Dissecting the draw

joshua98 · January 17, 2014, 09:50:01 PM

I know there have been spreadsheets posted regarding teams draw, however, I am interested to see what everyone's strategy is regarding the draw, and taking advantage.

So,
- which players will you start with to take advantage of an early easy run
- which players will you avoid because of the first few days (rocky, hanley start with hawks, geelong)
- who will you target during finals

Cheers

Vinny · January 18, 2014, 02:22:36 AM

Honestly haven't looked at my players draws at all, not even once. If they are good enough to be in your side, they should be able to score against any team. In saying that though, if someone has a really strong starting draw, might be worth looking at to get a lead on the pack. I heard WCE have a nice one.

Rocky I will start 100%. I am sure most know but just saying don't be fooled by GWS bullshower. They kill your premium scores in all forms of fantasy.

When picking players based on draw, I think it's best to focus on who they are being tagged by.

Eg. Say Fyfe is playing GWS, shower team but gun tag. I would rather him go and play say North and get no tag but North are better side.

Ringo · January 18, 2014, 08:52:33 AM

Eagles and Adelaide imo appear to have the early season favourable draw. This is one reason why I am considering Darling as a forward early. Could become a keeper but should also make enough to upgrade if required.

ben_020285 · January 20, 2014, 11:50:06 PM

I think that when deciding who to start based on opposition, you should just focus on the forwards. The backs, mids and rucks won't be as effected when playing an easy team compared to the forwards.

Dees have a very easy early draw so a fit Mitch Clark will be a lock in my side. Fingers crossed he is fit for round 1.

As Ringo said, with the Eagles early draw, Darling also has to come into consideration. The question will be whether he becomes a keeper though as he is at an awkward price. Hopefully he can post good scores against the better sides as well this year.

Bulldogs, GWS and St Kilda also have an easy early draw but there aren't really any forwards that I'm interested in from those sides.

On the flipside, the Lions, Pies, Dockers and Cats have a very difficult draw therefore I will be avoiding Zorko, Cloke, Pavlich, Motlop or any other forwards from those teams in my starting side.

T Dog · January 21, 2014, 12:54:39 PM

Interesting thread here ....I have a slightly different view on how to assess the draw ...its not on who the team is playing but who is likely to play on who? eg, Zorko, Cloke , Pav ..who is the matchup on them and who is going to stop the ball being fed to them?...just a thought.. 8)

_wato · January 21, 2014, 07:06:41 PM

Quote from: T Dog on January 21, 2014, 12:54:39 PM
Interesting thread here ....I have a slightly different view on how to assess the draw ...its not on who the team is playing but who is likely to play on who? eg, Zorko, Cloke , Pav ..who is the matchup on them and who is going to stop the ball being fed to them?...just a thought.. 8)

That's an interesting way of looking at it mate, may have to look at that also.

Vinny · January 22, 2014, 01:32:40 AM

Quote from: T Dog on January 21, 2014, 12:54:39 PM
Interesting thread here ....I have a slightly different view on how to assess the draw ...its not on who the team is playing but who is likely to play on who? eg, Zorko, Cloke , Pav ..who is the matchup on them and who is going to stop the ball being fed to them?...just a thought.. 8)

I agree 100% T.

_wato · January 22, 2014, 09:25:47 AM

I must admit the only time I really do take your theory T dog into account is when I choose my ruckman because they have opposition ruckman you know they'll be playing on all game, whereas others are always switching and changing. I also look at opposition taggers for my super premiums such as Ablett and Pendlebury in the mids too.

I may have to look further into it also, thanks again.

Sabretooth Tigers · February 05, 2014, 11:57:41 AM

???
Anybody else thinking like this ??
Adelaide, West Coast and St Kilda appear to have the best first three rounds and both of the top super prems face the Crowley tag in that time. So thinking of dropping one of those super prems out til perhaps Rd. 4. I already have S Selwood, P Dangerfield, R Sloane in my team so playing with the idea of bringing in a Scott Thompson, Priddis, Luke Shuey, Montagna or Steven Jack for those rds for the high scores and their money making propensity. Must not touch the cash difference. The theory being that say L Shuey, scores very well and his price rises 50k+ and the prem drops 50k+, I'm stealing points and making money. The worst possible senario is Crowley falls over, the super prem doesn't drop in price but I still have the money to reverse the situation at any time. Am I blowing bubbles in the snow, or could this be practicle ?? ?? ::) ??? :) :) ;) ;)

T Dog · February 05, 2014, 07:51:00 PM

Quote from: Sabretooth Tigers on February 05, 2014, 11:57:41 AM
???
Anybody else thinking like this ??
Adelaide, West Coast and St Kilda appear to have the best first three rounds and both of the top super prems face the Crowley tag in that time. So thinking of dropping one of those super prems out til perhaps Rd. 4. I already have S Selwood, P Dangerfield, R Sloane in my team so playing with the idea of bringing in a Scott Thompson, Priddis, Luke Shuey, Montagna or Steven Jack for those rds for the high scores and their money making propensity. Must not touch the cash difference. The theory being that say L Shuey, scores very well and his price rises 50k+ and the prem drops 50k+, I'm stealing points and making money. The worst possible senario is Crowley falls over, the super prem doesn't drop in price but I still have the money to reverse the situation at any time. Am I blowing bubbles in the snow, or could this be practicle ?? ?? ::) ??? :) :) ;) ;)

I don't ::) Trades will run out late in the season..potentially

Sabretooth Tigers · February 05, 2014, 11:38:54 PM

:)
Has the potential to 1 trade a premium in rather than trade two rookies to get a prem. I'm going to try it so I'll let you know in advance how and who so we can see if it's worth it. Thanks for the feedback mate. Cheers. ;)

aussied · February 15, 2014, 08:47:04 AM

i currently have 201k left over with a pretty solid team, rucks however are Hmac Sandi and have Dixon in the FWD line.

thinking of holding that 201k off till round 4 to up to a solid prem.

Pokerface · February 17, 2014, 12:32:38 AM

Quote from: aussied on February 15, 2014, 08:47:04 AM

i currently have 201k left over with a pretty solid team, rucks however are Hmac Sandi and have Dixon in the FWD line.

thinking of holding that 201k off till round 4 to up to a solid prem.

You may as well up to the solid prem now. 2 weeks of price rise (say 60k) just wouldn't be worth using a trade and the points missed over 4 weeks.

tor01doc · March 11, 2014, 01:10:43 AM

You are all dreaming - except maybe one of you. Overall is most unlikely.

Money leagues and bragging rights leagues are where it's at.

For leagues, rounds 1 and 2 don't really matter. Don't get too stressed by Brisbane's woeful draw because their games against Hawks and Cats don't count for leagues.

Same for teams with so called easy games.

Maybe worth a look if you are honest and realistic in your goals.