Melbourne Cup Tips

[kilbluff1985]

1. Dunaden(1) $41 58.5kg

$41 Someone is taking the piss! Dunaden is WAY OVERS, for a horse that is proven at the distance and in Australia (2 wins from 3 starts) he should be more around a $17-21 chance, which is where we rate him.            You can NEVER ride off a past Cup winner, and although on paper his form doesn't warrant as much respect he will surely be a chance. History isn't on his side with age.

Prediction - 11+



2. Green Moon (10) $41 57.5kg

Needs slow tempo, which won him the cup last year 5th up, went into the race last year cherry ripe winning the Turnball 3rd up, this year he will fall 1 run short & will find it hard to go back to back adding an extra 3KG & with fitness a problem I can't see him as a major player. Didn't offer much sectional wise in the Cox plate compared to some other Cup runners & probably won't go back to back.

Prediciton - 11+



3. Red Cadeaux (23) $67 56.5kg

Champion Jockey Gerard Mosse has been booked to steer Red Cadeaux into his 3rd consecutive Melbourne Cup tilt.
Back in 2011 RC was a nostril away from winning in the closest ever finish behind Dunaden. Since then he has gone on to win and place in some of the worlds biggest and richest staying races including the HK Vase (1st) & the Dubai World Cup (2nd) both with Mosse onboard.
Last start finished a massive 11L behind highly fancied Voleuse de coeurs who he gives another 2KG to, only kicked on and made no ground on other horses, is a proven stayer but can he mix it with Europes best this year? Looks to be on the path to retirement, another 8YO who's chances look slim, which have been made worse from the poor barrier draw.

Prediction - 11+



4. Sea Moon (7)  $17 56.5kg

1 of the highest rated stayers in the world is here. We know the distance won't be a problem, but if the race is slow like in 2012 he may be in a bit of trouble, as he loves high tempo and if it's not on, he'll probably have to create it himself.

Team Williams know how to win this race, and have brought him over exactly for this race! I think Robbie Hickmont knows he is at peak fitness and hence not running him in the Caulfield Cup makes me think he will PEAK in the Cup and be a MAJOR PLAYER!

Reports are he is fresh, drawn ideally and expect him to hit the line as one of the better chances.

Prediction TOP 5



5. Brown Panther (6) $21 55kg

I still don't know too much about this guy, reports out of Werribee are he is travelling well and has put on some good strength since arriving, but looking at his runs he looks very hit and miss with some bad times and some good times. In a Melbourne Cup there is no room for bad times and apart from his Goodwood Cup win, he has lost to some average European horses who don't make the cut. I honestly believe their are too many good horses coming over that I rate better to have him in my top 6 or 7, and probably rates on par with a horse like Jet Away or Masked Marvel. Has won at the distance, which is a bonus but too many ahead of him.

Prediction - TOP 10


6. Fiorente (5) $7.50 55kg


Came to Australia 1st up last year and stayed the trip in a slow ran race, he's prep this time has been completely different, he'll be 5th up and coming off a solid ran Cox Plate which he ran well in finishing strongly. He will have no problem staying the trip but for him to beat some of these champion European stayers who are fresh Ollie will need a lot of luck & the $7.50 doesn't suggest much value. A winning chance, but I want at least $13-14 to take him on. Maybe a good option for Double Fixed odd's at $15's.

Gai has followed Team Williams lead up into this race with this Guy and his form has been great with champion Jockey Damien Oliver onboard, drawn ideally he is a major player.

Prediction TOP 5



7. Foreteller (15) $26 55kg


Has ran beyond the 2400m once finishing 5th in the BMW to FIVEANDAHALFSTAR, so their is a huge ? over him running the 3200m, the ultimate staying race in Australia. Chris Waller has been looking for reasons all week not to race him, but he has giving him a crack and will run him in the race, no confidence from a trainer has me thinking he won't be a risk to win this race and with that in mind as well as the distance I don't think he can win. His form has been close to Fiorente leading in, but I think he peaked in the Cox Plate and won't running out the 3200m

Prediction - 11+


8. Dandino (4) $13 54.5kg

Craig Williams was booked aboard until he got offered the ride on Mt Athos, I think this guy is extremely talented but at 7YO he is getting on, and wont be a major threat, well under his $13 suggests.

