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wise move?

Started by quinny88, April 12, 2013, 03:00:55 PM

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quinny88

I have Tom Lee on my forward bench, I hung onto him hoping he would be played and this week he gets that chance.

I dont have Dwyer.
With a B/E of -103 should I be trading Lee>Dwyer then Dwyer>Lee in 2 weeks time if Lee is holding his spot.

Dwyers JS has been questioned from the start but even as a sub he is going to make good money this week and hopefully he can do enough to get a game next week as well before the swap to Lee.

Thoughts?

Lions01

Id be very temptied to make that trade.

Pro's
Pocket big cash
See Lee's scoring ability, if he's shower your not relying on him and could keep Dwyer.

Con's
Use 2 trades

Id probably do it, if you didnt and Dwyer countines his form and keeps getting selected you'll fall behind quickily, especially if Lee gets dropped. It's only 2 trades for worse case scenerio

quinny88

Quote from: Lions01 on April 12, 2013, 03:27:49 PM
Id be very temptied to make that trade.

Pro's
Pocket big cash
See Lee's scoring ability, if he's shower your not relying on him and could keep Dwyer.

Con's
Use 2 trades

Id probably do it, if you didnt and Dwyer countines his form and keeps getting selected you'll fall behind quickily, especially if Lee gets dropped. It's only 2 trades for worse case scenerio


Yeah im deffinitely leaning towards it at the moment. Just wanna get a few opinions.
2 trades definitely a negative but thats what the extra trades are there for i guess :P

Lions01

Quote from: quinny88 on April 12, 2013, 03:33:40 PM
Quote from: Lions01 on April 12, 2013, 03:27:49 PM
Id be very temptied to make that trade.

Pro's
Pocket big cash
See Lee's scoring ability, if he's shower your not relying on him and could keep Dwyer.

Con's
Use 2 trades

Id probably do it, if you didnt and Dwyer countines his form and keeps getting selected you'll fall behind quickily, especially if Lee gets dropped. It's only 2 trades for worse case scenerio


Yeah im deffinitely leaning towards it at the moment. Just wanna get a few opinions.
2 trades definitely a negative but thats what the extra trades are there for i guess :P

It's a risk either way, get burnt by using the trades, or potentially fall behind if Dwyer smashed it and Lee spuds it.
With 30 trades, you can make a few luxury type trade IMO

Blues Blues Blues

I thought about it, but went Karny > Dwyer to free up cash, plus he is dropped and Lee named.


quinny88

Quote from: Blues Blues Blues on April 12, 2013, 04:01:40 PM
I thought about it, but went Karny > Dwyer to free up cash, plus he is dropped and Lee named.



Yeah I would have done this but I also did Karny > JJK which was a must imo

Marstar

It's not enough money for 2 trades IMO.

quinny88

Quote from: Marstar on April 12, 2013, 05:17:48 PM
It's not enough money for 2 trades IMO.

But by not doing it arent I running a big risk of Lee only playing 1 or 2 games and being dropped while Dwyer could continue his good form and hold a spot?
If I make the trade I sort of cover my ass more

woofy

How much does Dwyer have to reach before it can be worth trading him in? $250k? $300k? If he can reach $250k before Lee plays his third game I say go for it.

Marstar

Quote from: quinny88 on April 12, 2013, 05:21:26 PM
Quote from: Marstar on April 12, 2013, 05:17:48 PM
It's not enough money for 2 trades IMO.

But by not doing it aren't I running a big risk of Lee only playing 1 or 2 games and being dropped while Dwyer could continue his good form and hold a spot?
If I make the trade I sort of cover my ass more

That would be a very retrospective view in that case, because it is equally likely that Dwyer hits the rookie wall, and loses his spot to the many Pies returning (as has been the the general consensus) while Lee plays many games as 'advertised' by the coach a couple weeks ago saying he is a must buy for SC.

With the balance of information, both scenarios are likely. Therefore i look at the $ vs Trade equation. If you sell Lee i wouldn't buy him back on the bubble if both Dwyer and Lee are named round 5.

It will cost you 1 unnecessary trade to join the bandwagon because most ppl are offloading a non-playing player (e.g. Karny) to get Dwyer (with the above mentioned risk). Some people will even hold off trading out Karny because of that risk, looking to DG to Lee or Rowe or sideways to Gray, Petterd, Knights etc.

Trade might not be Gold, but they aren't Copper either.

cliffnotes: If you go Lee to Dywer don't do it with the view to buy Lee back round 5.

quinny88

Quote from: Marstar on April 12, 2013, 05:38:31 PM
Quote from: quinny88 on April 12, 2013, 05:21:26 PM
Quote from: Marstar on April 12, 2013, 05:17:48 PM
It's not enough money for 2 trades IMO.

But by not doing it aren't I running a big risk of Lee only playing 1 or 2 games and being dropped while Dwyer could continue his good form and hold a spot?
If I make the trade I sort of cover my ass more

That would be a very retrospective view in that case, because it is equally likely that Dwyer hits the rookie wall, and loses his spot to the many Pies returning (as has been the the general consensus) while Lee plays many games as 'advertised' by the coach a couple weeks ago saying he is a must buy for SC.

With the balance of information, both scenarios are likely. Therefore i look at the $ vs Trade equation. If you sell Lee i wouldn't buy him back on the bubble if both Dwyer and Lee are named round 5.

It will cost you 1 unnecessary trade to join the bandwagon because most ppl are offloading a non-playing player (e.g. Karny) to get Dwyer (with the above mentioned risk). Some people will even hold off trading out Karny because of that risk, looking to DG to Lee or Rowe or sideways to Gray, Petterd, Knights etc.

Trade might not be Gold, but they aren't Copper either.

cliffnotes: If you go Lee to Dywer don't do it with the view to buy Lee back round 5.

Certainly, but if that happens I have the ability to flick over to Lee while making a bit of cash as well.

Yeah i wouldnt bother with Lee if Dwyer was continuing to play. My point is more that Dwyer is set to make good money and if he is dropped its easy to bring Lee in.

Baisically its a trade that is garunteed to make me a bit of money while giving me the safety of having both options open. Still not sure if it is worth it though



quinny88

Now with the news that Macaffer is out does this change anything?

Marstar

Quote from: quinny88 on April 12, 2013, 05:57:03 PM
Certainly, but if that happens I have the ability to flick over to Lee while making a bit of cash as well.

Yes but not as much cash per trade as you would sticking to Lee from the beginning :P

Quote
Now with the news that Macaffer is out does this change anything?

I guess so :P

quinny88

Baisically have to make the trade now dont I?

Marstar

I think Mac will be back ... (yeah Poem !!!  8))

But why give up the Dwyer cash ... now you have the same benefit as the OP where Dwyer can be swapped back to Mac in a couple weeks when he's named again ...

BANG !!!