and for the fact that Jaensch probably won't make anywhere near the same amount of money that Thomas will.. interesting

[GCSkiwi]

You have an interesting decision to make.

I think people are getting hung up on how much Thomas will make because they are thinking about absolute price. Not the difference between his starting price and what he gets to, i.e. how much PROFIT you make on him. There is every chance Michie could make that same profit, less chance of Jaensch but he will still make decent money - they will just take longer. Thomas will shoot up quickly, just remember this is a long game and we're early in it.

Michie to Thomas comes down to want you really think they can average from here.
I'm pretty sure the formula for price change is 2/3 current value + 1/3 3round average x 5350... that or pretty close to it. If Michie averages 60 from here and Thomas averages 80, by round 10 Michie profits $30,000 less than Thomas. Is that worth the cost of a trade?

If Thomas averages 100 from here he makes ~110k more than Michie, that could be worth it, but also are you going to trade someone averaging 100? And how likely is that given that to date Thomas' best average has been 77?

I don't think it's at all unrealistic to expect Thomas to average 80 from this point on, and Michie to average 65. Posting those scores, they profit the same amount, and you've used a trade to bring in Thomas. If Michie goes any more or Thomas goes any less, you are better off having Michie. Keep that in mind.

[edit] I found in a previous thread the formula is 0.75x current price + 0.25 x 3rd average x 5350 - profit still pretty much come out the same at Michie 65 and Thomas 80. Point is essentially the same.

[felsty]

yeah i get what you're saying.. you have talked me into getting Jaensch for the time being, especially if Laidler doesn't get named as he has to get named a further two times to even jump in price so hopefully I can hold off for a bit

[felsty]

well well well...

Rohan > Ambrose, Michie > Thomas?

Laidler playing with no other real concerns, hope KK spuds it up or I have missed out on a good one there :S

B: Mitchell, Simpson, Enright, McDonald, Langdon, Georgiou (Laidler, Langford)
M: Ablett, Pendlebury, JPKennedy, Beams, Tyson, Polec, Ellis, Dunstan (Michie, Taylor)
R: Natanui, Sandilands (Currie, Derickx)
F: Dangerfield, Roughead, Martin, Parker, Mitchell, Higgins (Rohan, Impey)