All runs this year have been of average standard bar his monster Caulfield Cup run which was run up front at a killer fast tempo, allowing him to cruise home from the back of the field after only jogging.

Can't win.

Prediction 11+


9. Ethiopia (14) $81 54.5kg

Broke down in the cup last year after running a super 4th in the Cox Plate. Although he has only won 1 race, he has been born and breed to stay and this guy gets better with distance.

Ran on saturday and with the new age Cup tempo, the old Bart Cummings approach hasn't worked well in recent years for horses backing up just 3 days later.

I think he is a run short and will be a major player 100% fit come the Sydney carnivals.

At $21-1 a place he is worth $5 with Tom Waterhouse who are paying 5 placings.

Prediction 11+


10. Fawkner (8) $17  54.5kg


Born as a pure 1400-1600m horse, Fawkner has blossomed with age and run a superb Caulfield Cup winning by 1.5L at his first ever attempt over the 2000m. Was that his grand Final or will be see 1 more monster effort? He loves Flemington 9 starts for 5 wins and 3 placings, majority of those at the 1400m. In form horse who is getting a lot of support, Stable jockey Nick Hall on board, he is definetly a chance, only issue for me is the distance.

Prediction 11+


11. Mourayan (19) $151 54.5kg

Ran an ok 7th in the Cup last year, before going on to win the Sydney Cup at the distance this year. Form since that has been average, 3 day rest & weighted poorly for his credentials compared to these runners, I expect to see him end his career after this run.

Prediction - 11+


12. Seville (9) $19 54.5kg


We have a serious contender! Team Williams simply purchase horses to win Melbourne Cups & after his strong Irish prep in 2011 Williams made an offer to coup this guy to his new home.

Although he has only won 2 races, he has placed in some of the best races in the world behind some true champions. Last year was 2nd behind Green Moon in the Turnball, he has close to a year off which from what I hear to beleive was training to mould him into another Green Moon, training him extremely hard.

He come back this prep & has raced in close to identical fashion as Green Moon did last year, running average races 1st and 2nd up getting into things, before winning the Metrop G1 in Sydney and then running a race in the Cox Plate finishing nicely. All the boxes looked ticked here for him to peak at his home track with champion Hugh Bowman onboard, he is a major threat to the Europeans.

Prediction TOP 5


13.SUPER COOL (13) $51 54.5kg


Put in a gutsy effort in the Cox Plate in a higher tempo race which suited him going forward. The Melbourne Cup is all about sustaining pressure and the bumps and hits and knowing when to ease up after going hard early, I think this guy can definitely sustain the pressure and is a top 8-10 runner, but I just can't see him beating some of these champion European stayers who have been trained and will look to peak for this race. Last year ended his prep in the Derby finishing 2nd and has come back to win some pretty good races including the Australian Cup at Flemington. Another following the Team Williams lead up & I think he is well over the odd's and from the whispers he looks fit and is going well, this is his grand final

Prediction TOP 5



14. Masked Marvel (2) $26 54kg

We dont know enough about this guy, looking at his european record he has ran some good times and won some class races, but has really declined in the past 2 years putting in some average performances, last winning in 2011. Finished 11 lengths off Mt Athos & hasn't really impressed in Australian yet.

Odd's will remain around the $26-31 mark not many punters know enough about this guy, but I'll happily risk.

Prediction 11+



15. Mount Athos (22) $10 54kg



Absoulutely butchered last year by Ryan Moore in the Cup, finishing a gallant 5th clearly the best run in the cup with the fastest final 400m, this guy can only improve!

I would expect this to be his last crack at a big race like this & is weighted well to tackle the cup for a 2nd time.

Word out of Werribee is he is looking in career best form and is raring to go, barrier 22 is an issue I think he can win but I'm happy to risk at the $10 mark with some top quality European horses coming over for their 1st crack who's form leading in looks better.

