Light(er)weight Forward Line?

[timtim]

With more expensive rookies we're going to have to run either:

a) compromised lines (mixture of premos, mid-pricers and rookies) or
b) lighter line(s) (i.e. stacked MID + DEF but spend less than $1M on your ruck department)

I'm leading towards a lighter line and counter intuitively the more I think about it the more a light(er)weight forward line makes sense. Namely because:

- Apart from Danger and Dusty there are not many 'premo' locks - and the best performers from last year are no certainty to back up again (Boomer = potentially too old and less mid time with NDS arriving and emergence of Ziebel/Cunnington, NRoo = old and crap team, Wingard = doubt he'll break-out for the second year in a row)

- Potential PODs are inconsistent scorers (i.e. Petrie, Westhoff, Roughie) or not worth the risk based on their their starting price (i.e. Cloke, Mayne, Monfries, Walters).

- A lot of mid-priced uncertainty (Caddy, Pav, Gunston, Wright, Parket, TMitchell, Dahlhaus)

- Including a DPP-Ruck swing is fraught with danger (i.e.Hale, Dixon)

- There's some value in the small forwards, but this type of role is notorious for inconsistent scoring (i.e. Bennedy. Fasolo, Menzel, Lamb, Rohan) but these guys are also vest candidates to a certain degree

- Higgins = I'm still burnt

- Lack of decent rookies to start, but potential on the horizon

Anyone else thinking of stacking the other lines and then upgrading your FWD once the season starts and we know who will be the better picks?

This could mean running Caddy as high as F3 but potentially being able to start with a MID of Gaz, Pendles, Jobe, Cotch, Beams + rookies)

Thoughts?

[colmullet]

If you don't think there are many decent rookies to start, and dont want Higgins.....but want Caddy at F3......who the hell are you filling the rest of your forward line with??

[timtim]

If you don't think there are many decent rookies to start, and dont want Higgins.....but want Caddy at F3......who the hell are you filling the rest of your forward line with??

Will need to take a risk on the cheaper small forwards, but the idea is not to invest too much money into this line so looking at Daniher (good JS, no vest and 60 ave), Bennedy, JKH, Rohan, Thurlow (if he plays and which other rookie rucks are named), Honeychurch

Risk at the cheaper end of the scale is unavoidable, but it's really the uncertainty in the $350k-$550 that's making me think this way.... still have no idea and probably won't until round 1.

[BoredSaint]

im going with caddy at F4 which is already weaker than normal and still have to wait for the teams to come out to see who I can fill the rest of the squad with..

[dmac07]

Im going the complete opposite, stacking the fwd line and going weaker mid and back due to a few reasons.

-Not many locks in the back premium department, Mitchell locked then who? Most agree Bartel/Walker overpriced, may change roles. McVeigh, high starting price, could he get more mid/fwd time with Shaw returning to rebound from defense with Malceski, is a good mid but averaged 95ish for the past 4 years in that role. Hibberd I had locked but did a hammy, not for the first time, Hanley - tags? Simpson - reliable but ceiling? Also added thomas/everitt as running players.

- Fwds - A few ok mid pricers but may end up being less rooks than back, if jkh isnt named round 1 god help us.

- Small fwds, as mentioned already, many of the small fwds are high vest chances, including Rohan, Bennedy, Fasolo, Lamb. Plus higgins... makes me wanna crawl up in a ball and cry.

- Cheap key position fwds, wouldnt want to rely on young, key position players, in likely bottom 4 teams like Hogan, Boyd, Patton, Clark  even Danniher, who is in a better team, think he could be a serious candidate as a sub out player to inject pace into games. Teams often sub off big guys and see Essendon sticking with Ryder, Carlisle, Hurley on the field instead.

- Mid price backs have better JS? Would argue guys like Suckling, R.Shaw, Webster, Wood all have better js, are lower vest candidates and similar scoring potential than the cheap fwds.

[eaglesman]

I definitely think stacking the forwards is a better option than stacking the backs

[Footyrulz]

This is all well and good.

Problem is, there aren't enough rookies!

[tor01doc]

Im going the complete opposite, stacking the fwd line and going weaker mid and back due to a few reasons.

-Not many locks in the back premium department, Mitchell locked then who? Most agree Bartel/Walker overpriced, may change roles. McVeigh, high starting price, could he get more mid/fwd time with Shaw returning to rebound from defense with Malceski, is a good mid but averaged 95ish for the past 4 years in that role. Hibberd I had locked but did a hammy, not for the first time, Hanley - tags? Simpson - reliable but ceiling? Also added thomas/everitt as running players.

- Fwds - A few ok mid pricers but may end up being less rooks than back, if jkh isnt named round 1 god help us.

