2013 Player Profile: Luke Ball

[Ziplock]

what frustrates me is people thinking that not having a stacked midfield means you're losing points- you're not. The magic number is designed so that you pay for every point you get, therefore, if you use up all your money, you should bescoring the same as anyone else, despite your strategy (providing you dont have a crazy expensive bench). However, if you pick players who are undervalued, and increase on what they're priced out (discounted players, break outs etc.) then you should hypothetically, get the jump on everyone else.

the same can be said for nailing the rookies, but that's if anything, morehit and miss.

for instance, two teams with estimated averages (note, I'll take this as best case scenario, where rookies all perform, midpricers break out at least to some degree, and players who should improve, do*note* rookies aren't actually my speculations on their scoring, but more that for instance, the best back rokies normally average 65ish, best mids 80ish etc.)

guns and rookies team
DEF: B. Goddard 105, J. Grimes 100, B. Gibbs 105, D. Heppell 95, N. Vlastuin 65, K. Jaksch 60 (J. Pittard, B. Staker)
MID: D. Swan (C) 260, G. Ablett jnr 125, S. Pendlebury 118, M. Murphy 110, L. Whitfield 85, O. Wines 75, S. Mayes 70, B. Crouch65 (T. Mitchell, J. O'Meara)
RUC: A. Sandilands 100, M. Leuenberger 90 (J. Witts, B. Grundy)
FWD: L. Franklin 100, D. Cox 100, T. Rockliff 110, D. Thomas 100, J. Daniher 75, T. Menzel 70 (B. Dick, T. Lee)
CASH LEFT: $42,600

mid priced
DEF: B. Goddard 105, B. Gibbs 105, D. Heppell 95, G. Broughton 100, J. Watts 90, N. Bock 80 (J. Pittard, C. Heath)
MID: G. Ablett jnr (C) 250, A. Gaff 100, J. Ziebell 105, L. Ball 90, A. Embley 90, K. Mitchell 80, B. Crouch 75, J. O'Meara 70 (S. Colquhoun, J. Viney)
RUC: C. Pedersen 75, M. Leuenberger 90 (D. Gorringe, M. Gawn)
FWD: L. Franklin 100, T. Rockliff 110, M. Robinson 100, D. Martin 95, S. Higgins 95, C. Sylvia 95 (B. Staker, T. Lee)
CASH LEFT: $71,600

by my count that puts the GnR at 2183 and the MP at 2195.... not a substantial difference, but the midpriced team allows for faster upgrading as well, and the speed in which a team is completed is even more essential in this new competition- it allows you to  just sideways trade situationally- for instance, abletts playing carlton, who he historically does not score well against in  recent years in round 18, the same round that swanny happens to be playing the giants, who he'll carve- straight swap them. (not the best example, since by round 18 everyone will have a full team anyway, but you get my point). 

[tbagrocks]

Midfield rookies including O'Meara, Crouch, Viney, Wines, Hrovat, O'Rouke, Macrae, Whitefield and more, I would say a few can easilly ave 15-20 points more than the back and forward rookie priced players

Agree here that a midfield does not need to be stacked, especially with all the talant that could play in round 1-2 from the midfield priced rookies, that is where the big and quick money will come from

Just because you start with Ablett, Swan, Boyd, Beams and Cothcin doesnt mean you will start better ;)

[essendon2]

so happy that finally someone has the same views as me! Ziplok you genius .

there are hardly any FWD rooks - especially if Staker gets injured again.

at the moment I've got Knights at F6, 4 Gun MIDS + Embley (Swan, Ablett, Redden, Jack, Embley) and 4 gun DEF (Goddard, Grimes, Gibbs, Hanley).
Got Nroo, Jack, McEvoy and Hanley for their dream starts !

Mid rooks is where the $$$ is made.
only rooks I'm starting at the moment = Mitchell, Crouch, O'Meara, Hrovat, Pittard and Staker

[Bones Bombers]

Please correct me wrong if this post is wrong as I'm not 100% sure how the price increases work.
Luke ball is priced at $343,100. If he averages 90ppg will his price increase to around $463,900, which is Jodan Lewis's starting price(avg 90.1ppg). Meaning an increase of $120,800?
Oliver Wines is priced at $156,700. If he averages only 60ppg will his price increase to around $309,800, which is Brent Moloney's starting price(avg 60.1ppg). Meaning an increase of $153,100 and possibly more?

As I said I could be way off. Picking rookies is also hard but geez there is a lot to be made with the right ones and the trade rules mean we can pick them up on the bubble.
Lots of people are saying Ball, Embley etc will go up quicker.
How does it work guys?

I see Embley is $80k cheaper, so he is a bit different. Better pick than Ball IMO.

[Mr.Craig]

Please correct me wrong if this post is wrong as I'm not 100% sure how the price increases work.
Luke ball is priced at $343,100. If he averages 90ppg will his price increase to around $463,900, which is Jodan Lewis's starting price(avg 90.1ppg). Meaning an increase of $120,800?
Oliver Wines is priced at $156,700. If he averages only 60ppg will his price increase to around $309,800, which is Brent Moloney's starting price(avg 60.1ppg). Meaning an increase of $153,100 and possibly more?