Prediction Top 10



16. Royal Empire (11) $21 54kg

Godolphins only runner this year this lightly races colt has placed on 11 of 13 occasions and will be 5th up. Should the tempo be extremely quick which I really doubt, he can't win, but he'll look for a forward run and with the right run he can run a cheeky race, but I'm happy to risk

Prediction 11+



17. Voleuse de Coeurs (21) $19 54kg


I was dissapointed to see her draw the carpark, I thought she could be a real chance after her smashing 6L win in the St Leger. She is a contender that can really have a quick turn of foot if the race is ran to a slow pace and she can get easy access over whilst the going is slow and be hard to catch, but I expect her efforts to do that with take a lot out of her & will be a much better prospect come 2014, she looks good enough to win, but I'll be risking her to win now.

Top kiwi jockey James McDonald who rode Fiorente into 2nd in last years Cup claims VDC has a better feeling and rates her higher then Fiorente. Working really well at Werribee.

Prediction TOP 10


18. Hawkspur (18) $14 53.5kg



This QLD 4YO has all the attributes to potentially win a Melbourne Cup as a 5-6 YO, Loves a fast tempo race and has an enormous close however, he is still learning and isn't a giant horse, so I don't think he's enormous close which he shown in the Turnball stakes and Caulfield Cup will be enough to complete with the closing times some of these European horses and bigger horses such as Sea Moon have.
Will finish in the first 10 horses & is a good place chance.



Prediction - 11+


19. Simenon (12) $19 53.5kg

Heavily races 7YO who was once a hurdler now looks to follow in the footsteps of hurdler turn cup winners in Vintage Crop and Media Puzzle. His huge wins in the UK havn't really been taken into account until now, where he has been backed in from $81 to $19 and is now becoming a serious player to the punters.

My research on this guy to be honest has only really been this week as I didn't have him in my sights earlier, his run in the Hebert Power was great and he ticks the boxed to be a big chance, Kerrin McEvoy knocked back the opportunity to take Simenon, opting to go with his Godolphin counterpart.

I don't think he can win, but he is the biggest worry I face if I decide to leave him out of my exotics.

Prediction Top 10


20. Ibencenco (17) $81 53kg

Geelong cup winner who looks to follow in the footsteps of Americain and Dunaden, unfortunetly I can tell you now, this won't happen! Likes the distance but is stepping up to a different class tomorrow.

Prediction 11+


21. Verema (3) $15 53kg


5 Yo mare with a good european resume but has raced in fields of 9 or less in her 13 starts.

She has no problem covering the 3200m but if the pace is hot she my not be able to withhold the pressure, and from an inside barrier she may not be able to get the preferred run she is capable of.

She looms as a danger and a top 10 chance, but happy to risk her the win.

Prediction TOP 10



22. Dear Demi (16) $21 51kg

She has had an unbelievable campaign & again the 3 day break in the modern era Cup won't be a help for her, she has a good turn of foot and can be positioned at the front or back of the field (where she is best) I just don't think she can mix it 3 days after with the likes of some of these champion horses, she looks to be around the top 10 mark, but I think ran her grand final in the McKinnon.

Prediction 11+


23. Tres Blue (20) $26 51kg


Gai Waterhouse has claimed Tres Blue is the horse to beat this year. Time and time again Gai makes bold statements which bite her in the bum, but she thinks Tres blue is better then her star 2012 place getting runner Fiorente.
With such a light weight, this colt must be seriously respected, if he can manage to sustain the tempo and pressure, he with be very hard to catch, or be a chance to run them down if it's ran at a crawl.

Tommy Berry will ride him similar to the way Shamus Award was ridden in the Cox Plate by C.Schofield, Reports are he is getting very strong and they feel he is in his prime, loves a wet track, so if the cup day has rain BACK HIM, I think he is a big chance regardless of weather, barrier a problem.

Prediction Top 5



24. Ruscello (24) $61 50kg

This guy will lead our Melbourne cup, with the 50kg he would be silly not to, Schofield will look to get over early & will try and create a fast tempo to kill the legs of the other horses, only thing is, I think after racing Saturday + the energy he will need to burn to get over from the carpark will see his tickets maybe spent at the 300m when the field will swamp him.

Prediction 11+



TOP PICK

Seville

TOP 5
Seville
Sea Moon
Fiorente
Super Cool
Tres Blue

Best Roughie
Super Cool $61-1

[kilbluff1985]

Those were from a betting website