- Small fwds, as mentioned already, many of the small fwds are high vest chances, including Rohan, Bennedy, Fasolo, Lamb. Plus higgins... makes me wanna crawl up in a ball and cry.

- Cheap key position fwds, wouldnt want to rely on young, key position players, in likely bottom 4 teams like Hogan, Boyd, Patton, Clark  even Danniher, who is in a better team, think he could be a serious candidate as a sub out player to inject pace into games. Teams often sub off big guys and see Essendon sticking with Ryder, Carlisle, Hurley on the field instead.

- Mid price backs have better JS? Would argue guys like Suckling, R.Shaw, Webster, Wood all have better js, are lower vest candidates and similar scoring potential than the cheap fwds.

Snap.

[Ricochet]

Im going the complete opposite, stacking the fwd line and going weaker mid and back due to a few reasons.

-Not many locks in the back premium department, Mitchell locked then who? Most agree Bartel/Walker overpriced, may change roles. McVeigh, high starting price, could he get more mid/fwd time with Shaw returning to rebound from defense with Malceski, is a good mid but averaged 95ish for the past 4 years in that role. Hibberd I had locked but did a hammy, not for the first time, Hanley - tags? Simpson - reliable but ceiling? Also added thomas/everitt as running players.

- Fwds - A few ok mid pricers but may end up being less rooks than back, if jkh isnt named round 1 god help us.

- Small fwds, as mentioned already, many of the small fwds are high vest chances, including Rohan, Bennedy, Fasolo, Lamb. Plus higgins... makes me wanna crawl up in a ball and cry.

- Cheap key position fwds, wouldnt want to rely on young, key position players, in likely bottom 4 teams like Hogan, Boyd, Patton, Clark  even Danniher, who is in a better team, think he could be a serious candidate as a sub out player to inject pace into games. Teams often sub off big guys and see Essendon sticking with Ryder, Carlisle, Hurley on the field instead.

- Mid price backs have better JS? Would argue guys like Suckling, R.Shaw, Webster, Wood all have better js, are lower vest candidates and similar scoring potential than the cheap fwds.

My thoughts on your points mate

-Not many locks in the back premium department, Mitchell locked then who? Most agree Bartel/Walker overpriced, may change roles. McVeigh, high starting price, could he get more mid/fwd time with Shaw returning to rebound from defense with Malceski, is a good mid but averaged 95ish for the past 4 years in that role. Hibberd I had locked but did a hammy, not for the first time, Hanley - tags? Simpson - reliable but ceiling? Also added thomas/everitt as running players. The same argument could be said for the forward line. With Danger being the only true premo lock. Birchall, Suckling, Simpson are all underpriced locks imo. And there is value in Hurn, Grimes and DSwallow.

- Fwds - A few ok mid pricers but may end up being less rooks than back, if jkh isnt named round 1 god help us. McCarthy is highly rated by Geelong and backed by the club to start round 1. JKH you have already mentioned. Kersten had a setback but they were still expecting him to be ready for round 1. Rohan is only 176k and Blease only 179k. I agree Fasolo has poor JS but then there is Lamb at 244k and Higgins at 254k.

- Small fwds, as mentioned already, many of the small fwds are high vest chances, including Rohan, Bennedy, Fasolo, Lamb. Plus higgins... makes me wanna crawl up in a ball and cry. Rohan plays as a lead-up fwd but agree he has some sub risk. I haven't mentioned Bennedy for this reason also. Lamb not so much risk though.

- Cheap key position fwds, wouldnt want to rely on young, key position players, in likely bottom 4 teams like Hogan, Boyd, Patton, Clark  even Danniher, who is in a better team, think he could be a serious candidate as a sub out player to inject pace into games. Teams often sub off big guys and see Essendon sticking with Ryder, Carlisle, Hurley on the field instead. In his games last year Daniher was only subbed out once and Essendon have now lost Crameri and Gumby. I wouldn't let that scare you off. Same goes for Hogan who Melb will try and get as much game time into as possible. Clark has proven he can score, he just needs to get onto the park.

- Mid price backs have better JS? Would argue guys like Suckling, R.Shaw, Webster, Wood all have better js, are lower vest candidates and similar scoring potential than the cheap fwds. I would argue Shaw, Wood and Webster have similar JS to the fwds mentioned but have lower scoring potential. Shaw has averaged over 73 once in 4 years, compared to Higgins who has averaged 79, 82, 78, 89 in the years prior to last. Lamb and Rohan's averages are severely sub affected, as is Websters. But Rohan is 65k cheaper.

Its only my opinion but I agree with timtim. The value is in the fwd line and mids this year when it comes to 100k -250k players.

