Jeremy Cameron

[Watto]

How about Jeremy Cameron?!

The 2013 All Australian Full Forward kicked 62 goals despite consistently attracting the opposition's best defenders. With Mumford, Lamb, Boyd and Patton coming in, this must free up Cameron to some extent as opposition defences are stretched. He isn't yet even 21 years old, so natural improvement should be absolutely expected. Combine that with the burgeoning midfield brigade at GWS - the likes of Treloar/Shiel/Coniglio/Scully/Greene/Whitfield/D Smith/Hoskin-Elliot plus H Shaw - now better serviced with Mumford in the ruck, and even better things could be expected of Cameron in 2014.

Third year breakout, anyone? Early in their AFL careers, take note of how other power forwards performed:
Nick Riewoldt - (DT average) went from 83ppg in 3rd year to 100 in 4th
Lance Franklin - (SC) shot up a huge 28ppg from 63 in 2nd year to 91 in 3rd
Jack Riewoldt - (SC) went 70 (3rd year) to 92
Jonathan Brown - (DT) 70 (3rd) to 88. The next year Brown averaged 86 DT (he went backwards!) but also a huge 114SC
Matthew Pavlich - (DT) 80 (2nd) to 88. But with the introduction of SC scoring, Pav's DT average of 91 in his 5th year equated to a SC average of 111
Taylor Walker - (SC) jumped from 62 (3rd) to 100
Matthew Lloyd - (DT) played 33 games in his first 7 years in the system, then went up 24ppg to 80 in his 8th
Kurt Tippett - (SC) improved from 72ppg in 4th year to 86
Wayne Carey - (DT) 68 average in 3rd year, way up to 89 in his 4th

in those breakout years of reasonably comparable power forwards, an average improvement of 21ppg - some of which are DT scores, so possibly closer to 25-30 point SC jumps. Could this be Cameron's year? Can he go from 70ppg to 95-100? That would put him comfortably in the top dozen forwards in the game.


Clearly the issue with JC as with any key forward is inconsistency, and his reliance on goals for points. Despite averaging 3 goals per game in 2013, he still averaged under 75. He averaged 11 touches per game, never reaching 20, and six times had less than 10 disposals, once against Richmond (ie Alex Rance) Jez was shut out completely and got a miserable 2 touches for the whole game. As a result, JC doesn't have a huge ceiling, as evidenced by arguably his most impressive game vs Collingwood in Rd 18, where he kicked 7 goals, yet scored only 120. Unlike J Roughead, Dixon, M Clark, Petrie, Tippett, Cameron won't get (m)any points from hitouts. The arrival of Mumford just about ensures he'll get even less than his 2013 tally of 2. Cameron also had barely over 1 tackle per game in 2013; so when he's not getting the ball, Cameron simply isn't going to be scoring many points.

The other issue with Cameron is how he would fit into your side? With most locking in Dangerfield and Martin at F1 & F2, would you be confident enough with JC at F3, where common alternatives include Roughead, Cloke, Franklin, Rioli, Parker, Chapman, Sylvia? Or can you fit him in at F4, ahead of cheaper options in Clark, Fasolo, Rohan, Higgins, Bock and teammates Lamb & Boyd & Patton? If Cameron isn't working out though, you can always trade to one of these guys and free up some cash.
Also, a Round 9 bye means that a trading Cameron after Round 8 to Taylor Walker/Petrie/Harvey/J Riewoldt/Cloke could be solid play.

Cameron will certainly be a Point Of Difference: DTTalk's drawing board has Cameron at just 2.4% ownership.
Can you read much into his NAB Challenge performances? Probably not a whole lot, aside from how the GWS forward line might function with the abundance of big men - who, if anyone, will push up the ground? - and whether the new interchange cap will mean that Cameron might spend more time on the ground, allowing the midfielders to use those precious rotations. He played less than 89% last year, could that be more like 95% in 2014?

AFL.com.au say that JC "hasn't missed a beat" throughout preseason (http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-02-08/lists-by-positions-forwards-part-one)
Has he missed out on your side though?

[Bully]

As a general rule I don't go near KP players who haven't yet broken out, even those that have require extreme caution. If I was going to select a mid pricer it would be Pav, who is priced to score 80 but could easily score 100+, he's only 40k dearer than Cameron and has the runs on the board. Hawkins is also another one who has a solid season behind him, and then there's the injured KP players in Clark & Walker. If he was 80k cheaper I would seriously consider, but at 392k he's too big a risk.

[Dayze]

Great write up bro.
A player who hasn't even crossed my mind.

I think the situation at gws is so different to all those other key forwards its hard to draw comparisons.
Unfortunately, until gws become competitive, future fantasy stars such as treleor, Cameron, shiel, Whitfield etc. just aren't really relevant yet.

The best write up I've read on here for months, good to see someone thinking outside the box. Well done wato.

[Danzac]

He's 100k too much to start with when you can have Tex for 299 (whenever he comes back) and M.Clark for 249.

If he is going bananas later in the season he might be an upgrade option

[Grufflez]

Ahhhhh Wayne''the king''Carey,was one hell of a SC player..was in all of my teams throughout the early 90's  :o

[colmullet]

The kids a freak no doubt but until he gets a consistent supply of ball from the middle his scores wont be consistent, will have the odd great game though, maybe another year or two till the team is looking at making the eight and then he will come into his own