As I said I could be way off. Picking rookies is also hard but geez there is a lot to be made with the right ones and the trade rules mean we can pick them up on the bubble.
Lots of people are saying Ball, Embley etc will go up quicker.
How does it work guys?

They might be saying that because Ball would be expected to perform on a more consistent level than a rookie. Also rookies are at greater risk of being vested or dropped which can stall their price rises. Regardless of this, if you want to make the most money I'd certainly go with a well chosen rookie ahead of Ball.

[me]

looks like lots of ppl are talking themselves out of a bargain pick, this guy is pretty much a lock

[SydneyRox]

With the extra trades available it is going to let us pick some smokies and trade them if not performing early. Guys like Ball and Embley have to be considered.

[penskifile]

Not sure exactly what his price will rise too, but if he averages 90 you would be happy.

Every player is the same. Must play 3 games for a price change, then price changes every game after that.

[demon_spud]

While I wrote this I came across:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/more-news/complications-with-hamstring-tendon-graft-set-back-luke-balls-return/story-e6frf9jf-1226592744074

So looks like a non-starter.....

But you can apply it to other Mid-pricers vs. Rookies (exceptional)

But to what I was working on:

An Average of 90 player should be about $460,000 (current Magic Number)
An Average of 95 player should be about $490,000

So as a money maker he might only net you $140k-150k once he reaches his BE.  This is a desirable bear minimum for a cash cow if you're thinking of trading him.

Some great rookies if you pick the right ones will earn you 300k-400k (Treloar (82avg, Greene 96.2 (a keeper)) and give you the same amount of points.

Greene started off on 134k (first 6 rounds: 99, 107, 54, 90, 122, 50 avg 87) took until rnd 8 for him to have played 6 games. Was valued at 350k and would have made you 220k if you traded him.

Ball won't make you as much money, and would be a long term keeper and possible last upgrade, if he is playing each week.

Need to consider Job Security, but since Ball is coming back from injury, hasn't played in NAB yet, is not 100% fit he might not make those scores to make you money, and might actually drop in price to begin with, with some sub-affected scores.

Once he is fit and getting TOG he could pull some big scores out as he will be fired up. (2011 peaks of 120, though had a couple of 60s) If he returns to form, great....otherwise.....

For cash cow look elsewhere as there are a lot of good rookies putting their hands up as long as they get their 7-8 rounds early to make cash.

Now trades are unlimited (2 per week) it's hard to put a monetary value to them, since you just trade in someone who will make cash for someone who will drop in price. Just need to choose the best on.

Should be a prize for the person with the most cash in bank and the highest team value. Stock market!!!! Screw the average highest team score.

[Ricochet]

http://dream-stats.com/stats/player/price/110
This is a great site for predicting scores. Unfortunately it will only give you price changes based on 3 games.

[checkraise]

While I wrote this I came across:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/more-news/complications-with-hamstring-tendon-graft-set-back-luke-balls-return/story-e6frf9jf-1226592744074

So looks like a non-starter.....

But you can apply it to other Mid-pricers vs. Rookies (exceptional)

But to what I was working on:

An Average of 90 player should be about $460,000 (current Magic Number)
An Average of 95 player should be about $490,000

So as a money maker he might only net you $140k-150k once he reaches his BE.  This is a desirable bear minimum for a cash cow if you're thinking of trading him.

Some great rookies if you pick the right ones will earn you 300k-400k (Treloar (82avg, Greene 96.2 (a keeper)) and give you the same amount of points.

Greene started off on 134k (first 6 rounds: 99, 107, 54, 90, 122, 50 avg 87) took until rnd 8 for him to have played 6 games. Was valued at 350k and would have made you 220k if you traded him.

Ball won't make you as much money, and would be a long term keeper and possible last upgrade, if he is playing each week.

Need to consider Job Security, but since Ball is coming back from injury, hasn't played in NAB yet, is not 100% fit he might not make those scores to make you money, and might actually drop in price to begin with, with some sub-affected scores.

Once he is fit and getting TOG he could pull some big scores out as he will be fired up. (2011 peaks of 120, though had a couple of 60s) If he returns to form, great....otherwise.....

For cash cow look elsewhere as there are a lot of good rookies putting their hands up as long as they get their 7-8 rounds early to make cash.

Now trades are unlimited (2 per week) it's hard to put a monetary value to them, since you just trade in someone who will make cash for someone who will drop in price. Just need to choose the best on.

Should be a prize for the person with the most cash in bank and the highest team value. Stock market!!!! Screw the average highest team score.

thanks for the info bro. you make some great points, if im looking to make good cash then ball isnt the best pick

[pommyadam]

http://dream-stats.com/stats/player/price/110
This is a great site for predicting scores. Unfortunately it will only give you price changes based on 3 games.

cheered just for that link
that is SO cool