[timtim]

Im going the complete opposite, stacking the fwd line and going weaker mid and back due to a few reasons.

-Not many locks in the back premium department, Mitchell locked then who? Most agree Bartel/Walker overpriced, may change roles. McVeigh, high starting price, could he get more mid/fwd time with Shaw returning to rebound from defense with Malceski, is a good mid but averaged 95ish for the past 4 years in that role. Hibberd I had locked but did a hammy, not for the first time, Hanley - tags? Simpson - reliable but ceiling? Also added thomas/everitt as running players.

- Fwds - A few ok mid pricers but may end up being less rooks than back, if jkh isnt named round 1 god help us.

- Small fwds, as mentioned already, many of the small fwds are high vest chances, including Rohan, Bennedy, Fasolo, Lamb. Plus higgins... makes me wanna crawl up in a ball and cry.

- Cheap key position fwds, wouldnt want to rely on young, key position players, in likely bottom 4 teams like Hogan, Boyd, Patton, Clark  even Danniher, who is in a better team, think he could be a serious candidate as a sub out player to inject pace into games. Teams often sub off big guys and see Essendon sticking with Ryder, Carlisle, Hurley on the field instead.

- Mid price backs have better JS? Would argue guys like Suckling, R.Shaw, Webster, Wood all have better js, are lower vest candidates and similar scoring potential than the cheap fwds.

Snap.

Snap indeed. haha

I'm not saying the FWD options look pretty or that there are better low priced options there compared to DEF. Rather just presenting another view on SC strategy that may be a good POD.

I think the lock-ability of DEF players in general is about the same as FWD players. Both lines face the same issue (i.e. overpriced players, uncertainty about consistent output and lack of decent rookies). So IF you went with a lighter FWD made up of the popular cheaper options (i.e. Caddy, Bennedy, Rohan, JKH et al.) and they fail - then you've haven't lost much as everyone is in the same boat, however netted out your stacked MID could put you in front?

Note: same argument can be made for stacking the DEF but IMO there seems to be slightly more 'solid' options in the D4-D6 range compared to the F4-F6 range.

Just by way of example (and it's not perfect by any means) below is a team I've just quickly smashed out to give you a feel of what your team could look like:

DEF:   Smitchel, Hanley, Hurn, D.Swallow, Suckling, McDonald (Clurey, Langdon)

MID:   Gaz, Pendles, Jobe, Cotch, Beams, Dyson, Viv, Dunstan (Ellis, Couch)

RUC:   McEvoy, Sandi (Thurlow, Nanks)

FWD:   Danger, Dusty, Caddy, Daniher, Kennedy, JKH (Rohan, Honeychurch)

Honestly I think most people will run a compromised set up across all lines OR a stacked FWD/DEF and light MID/RUC but just food for thought.... a starting MID of Gaz, Pendles, Jobe, Cotch, Beams is pretty attractive! haha

[Sabretooth Tigers]

 8)
Could be total insanity on my part, but going the opposite way mate. I reckon there will be ample rookies to play Suckling at D4, run a 5 / 5 midfield, Nicnat ( if playing ) and Sandi  in the ruck,  then Wright at F5 and Rohan at F6 up forward.   IMO the forwards will score and maintain, or improve, points and price better than the defence quite substantially. So that's the way I'm going, could be wrong, but going with the gut feeling. Cheers mate.   :)

[BoredSaint]

Honestly I believe only the midfielders are consistent scorers and therefore going both a lighter def (Suckling at D4) and lighter fwd (Caddy at D4, Rohan at D5 and YOLO from there). Allows me to get 5 prems in the middle

[timtim]

Honestly I believe only the midfielders are consistent scorers and therefore going both a lighter def (Suckling at D4) and lighter fwd (Caddy at D4, Rohan at D5 and YOLO from there). Allows me to get 5 prems in the middle

You gotta play insane or stay the same.

[storeymjs]

Is it completely crazy to play Patton, Boyd, Hogan, Caddy (SUBS: Rohan, JKH) in the same team. I have been thinking about it and I understand everyones theory about mids being the best place to get cheaper players who will score better but I already have Polec, Michie, Ellis and Dunstan in my team. To me it makes sense to go a little cheaper in the fwd line and use the cash elsewhere, particularly in the mids (I have 5 premiums incl. Beams). The midfield is the line of your team that scores the majority of your points!!

Patton to me is due to explode this year was looking at the two games he played before his knee injury and he was building up (63 and 79 or something like that). If he can stay fit I can see him making some good cash. I can understand the worry about Boyd (young and KPP) and the same applies to Hogan BUT I think the upside is huge. But then again maybe I'm crazy!